Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad 2 Prediction, Picks, Odds and Fight Analysis: UFC 304 Betting

UFC 304 takes place this weekend in Manchester, United Kingdom, and the main event will feature a Welterweight title fight between Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad. This will be a rematch of their bout in 2021, when ref Herb Dean stopped the fight due to an accidental eye poke, rendering Muhammad unable to continue the fight. My Edwards vs Muhammad prediction, betting pick, and fight analysis are in the article below!

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Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad Prediction and Picks: Rocky Does it Again

• Selection: Edwards to Win
• Best Odds: 1.44
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stake: 6/10

Odds updated on July 24th, 2024. 

Belal Muhammad’s name has been in the championship hat for years, yet it’s only now that we see him get his first title shot at age 36. The books don’t see him taking UFC gold this Saturday, with the highest odds to his name being 3.11 at Pinnacle with an implied probability of 32.2%. Meanwhile, Edwards is priced at 1.40 odds at bet365 (71.4%), and as much as I hate backing favorites, I don’t see a path to victory for Belal.

He has been hanging around the top of the division for years, beating guys like Gilbert Burns, Stephen Thompson, and Vicente Luque, but I don’t think his skills have developed enough to compete against Edwards.

Leon has done a ton of work developing his takedown defense and his bottom game, preparing for Usman twice and Colby Covington. His striking has always been lethal, but now…

I don’t see Belal keeping up with his striking on the feet, nor do I think he will be able to drag the fight enough for the judges to give him the nod. I can’t say that a KO win for Leon is out of the question, but Belal has only been knocked out once, and that was against Vicente Luque 8 years ago. My Edwards vs Muhammad prediction is for Leon Edwards to win in the Moneyline market.

Leon Edwards Recent Form: The Champ is in His Prime

I can’t believe that the head-kick KO against Usman was almost years ago. Since then, Leon Edwards has gone on to defeat Usman in their rematch by majority decision, which I believe was deserved. He then took on Colby Covington in December 2023 and won by unanimous decision, outstriking him by 57-44 and landing 2 takedowns.

Leon Edwards is the defending UFC Welterweight champion riding a 4-fight winning streak and in the prime of his career. His grappling skills have developed so much that we expect him to be able to stuff most takedowns against Belal and make his 3rd title defense on Saturday.

Belal Muhammad Recent Form: Give this man a new nickname

I think that Belal Muhammad gets a lot of undeserved hate for being a ‘boring’ fighter and for his general personality. Yes, 17 of his 23 wins have come via decision, and he sometimes goes overboard with the grappling when he doesn’t want to engage on the feet. I think this has improved recently, and even in his first fight against Edwards, he didn’t attempt a single takedown. That said, the crying after the eye poke didn’t help his image, and ‘Remember the Name’ is, in my opinion, a cringeworthy nickname.

Bella Muhammad is on a 5-fight winning streak and in his last 2 he kept it all on the feet and even earned a TKO win against Sean Brady. I don’t think he should be this big of an underdog here, and if there were a handicap in MMA I would be taking Belal here, but I just don’t see him getting the job done, his striking technique needs to be a lot better still.

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