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Horse Racing Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera 2 Prediction, Preview, Odds, Stats for UFC 299
UFC Bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley will attempt to make his first title defence this weekend at UFC 299 against a well-known opponent Marlon Vera. O’Malley is the heavy favourite with a win probability of 73.5% while Vera is available at 3.25 odds. Let’s break down our Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera 2 prediction in the article below.
Despite winning their first encounter by way of TKO, Vera is coming into this fight as a solid underdog. Still, our MMA expert Milan Stanojic doesn’t see much value in backing him, and his Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera 2 prediction is for the champion to get the nod by decision.
For more daily expert analyses and predictions, visit our Expert Insights section.
Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera 2 Prediction: The Chito Show Again?
These two fighters faced each other almost 4 years ago, and they are set for a rematch at UFC 299 this weekend. Chito Vera won this fight via TKO, but the results do not represent the fight adequately.
O’Malley was the better fighter, landing 4 heavy kicks before sustaining an injury to his foot in the first round, which caused him to slip multiple times and slow down.
We only got a few minutes of action before the fight was over, but I expect something very similar in this one. One of the reasons is that O’Malley has only gotten better in the last few years, and his most recent performance has me convinced that he is the real deal.
However, he is already eyeing to move up to fight Ilia Topuria for the Lightweight title, so I don’t expect him to try anything spectacular here. If the fight goes the distance, I don’t think the UFC judges will have any issues giving him the nod – even if he doesn’t deserve it.
The pressure is on Chito to deliver here – it’s his “red panty night”. He isn’t going to win on points no matter what, and he needs the KO to secure that belt. However, his reach disadvantage and lack of output in recent fights don’t have me convinced that he can do it.
Sean moves very well and only absorbs 3.51 strikes per minute compared to Chito’s 5.16. I think we are in for a boring main event, with O’Malley sniping from a distance and eventually getting the decision W. However the 1.36 odds next to his name are a bit too low, and I’m going with the right to go to the judges’ decision.
- Selection: O’Malley By Decision/ T-Decision
- Odds: 2.30
- Bookmaker: Bet365
- Stakes: 5/10
Odds available as of March 6th 2024. Odds may now differ.
Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera 2 Odds: Suga Heavily Favoured Despite Loss
| Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera Odds | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | Pinnacle | Unibet | William Hill | 1xBet | |
| Sean O’Malley | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.34 | 1.36 | 1.36 |
| Marlon Vera | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.1 | 3.12 |
Odds available as of March 6th 2024. Odds may now differ.
Sean O’Malley Form, Stats, News: The Champ is On Fire
Sean O’Malley is the UFC’s Bantamweight champion after knocking out Aljamain Sterling in August 2023 at UFC 292. I have to admit, I was tipping on Sterling to win by decision at that time and was shocked when I saw him hit the canvas.,
Since the first Marlon Vera fight, O’Malley has won 4 of his 6 fights by KO/TKO, including the championship fight against Aljamain Sterling and one more decision against Petr Yan. One was a no-contest against Pedro Munhoz.
His fighting style is heavily focused on his stand-up striking and movement. Sean uses a lot of feints, leg and front-kicks to the body to keep opponents at a distance. His grappling has also gotten much better in recent years, but he is not an offensive grappler and prefers to keep the fight up.
Sean O’Malley last 5 Fights:
- W vs Aljamain Sterling (TKO, punches)
- W vs Petr Yan (Split decision)
- NC vs Pedro Munhoz (eye poke)
- W vs Raulian Paiva (TKO, punches)
- W vs Chris Moutinho (TKO, punches)
Sean O’Malley UFC Stats:
| Strikes Landed per minute: | 7.25 |
| Striking accuracy: | 61% |
| Strikes absorbed per minute: | 3.51 |
| Striking defence: | 61% |
| Takedown average: | 0.43 |
| Takedown Accuracy: | 42% |
| Takedown Defence: | 62% |
| Submission Average: | 0.4 |
Marlon Vera Form, Stats, News: Chito Eyeing Another Upset
Marlon Vera is currently the 5th-ranked fighter in the division, having won 5 of his last 6 fights. He is coming off a unanimous decision win over Pedro Munhoz in August 2013 at UFC 292. This fight was entirely on the feet with only 1 takedown attempt per fighter and Vera eventually won the significant strike battle by 141-113.
Vera holds an MMA record of 23 wins and 8 losses. 13 of those wins were by way of finish, while all 8 losses were by decision. He has never been knocked out or submitted in his entire professional MMA career.
Chito has also been active since the first O’Malley fight, going 5-2, defeating Dominick Cruz, Pedro Munhoz and Rob Font. His 2 losses came against Jose Aldo back in late 2020, and Cory Sandhagen in March 2023.
Marlon Vera Last 5 Fights:
- W vs Pedro Munhoz (Unanimous decision)
- L vs Cory Sandhagen (Split decision)
- W vs Dominick Cruz (KO, head kick)
- W vs Rob Font (Unanimous decision)
- W vs Frankie Edgar (KO, front kick)
Marlon Vera UFC Stats
| Strikes Landed per minute: | 4.37 |
| Striking accuracy: | 50% |
| Strikes absorbed per minute: | 5.16 |
| Striking defence: | 51% |
| Takedown average: | 0.58 |
| Takedown Accuracy: | 39% |
| Takedown Defence: | 70 |
| Submission Average: | 0.9 |
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