Brendan Allen vs Chris Curtis 2 Prediction, Odds, Picks, and Full Fight Preview for UFC Fight Night on April 6th

We are warming up for UFC 300 with a Fight Night event one week prior, and we have our Allen vs Curtis 2 prediction ready for the main event. Brendan Allen’s win probability is at 66.7% at 1.50 odds while Chris Curtis is priced at 2.70 odds for the rematch. 

Our MMA expert Milan Stanojic is back with another value betting pick for this weekend. Come back next week as well to Expert Insights for his UFC 300 predictions! Stay tuned!

Allen vs Curtis 2 Prediction: More of the same?

• Selection: Curtis Moneyline

• Best Odds: 2.88

• Bookmaker: Bet365

• Stake: 0.5/10
• Bonus Bet: Curtis by KO/TKO/DQ at 4.33 odds and 0.5 stakes

Everyone else is wrong and I am the only one who is correct. Well, probably not, but I just don’t see any value in backing Allen to win at these odds. He lost by TKO against this opponent 2 and a half years ago. We also have to take into consideration the psychological factor. Allen could use this loss as fuel to demolish Curtis now, or it could be a mental block that prevents him from dominating as everyone expects. 

Also, Curtis could land that one shot that puts Allen away. Allen is on a winning streak, younger, and has more upside here, but I just don’t see him as such a huge favorite. There are too many variables here to comfortably put any money on Brendan Allen. On top of that, almost 90% of bettors are backing Allen to win. No, thanks. 

I wouldn’t advise you to do anything I am not ready to do, so here is what I’m doing. I’m backing the underdog to win and to win by KO/TKO at bet365. I’m using low stakes and splitting them into these two bets for minimal risk and maximum gain. My Allen vs Curtis 2 prediction is for Chris Curtis to win by KO/TKO. 

Brendan Allen – Post-KO Winning Streak 

Allen made his way to the UFC through Dana White’s Contender Series back in 2019 and has fought an impressive 13 times since. He is 11-2 in the organization, with his 2 losses coming against Sean Strickland and Chris Curtis. Both were TKO losses, but he is now on a 6-fight winning streak and coming off a submission win against Paul Craig. 

4 of his last wins came by submission and 3 received performance of the night bonuses. Allen is primarily a grappler with a black belt in BJJ and 14 of his 23 career wins have come by submission. In fact, his first official UFC performance was an RNC against Kevin Holland. 

Allen is currently 6th in the UFC Middleweight rankings and looking to jump to the next level. He is just 28 years old and already has 28 professional MMA fights. He has a reach of 191 cm and is 188 cm tall. 

Chris Curtis – The Action Man Back Again 

With 42 professional MMA fights under his belt and at almost 37 years of age, Chris Curtis is a veteran of the fighting game. He holds a record of 31 wins 10 losses and 1 draw. 17 of those wins came by KO/TKO and 13 were by decision. He has only been submitted once, knocked out once with 8 of his losses coming by decision. 

He also has a reach of 191 cm but is 10 cm shorter than Allen. Curtis is a striker who never attempts takedowns, with 0 attempts in 8 UFC fights. He lands 6 strikes per minute while absorbing 6.58, but his takedown defense is at 92%. I see the takedown defense as the biggest advantage he has in this fight, apart from the KO ability. 

Brendan Allen vs Chris Curtis H2H – Rematch in the Making 

This is a good segment to mention their first encounter back in 2021. Curtis was the more active fighter in that one, landing 61 significant strikes to Allen’s 43. Allen attempted 3 takedowns, but none of them were successful, and 1 submission.

Allen isn’t a very good striker, and his volume is nowhere near Curtis’. His game plan is based on his grappling ability, but it can get him into tough spots. At the end of round 1, his heel hook attempt gave Curtis the top position and the potential to finish the fight via ground-and-pound. I wouldn’t be surprised if something like that happened again. 

Allen is the taller fighter by 10 cm. This will make any takedown attempt even more difficult against an opponent with great grappling defense. 

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