Tai Tuivasa vs Marcin Tybura Prediction, Picks, Fight Preview, Odds, Stats

We came away from UFC 299 with a hefty 12.7 units of profit and an ROI of 115%. All 3 of our picks for O’Malley vs Vera 2 and Yan vs Yadong were direct hits, and we move on to this weekend’s UFC action. Tai Tuivasa is slightly favoured here with a 55.6% win probability while Tybura is priced at 2.00 odds on bet365. My Tuivasa vs Tybura prediction will be listed in the article below.

For more of my predictions visit our Expert Insights page or my author page. I post NBA, Euroleague, and MMA picks regularly, as well as other sports betting content.

Tai Tuivasa vs Marcin Tybura Prediction: Another Chance to Buy Low

• Selection: Tai Tuivasa Moneyline 
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stake: 7/10

Odds available on March 12th, 2024. Odds may now differ. 

I’m not going to talk too much about the reason for my prediction here. There is already some big action on Tuivasa and I don’t want to wait around for the odds to drop to 1.60 or something.

Here’s the deal – Tai Tuivasa is the better fighter and at almost even money. Picking him to beat Marcin Tybura is a no-brainer. He is much younger, more explosive, and has more knockout power. His losing streak does not concern me because the losses came against top-tier opponents in the heavyweight division. Those opponents were Cyril Gane, Alexander Volkov, and Sergei Pavlovich.

He has had some time to recover from the 2 KO losses in a row he had suffered back in 2022 and I expect him to be back fresh and ready.

I don’t see Marcin Tybura as a very good fighter. His poor timing and slow hands make his reach advantage nothing to write home about. His latest TKO loss to Tom Aspinall was his 5th career loss by KO/TKO.

Tai Tuivasa Stats, Form Analysis: Bam-Bam due for a Comeback

Tai Tuivasa is currently 9th in the UFC heavyweight rankings and holds an MMA record of 14 wins and 6 losses. 13 of his victories have come by KO/TKO and 1 by decision back in 2018 against Andrei Arlovski.

He has also suffered 3 losses by KO/TKO, 2 by submission, and 1 by decision against Blagoy Ivanov. He went on a 5-fight winning streak from 2020 to September 2022 beating Derrick Lewis and Augusto Sakai during this streak.

Since then, Tai Tuivasa has lost 3 fights in a row, 2 of which were KO losses to Ciryl Gane and Sergei Pavlovich. The most recent one was a submission against Alexander Volkov.

He is a deceptive striker with surprisingly good speed and a ton of power behind his punches. His grappling has never been good, but he is very physically strong and is usually difficult to keep down on the canvas. Tuivasa lands 3.98 and absorbs 4.98 strikes per minute.

Marcin Tybura Stats, Form Analysis: Experience or Wear and Tear? 

One spot below Bam Bam in the UFC rankings we have Marcin Tybura, the 38-year-old heavyweight out of Poland. Tybura has an MMA record of 24 wins and 8 losses. He has 9 KO/TKO wins, 6 submissions, and 9 decisions, along with 5 KO/TKO losses and 3 decisions.

He isn’t a particularly powerful puncher. Yet, his grappling experience as a Sambo fighter gives him an advantage in this fight. He averages 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes and he is very difficult to escape from. Even Blagoy Ivanov struggled to escape his top pressure.

Tybura has a 10-centimeter reach advantage in this fight and is taller by 3 centimeters. He is by far the older fighter and his chin has sustained a lot of damage throughout the years. I believe this will be the biggest factor when deciding how this fight goes.

Event Info 

• Event Name: UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs Tybura
• Division: Heavyweight
• Date: Sunday, March 17th
• Time: 00:00 (CET)
• Venue: UFC Apex
• Location: Los Vegas, Nevada, USA

Tybura vs Tuivasa Odds

Tai Tuivasa is priced at 1.80 odds to win in the moneyline market while Marcin Tybura is still at 2.00. Tuivasa by KO/TKO or DQ is 1.95 while Tybura by KO/TKO or DQ is at 3.50. Tybura by submission is at 5.00 odds. 

The bookmakers expect a short one, with NO on to To GO the Distance listed at 1.10 odds and the Yes at 6.50. The Over on 1.5 rounds is at even money, while Over 2.5 Rounds is 2.85 and Under at 1.40.

Either fighter to Win in Round 1 is priced at 2.40 odds, in Round 2 at 3.80, and Round 3 at 6.50. Rounds 4 and 5 are at 9.50 and 13.00 respectively.

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