Widespread inconsistencies create betting value in congested Premier League top half

From Nottingham Forest in third to Fulham in ninth, no team has picked up more than nine points over their last four matches. Fulham are the only side in that group to have avoided defeat over their last two matches.

With such inconsistency from the teams competing for the European places, there is considerable betting value on offer. 

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Consistently Inconsistent

Third-placed Nottingham Forest have lost two of their last three. Fourth-placed Manchester City are only six points ahead of Aston Villa, who sit ninth before home matches against Liverpool and Chelsea. Wins over Newcastle and Forest make Fulham the only side between third and 10th to have not suffered a defeat in their last two matches. 

Of the teams competing for European places, Newcastle are the last side to win three league matches in a row. The Magpies’ winning streak ended over a month ago with three of a possible 12 points collected since then. Eddie Howe’s side were dispatched 4-0 by Manchester City at the weekend.

Chelsea, given the second-shortest odds for a top-four finish, have lost three of their last four across all competitions. Enzo Maresca’s side have taken 10 of the last 27 available points. Nicolas Jackson is injured until April. Their form has been abysmal since a strong run in November and December, having been thoroughly outplayed across their FA Cup and Premier League clashes with Brighton. At 1.73, the Blues are an excellent bet to finish outside the top four ahead of a trip to Villa Park.

A home defeat to Liverpool is the only time Bournemouth have lost in the Premier League since November. They have still only won five of their last 10 in the league. The Cherries are third in expected goal difference, though, and their next nine fixtures are against teams outside the Premier League’s top nine. Given that Andoni Iraola’s side are one point off fourth, they are a high-value wager at 4.50 to finish in the top four.

Wide-Open Race For European Places 

Looking at their production and results, Bournemouth are clearly a top-six-calibre team. Bettors shouldn’t be put off by their reputation – evaluate them on their performances this season, and they rank among the league’s best teams outside of Arne Slot’s winning machine on Merseyside. 

Their results against fellow top-half sides show they are a serious contender for a Champions League spot, including a sensational 5-0 win over Forest, a 2-2 draw at Chelsea, and a 4-1 win away to Newcastle. 

These Premier League outright markets present plenty of value beyond the south-coast outfit, however. The race for Champions League and Europa League places couldn’t be much more wide-open, even with Manchester City showing signs of returning to form with three wins from four.

City’s place in the top four is still far from guaranteed. They were hammered by Arsenal, and have lost to PSG and Real Madrid in the Champions League since the turn of the year. Facing Liverpool, Tottenham, Forest, and Brighton in their next four league fixtures, their defence remains porous – 10th in expected goals allowed – and they suddenly look capable of losing to any opponent. With tricky fixtures to come, the 3.40 price on City to finish outside the top four is worth consideration.

Avoid Newcastle and Forest

A few weeks ago, Newcastle looked like one of City and Forest’s biggest rivals for third and fourth. It’s been an abrupt demise. Blown away by City on Saturday, Newcastle have dropped to seventh, and their upcoming fixtures aren’t especially appealing with Forest and Liverpool up next.

Overachieving Forest have become yet harder to evaluate. Their +0.12 expected goal difference per 90 minutes is solidly mid-table. Their 5-0 loss to Bournemouth looked like the end of their remarkable run. Instead, they responded with a 7-0 win over Brighton and a loss away to Fulham. Newcastle, Arsenal, and City as their next three opponents makes it very hard to have any faith in them to cling onto a top-four spot, and a top-six placing is under threat, considering they are only six points ahead of seventh.

Seventh in expected goal difference and with the sixth-highest points tally since the start of November, Fulham – along with Bournemouth – are poised to take advantage of the teams above them slipping up. The west-London club play their next four league matches against teams below them in the table, and their confidence couldn’t be higher with five wins from seven across all competitions. The 9.00 price on Fulham to finish in the top six is a great longshot option. 

Behind Liverpool and Arsenal, all of the European places are up for grabs. City and Chelsea are favoured by the bookies, but both teams are sufficiently flawed to leave the door ajar. Don’t be afraid to back some of the outsiders in the top-four and top-six outright markets. 

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