Sean Strickland vs Paulo Costa Prediction: Betting Picks, Odds, Stats for UFC 302: Expert Picks and Analysis for Saturday, May 29th!

The co-main event of UFC 302 will see Sean Strickland taking on Paulo Costa in a 5-round bout. Sean Strickland is favored to win here at 1.38 odds and a win probability of 68% while Paulo Costa is available at 2.82 odds. My Strickland vs Costa prediction and betting picks are available in the article below!

The former champion Strickland is coming off a split decision loss to Dricus du Plessis and is looking to earn a title fight. Meanwhile, Costa is 1-3 since 2019 and is desperate for his first win in almost 2 years. 

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Strickland vs Costa Prediction and Betting Picks: Former Champ Bounces Back

Saturday, June 2nd, 2024. 04:00 (UK time) 

• Selection: Strickland by Decision/ T-Decision
• Odds: 3.15
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stake: 1/10

It will be interesting to see how these guys approach the fight from a tactical perspective, but I don’t expect to see any takedown attempts. Sean averages just 0.85 per 15 minutes for his UFC career while Costa has 0.45.

Strickland’s biggest advantage here will be his ability to push the pace and earn points with his striking volume. This has been the case in each of his last 5 fights, and if the fight goes the entire 3 rounds, he should have it in the bag. 

The biggest point of concern here is Costa’s striking power. He only threw 67 strikes against Whittaker in his last fight, but Bobby’s face looked beat up. The spinning back-kick and high kick to the head are always a threat. 

That said, Sean has shown an elite ability to dodge and parry a lot of his opponents’ strikes, and he is also quite chinny (don’t look at the Pereira fight). I expect his volume and striking defense to give him the edge in the judges’ eyes. My Strickland vs Costa prediction is for Strickland to win via decision. 

Strickland vs Costa Odds: Books Say Early Finish 

• Sean Strickland to Win: 1.38 Odds
• Paulo Costa to Win: 2.82 Odds
• Over 1.5 Rounds: 1.27
• Under 1.5 Rounds: 3.60
• Over 2.5 Rounds: 1.52 Odds
• Under 2.5 Rounds: 2.40 Odds
• Over 3.5 Rounds: 1.80
• Under 3.5 Rounds: 1.86
• Over 4.5 Rounds: 2.05
• Under 4.5 Rounds: 1.68
• Fight to go the Distance Yes: 2.50 
• Fight to go the Distance No: 1.50 

Sean Strickland Stats UFC: Volume for the W

Sean Strickland holds an MMA record of 28 wins and 6 losses. He became the UFC Middleweight champion after outclassing Israel Adesanya on the feet in September 2023. He lost the title just 4 months after to Dricus du Plessis by split decision despite outstriking his opponent and dealing more damage. 

He is now looking to bounce back by taking on the 7th-ranked fighter in the division – Paulo Costa. 

This isn’t the first time he is in this situation. After suffering a KO loss to Alex Pereira, he faced Jared Cannonier and lost by split decision. Strickland then took a short-notice fight against Nassourdine Imavov and won convincingly by decision. 

Following that, he accepted a fight against a very dangerous striker in Abusupiyan Magomedov and won by TKO. By the way, all of this happened within a year. 

Strickland averages 5.91 strikes landed per minute and is mainly a striking-focused fighter. He uses the Philly shell style and his stance is very tall, but his reactions are quick and he is very difficult to hit. His takedown defense is at 77% and he absorbs 4.33 strikes per minute. 

Paulo Costa Stats UFC: Secret Juice 

Wait. Paulo Costa hasn’t knocked anyone out since 2018? Well, yes, despite the Secret Juice and having a terrifying physique, Paulo Costa’s performances have left a lot to be desired in recent years. His only win in the last 5 years came against Luke Rockhold, a fighter who had been out of the cage for 3 years and was 37 years old at the time. The fight was entertaining though and they got the FOTN nod. 

That said, the shots he did land in his latest fight against Bobby Whittaker did some nice damage. He had Whittaker wobbled after a spinning heel kick to the head but was unable to finish him off. In the end, his opponent won by unanimous decision due to landing more significant strikes. 

This is what is preventing Costa from being a champion in the division. He absorbs 6.38 strikes per minute while landing 6.20 and often loses the striking volume battle. He often lowers his hands randomly to how waist and never really attempts any takedowns. 

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