Marcin Tybura vs Sergey Spivac 2 Prediction, UFC Betting Picks and Fight Analysis for August 10th

UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs Spivac 2 takes place this weekend on August 10th at UFC Apex with Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac’s rematch being featured as the main event of the event. The main card is expected to begin at 01:00 on August 11th with a total of 6 fights. Have a look at my betting tip at 2.38 odds, Tybura vs Spivac 2 prediction & fight analysis.

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Tybura vs Spivac 2 Prediction: More of the Same 

Saturday, August 10th, 2024, UFC Apex

• Selection: Tybura to Win
• Best Odds: 2.38 (+138)
• Bookmaker: Spreadex
• Stake: 6/10

Odds updated on August 8th, 2024. 

In their first meeting 4 years ago, Tybura took the unanimous decision victory. He didn’t have much success on the feet, but his 2 takedowns gave him more than 8 minutes of control time. He also outlanded Spivac by 116-40 in significant strikes, and the winner was never in question.

The main question now is whether Spivac has made enough progress during these 4 years to warrant him being the 1.63-odds favorite. I don’t think so. He is coming off a very one-sided loss to Cyril Gane in December 2023 where he didn’t really do anything. He was outstruck 109-11 on the feet and only attempted one lazy takedown.

Although Tybura is nowhere near the striker Ciryl Gane is, we have already seen what he can do against Serghei. He is 38, which is not too much in the heavyweight division and his cardio is still very good. I love the 2.38 odds to his name and I am picking him to win the rematch. My Tybura vs Spivac prediction is for Tybura to win by any means available.

Marcin Tybura Form: Solid Form for the Veteran 

Marcin Tybura isn’t exactly in the top tier of heavyweights in the UFC. He is very good and skillful, but his losses to Tom Aspinall and Alexander Volkov give us a very good idea of where he should be ranked. He is currently the 8th-ranked Heavyweight fighter, and coming off a submission win against Tai Tuivasa 5 months ago.

The main reason behind my picking him to win this fight is the level of grappling he displayed last time against Spivac. Also, this will be a 5-round fight, meaning his cardio advantage will play a big part in the outcome. However, when I saw that Tybura was the underdog once again in their rematch, I was surprised. Yes, he is 38 years old, but in the heavyweight division that doesn’t mean too much. His experience, strength, cardio, and grappling advantage should be more than enough to get him the win this Saturday.

Serghei Spivac Form: Still growing?

Since his loss to Tybura, Serghei Spivac has fought 8 times, winning 6 and losing 2 fights. The losses came against top division talent in Ciryl Gane and Tom Aspinall – two championship-level fighters. His most recent loss to Gane left a bitter taste, especially in a fight where his grappling progress was supposed to be showcased. We didn’t see that, or anything else from Serghei, which is partially the reason why I don’t see him as a good pick here -he tends to get passive.

Another reason is, the 3 wins he had before that Gane fight were against lower-tier opponents. Greg Hardy was already on a KO-losing streak and is no longer in the UFC, the same with Augusto Sakai, and Derrick Lewis is… Derrick Lewis.

I don’t think we have seen enough progress from Serghei’s side to back him here, especially in the role of the favorite. 89% of the betting public is backing him to win and his odds have shortened from 1.91 on July 27th to 1.63 now. No, thank you.

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