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Our Writers Pick: World Cup Top Scorer
With less than a month to go until kick off, it’s time to have a look at the top scorer market for the World Cup. The World Cup Golden Boot is amongst the greatest individual honours a player can win.
None of Diego Maradona, Pele, Cristiano Ronaldo or Lionel Messi have won this illusive trophy. The latter two can change that in Qatar this winter.
We’ve asked our team of esteemed writers whose name they think will be etched on the trophy in December and why.
Our Writers Pick:
- World Cup Winner
- World Cup Semi-Finalists
- World Cup Golden Ball Winner
- Best Value World Cup Team
- Worst Value World Cup Team
The Ballon d’Or win was the first time in 15 years that either Ronaldo or Messi failed to appear in the top three, as Karim Benzema took centre stage at the pinnacle of his profession. It followed a triumphant La Liga campaign and the fifth UEFA Champions League title as a Galactico. His European exploits saw the Frenchman net on fifteen occasions to swing the honour in Real Madrid’s favour.
With Benzema’s chequered past for France and the fruition of a Ballon d’Or win weeks before Qatar, it feels as if the components of a perfect storm could be brewing. But, first, France must be at it from the first group game against Australia.
That’s not a given regarding the nation in question. If Benzema can feast on a firing supply line of Mbappé, Griezzman, and Deschamps’ riches of talent in the full-back areas, expect France’s focal point to put on a show.
- Selection: Karim Benzema
- Best Odds: 15.00 (Sky Bet)
- Stakes: 0.5/10
Messi’s Last Laugh in Final World Cup
Arguably the greatest footballer of all time is priced at 15.00 to win the World Cup Golden Boot in Qatar which is a price that can’t be ignored. Lionel Messi captained his side to their first major tournament for almost three decades back in July 2021 as they edged past Brazil in the final of the Copa America.
Some doubted the PSG forward’s scoring ability after a poor first season in France in front of goal. This season, Lionel Messi’s goal numbers have risen significantly in all competitions he has participated in.
The seven-time Ballon d’Or winner scored just once in the 2018 World Cup but bagged four in Brazil 2014. That was the third-highest total behind James Rodriguez and Thomas Muller.
I expect this will be Messi’s final World Cup appearance given he is 35 years of age. He’ll want to go out with a bang and with a group consisting of Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Poland, the Argentine could easily score a handful in the opening stages. Being the nation’s free kick and penalty taker, it also provides some extra chance of a goal or two.
- Selection: Lionel Messi
- Best Odds: 15.00 (Paddy Power)
- Stakes: 4/10
Group Stage & Form Helps Messi
The best way to answer this question is to look at the draw. The World Cup top scorer odds have Harry Kane top of the list with Kylian Mbappe and Karim Benzema not far behind. Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo and Neymar are also among the shortest-priced players. That’s hardly a surprise.
Of course, it makes the most sense to back players who represent nations that will go far in the tournament. France, England, Brazil and Argentina are the favourites to go all the way. Looking back, six goals is usually enough to secure the Golden Boot. Ronaldo’s haul of eight in 2002 was the only occasion a player scored more than six in a World Cup since 1974.
Punters should look at the draw. It’ll be a lot easier to score goals in the group stages against worse teams than in the knockout stage. 2018 Golden Boot winner Harry Kane proved that when five of his six goals came in the groups.
Since 1994, 61% of goals scored by Golden Boot winners came in the group stage. Russia’s Oleg Salenko did some of the heavy lifting there. All of his six goals at the 1994 World Cup came in the group stage as Russia were eliminated.
That’s part of the reason why I’m looking at Lionel Messi for this bet. Argentina have one of the easiest group stage draws of the favourites. Games against Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Poland should provide the PSG forward with plenty of opportunities to score.
Messi has recaptured his goalscoring form for club and country. At the time of writing, Messi has bagged eight goals in 14 appearances for the French side this season. A decent haul but nothing compared to his figures for his country. Since Lionel Scaloni was appointed in August 2018, his namesake Messi has found the net 25 times in 35 games. His tally goes up to 10 in six appearances this calendar year. The odds are generous too considering Messi is the main goalscoring threat of this team.
- Selection: Lionel Messi
- Best Odds: 15.00 (Paddy Power)
- Stakes: 0.5/10
Neymar to Continue World Cup Form
Neymar is my pick for the tournament’s top scorer. Like Messi, the Maestro has been enjoying a purple patch for PSG. He has taken up a more central role for this club under Galtier. The forward has started as a left winger, a number 10, and a striker in his last three matches for Brazil; as Tite looks to get the best out of his talisman.
Neymar has scored 71 goals in 125 games for his country. He has six goals in 10 World Cup matches. The forward has scored four goals in his last four internationals. He also has nine goals in nine games in Ligue 1 this season. So he comes into the tournament in red-hot form.
- Selection: Neymar Top Scorer
- Best Odds: 18.00 (Unibet)
- Stakes: 4/10
Another Trophy for Set Piece Star Messi
Lionel Messi has a good shot at becoming the highest goalscorer in Qatar. Argentina face Saudi Arabia who are expected to be one of the sweeping boys of the tournament. Poland and Mexico should also fall when they square off against the Albiceleste in the group stages.
Messi is also the designated set-piece taker, and he could be devastatingly decisive in free-kick situations. The magisterial Argentina forward already has two free-kick goals to his name this season.
- Selection: Lionel Messi
- Best Odds: 15.00 (Paddy Power)
- Stakes: 6/10
10 in 15 Makes Inter Man the Value Pick
I have a favoured but hardly groundbreaking method of picking the top scorer. Siding with a player likely to go deep into the tournament starting from a relatively weak group.
England captain Harry Kane leads the market at odds of 9.00. Being the Golden Boot winner at the last tournament history is against the Spurs man. With no player winning the prestigious award more than once. The likes of France’s Mbappe and Karim Benzema are bound to be popular. As of course will be the iconic duo Messi and Ronaldo.
However, I’m siding with an Argentinian at longer odds. Lautaro Martinez has been having a tough time at a misfiring Inter playing alongside Edin Dzeko. He will relish the switch to international football and his partnership with Messi. Having fired 21 goals in 40 appearances for La Albiceleste he is likely to be the main source of goals. Ten goals in his last 15 international appearances shows the 25-year-old will take good recent form for his nation to Qatar.
- Selection: Lautaro Martinez
- Best Odds: 34.00 (bet365)
- Stakes: 4/10
England Record Will Fuel Kane to Pair of Boots
After winning the same accolade four years ago, Harry Kane will be in the mood to hand over the Golden Boot in Qatar. Then again, when you consider his form for Tottenham in recent weeks, he should have no reason to either.
While there is also the added incentive of finally breaking Wayne Rooney’s scoring record for England and what better time to do that, than on the biggest stage that football has to offer.
With the 29-year-old currently two goals short of Rooney’s tally of 53, this is a figure that could be surpassed before the group stage comes to an end. Should this be the case, a second successive Golden Boot should not be far away either.
- Selection: Harry Kane
- Best Odds: 9.00 (William Hill)
- Stakes: 4/10
