Bobby Green vs Paddy Pimblett Prediction, Picks, Fight Analysis for UFC 304

Bobby Green takes on Paddy Pimblett this weekend at UFC 304 on the main card. Green is priced at 1.80 odds to win at most bookmakers with a win probability of 55.6% win probability while Paddy is available at 2.00 odds. My Green vs Pimblett prediction and betting pick at 1.91 odds are available below

This will be an opportunity for Paddy to finally enter the UFC top 15 rankings, but Green is an experienced and dangerous opponent. 

Bobby Green vs Paddy Pimblett Prediction: Return of the King?

• Selection: Green to Win
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: William Hill
• Stake: 6/10 

Odds updated on July 25th 2024. Odds may now differ. 

I have to admit, I was conflicted because this one could go either way. The biggest factor that swayed me toward Bobby was when I saw the opening odds. He was the clear favorite when the odds opened at around 1.60, and has since climbed toward 1.91. Most likely, it’s because the majority of bettors are picking Paddy to get the job done, more precisely 84% of bettors. 

Although he tends to play around too much and doesn’t always show his full potential, he has the speed advantage, his striking is more precise and his takedown defense good enough to keep the fight standing. 

The biggest point of concern is his chin. Despite having a good chin throughout his career, he has been KOed 3 times in the last 2 years, even though it was against much better competition in Islam Makhachev, Drew Dober, and Jalin Turner. 

All things considered, the betting value is undoubtedly with Bobby in this fight and my Green vs Pimblett Prediction is for Green to win. Don’t be surprised if he ends up being a small underdog 12 hours before the fight. 

Bobby Green Recent Form: The Big 5-0

It’s really impressive to see a fighter with 49 professional MMA fights. Bobby Green has been fighting since 2008 and has amassed a record of 32 wins, 15 losses, 1 draw, and 1 no-contest. 

He has won 4 of his last 4 UFC fights and is coming in after a dominant decision victory against Jim Miller. At 37 years old, he is still just as fast and explosive as ever, and his stamina doesn’t seem to be declining. 

I’ve already mentioned his chin, which can be a huge problem considering he keeps his hands on his waist. We saw what Jalin Turner was able to do in December last year, but let’s face it – Paddy isn’t Jalin. He isn’t as quick on the feet, he isn’t as explosive and his reach isn’t as long. 

I just think stylistically this is a fight Bobby should have in the bag, and the only way he loses is if he fumbles – takes a round off, showboats too much, or gets needlessly clipped in the pocket.

Paddy Pimblett Recent Form: Not there just yet

If you were backing Paddy more than a month ago, when you could get him at 2.50 odds at Unibet, that would have been a good bet. But now, the lines have shifted so much that he’s going to end up being the favorite.

I don’t like this one bit, and I’m not used to lines shifting this much. I re-watched his fights before writing this preview, and I have to say… I expected more progress out of him in the last 3 years. 

He still lowers his hands when he throws big shots, is still a bit slow in the striking department, and gases out quickly. The Tony Ferguson fight was a terrible one because there was nothing to gain and a lot to lose. Yes, he won the fight, but he should have finished it by TKO. That performance made him look worse. 

Some analysts are mentioning grappling as an advantage for Paddy here, but I don’t necessarily agree. Bobby’s base as an MMA fighter is wrestling, let’s not forget. His takedown defense is very good, and the only fighter who was able to effectively wrestle against him was Makhachev. 

Paddy Pimblett is not Islam Makhachev. 

His offensive grappling isn’t as strong and his top game is not nearly as good. Paddy has great BJJ but I don’t expect him to be able to utilize it effectively against Bobby Green. 

This will be a major test for Paddy, but I think he still needs a lot of improvement before being able to reach the rankings. 

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