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Boxing Valspar Championship Tips: 101.00 Expert Pick For This Weekend’s Action
Innisbrook Resort is the host venue for the Valspar Championship. Our betting expert Duncan Campbell has prepared his Valspar Championship tips for the 2024 edition of this tournament. Our Valspar Championship tip is for Lee Hodges to win each way at odds of 100/1.
- Selection: Lee Hodges EW (1/5 1-8)
- Best Odds: 101.00 (bet365)
- Stakes: 1/10
Odds via bet365 as at 22.55 March 18th 2024. Odds may now differ.
A Tough Test at Valspar As Ever
Thursday, 21st March, 11:30 (UK)
Traditionally one of the tougher tests of the year, the Valspar Championship has been part of the Florida swing on the PGA Tour for over 20 years.
There are four courses at Innisbrook Resort but it is the famed Copperhead course that will host the Tour’s best this week. Five par three holes along with four par fives makes for a par of 71 that stretches out to 7,340 yards. Thick rough and a Florida breeze can make conditions difficult, as can the treacherous closing holes at the Copperhead course. Known as the Snake Pit, holes 16, 17 and 18 make for a tough finale and playing those three holes in level par for the week will see players make ground on the field.
Course designer Larry Packard created a test that places a heavy emphasis on ball striking, with approach play at a particular premium. Only one of the last seven winners was ranked outside the top ten for Strokes Gained Approach, with all seven inside the top fifteen in this category. I’m placing a strong emphasis on SG: Approach stats in my Valspar Championship tips.
Some observers were disappointed with last week’s relatively easy conditions at The Players Championship. However, that shouldn’t be the case at Innisbrook for the Valspar Championship. One of the more difficult par 71s on the PGA Tour, only twice in the last ten years has there been a winning score better than fourteen under par.
Weather conditions could have an impact on scoring and who ultimately goes on to win this week. Thursday, Saturday and Sunday look to be pleasant with the wind blowing below 12mph. However, Friday’s forecast looks far worse with heavy rain, strong winds and the possibility of a suspension in play due to thunder and lightning.
Value in Backing American Longshot
Scottie Scheffler thankfully takes a week off, having made it back to back wins at The Players Championship but history suggests that we shouldn’t be looking too far down the betting to find a winner. Seven of the past eight winners of the Valspar Championship have ranked inside the top 100 in the world and even last year’s exception, Taylor Moore, was 103rd in the world just before his win.
Just over 50 of the world’s top 100 tee it up in Florida hoping to lift the trophy but it is world number 67, Lee Hodges, who represents best value in my opinion.
Convincing winner of the 3M Open last year, Hodges hasn’t really kicked on with too many eye-catching performances. However, the 3M Open is an event which correlates quite nicely with this one and it shouldn’t go unnoticed that his best finish since that win was only two weeks ago at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. A 12th place finish at Bay Hill was backed up with a solid 35th place finish last week at The Players Championship and his stats suggest he looks to be on a solid footing to mount a challenge at Innisbrook.
Hodges hasn’t performed in his first two attempts at the Valspar but Taylor Moore had only a missed cut in this event prior to victory last year. A solitary missed cut was a record shared by 2016 and 2017 winners, Charl Schwartzel and Adam Hadwin, so course form isn’t of paramount importance this week.
Industry best odds of 126.00 with five each way places are available with bet365 but in a packed field, I prefer the eight places for odds of 101.00.
Value in Missing the Cut
Whilst Hodges may take top billing as my Valspar Championship tip in the outright market, I rate the Miss The Cut market as one of the more attractive special markets. Normally this event would attract a field of 144 players but as it stands at the time of writing, 155 players are confirmed as playing. With a mixed weather forecast and only 65 players plus ties making the cut, we could well see several of the more fancied names fail to make the weekend.
Tony Finau certainly isn’t playing at his best right now and he was under consideration at odds of 3.25 with bet365 to Miss The Cut. Three missed cuts from four starts in this event suggest he’s vulnerable but Brendon Todd and Thorbjorn Olesen look potentially better options at 2.10 and 2.20 respectively. Todd has missed two of his last three cuts coming into this event and has missed the cut in his last three starts at Innisbrook. Olesen missed the cut in his last start at the Cognizant Classic and missed the cut in his only start in this event in 2014.
- Selection: Lee Hodges EW (1/5 1-8)
- Best Odds: 101.00 (bet365)
- Stakes: 1/10
Odds via bet365 as at 22.55 March 18th 2024. Odds may now differ.
