Will Newcastle's Goal Drought End Soon? Stats Point to a Comeback

Newcastle United’s start to the season has been marred by close games and scarce points, leaving the Magpies in an unusual spot. Despite winning their last four matches on expected goals (xG), Eddie Howe’s side hasn’t secured three points since mid-September. However, a deeper look into their recent performances suggests Newcastle’s dry spell may be about to end.

Where Have the Goals Gone?

Last season, Newcastle were a goal-scoring force, ranking fourth in the Premier League with 85 goals. This season, however, finishing has become their Achilles’ heel. The Magpies still create plenty of chances but have struggled to convert them, especially in recent matches against Brighton and Chelsea, where they scored just once despite a 3.68 xG tally.

Currently, Newcastle have converted only 6 out of 20 clear-cut opportunities, a drop to a 30% conversion rate compared to their 47.76% success last season. Key players like Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon, and Callum Wilson, who collectively scored 41 goals last season, have yet to hit their stride, with Wilson’s injury adding further complications. Additionally, playmaker Kieran Trippier’s absence due to a hamstring injury has diminished the team’s creativity, putting added pressure on replacement Tino Livramento.

Reasons for Optimism

Despite this rocky spell, Newcastle’s shot-taking approach suggests improvement could be imminent. The Magpies are third in the league for average shot distance at 15.4 metres, demonstrating a consistent focus on close-range opportunities that typically result in higher-quality chances.

Their upcoming fixtures also present opportunities to revitalise their attack. Over the next few months, Newcastle face four teams with some of the league’s most vulnerable defences: West Ham United, Brentford, Leicester City, and Ipswich Town. A fit Callum Wilson leading the line could see the Magpies cash in on these matchups and reclaim a spot in European contention by the season’s midpoint.

St James’ Park: A Fortress to Build On

Newcastle’s resilience at St James’ Park has been one of their strongest assets. Despite the recent 1-0 loss to Brighton marking their first home blank since May 2023, the Magpies have only lost once in 12 home league games, with six wins and five draws. Chelsea and Fulham are the only teams to score more than once against them at home, underscoring Newcastle’s defensive solidity.

Their home crowd could prove pivotal in ending this goal drought. They have a League Cup clash with Chelsea followed by a Premier League fixture against Arsenal—two teams they triumphed over at St James’ Park last season. With these matches and a favourable December fixture list, Newcastle’s fortunes may be ready for a swift turnaround.

As Eddie Howe’s squad pushes forward, recent challenges could soon be met with goals and results, setting Newcastle up for a stronger second half of the season.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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