Wood and Nuno: A Match Made in Heaven

Chris Wood is enjoying the best season of his career at the age of 33. He has gone from strength to strength under Nuno Espirito Santo and he continues to have an impact in the Premier League. 

We assess what impact Wood can have in the coming weeks as Nottingham Forest target Champions League football and aim to progress in the FA Cup.  

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Wood is in Esteemed Company

Chris Wood is enjoying his most fruitful season ever in front of goal. He has now scored 18, four more than last season with 12 games to goal. His previous high in the Premier League was 14 goals, a tally he reached with Burnley in 2019/20 before replicating it at Forest last season. 

Nuno Espirito Santo has gotten the best out of Wood and his strike rate under the Portuguese boss puts him in esteemed company. Since Nuno took over, Wood is averaging 0.78 goals per game in the Premier League. In comparison, Luis Suarez averaged 0.82 goals per game under Brendan Rodgers at Liverpool. Sergio Aguero scored 0.83 goals per Premier League match under Pep Guardiola. But why is it that Wood has looked so lethal since the change at Forest?

Nottingham Forest have the second-lowest average possession in the Premier League with 39.92%. In an era where teams are keen to press high and dominate the ball, Nuno has shown there is another way to do things with his side thriving on the counter. Teams that adopt this style usually opt for a quick striker but Wood, despite his lack of pace, has proven to be a huge asset. 

Wood is allowed to drift in and out of games. The three players behind him do much of the work when getting the ball forward on the counter but Chris is the man who can deliver in the big moments. He had just 24 touches as he netted a hat-trick in the win over Brighton.  Wood receives the ball in the most dangerous areas of the field and this has helped him maximise his effectiveness in front of goal. The fact his touch numbers are so low also indicates that he gets his shots off quickly, catching opposition keepers off guard.

Chris Wood is also exceptional in the air. Forest have players who are adept at delivering crossed into the box and Wood, standing at 191cm tall, has made the most of those opportunities. He has netted six headed goals to this point, more than any other player in the Premier League.

Wood Has Already Proven to be Decisive Against Ipswich

Next up for Nottingham Forest and Chris Wood is a clash with Arsenal at the City Ground. The Gunners have plenty of physical players in their squad and are well-equipped to deal with the challenge of facing Wood so we are targeting the weekend’s clash with Ipswich for the striker to score. However, with Arsenal heading into the clash on the back of a defeat against West Ham, there could be vulnerabilities for Forest to exploit. 

The Tractor Boys have the second-worst xGA in the Premier League with 52.77, 2.38 more than Leicester. They conceded four goals at St. James’s Park last weekend and allowed Alexander Isak to get on the scoresheet twice. Wood will also be looking to add to his tally against this lacklustre Ipswich defence. 

Chris Wood is the biggest underlying data overperformer in the Premier League, scoring 18 goals from an xG of just 10.42. His clinical nature makes him a huge threat and he should get a few good chances at home to Ipswich. Wood netted the winning goal against Ipswich from the penalty spot when the teams met at this ground earlier in the season. Let’s hope this cup meeting is no different.

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