Why Trent's exit won’t delay Liverpool's victory parade

Reports have emerged that Real Madrid are in discussions to secure Trent Alexander-Arnold on a free transfer when his contract with Liverpool expires in June.

The possible departure of the right-back could leave a significant void at Anfield, with implications for team dynamics, particularly affecting Mohamed Salah.

But just how much would the Reds miss Trent, and what exactly are Real Madrid acquiring? Our European football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has crunched the numbers.

More than just a defender

Since his debut in 2016, Alexander-Arnold has collected 349 appearances for his boyhood club. Though nominally a defender, he’s recorded the second-highest number of chances created (514) in the Premier League since his debut, trailing only Kevin De Bruyne of Manchester City.

Moreover, Trent accumulated 63 assists since becoming a regular starter in the 2018/19 season, ranking third behind Salah and De Bruyne. His expected assists (xA) of 58.67 since 2018/19 further highlights his creative prowess, with no other defender even close to his numbers.

The synergy between Alexander-Arnold and Salah has been crucial to Liverpool’s attacking force, with the right-back creating more chances for Salah than any other teammate – 100 in the Premier League alone. This season though the right back only provided two league assists for the Egyptian.

Can Liverpool do without him?

Alexander-Arnold picked up an injury against PSG and is expected to play no earlier than the end of April. Yet, could his absence truly disrupt Liverpool’s campaign? 

Despite Arsenal’s recent win over Chelsea, Liverpool remain 12 points clear at the top. BETSiE’s analysis suggests that without their right back, the Reds would merely see a drop of 0.5 points from their projected total.

Even if Alexander-Arnold had been unavailable for the entire season, the impact would have been minimal, with Slot’s men seeing just 0.9 points fewer, according to our in-house tool. 

A game changer, if he rediscovers form

Real Madrid are undoubtedly drawn to his extraordinary talent. However, Trent’s trajectory in England is perhaps more complex than what stat suggests. 

The period from the 2018/19 season to the 2021/22 campaign marked the zenith of Alexander-Arnold’s contributions in terms of goals and assists. Since 2022, however, there has been a noticeable decline in his output.

With the possibility looming that his current injury might have already led to his final performance in a Liverpool jersey, projections for the remainder of the season suggest it could be his least productive in terms of goal contributions per game since 2020/21.  

At 26, an age when many players hit their prime, have Alexander-Arnold’s best days already been witnessed?

If Alexander-Arnold would join Los Blancos today his impact would be very limited, according to BETSiE. In fact his arrival would merely enhance Madrid’s current season total by a scant 0.2 points, increasing to 0.5 points if he had been available from the start of the season.  

Yet, if nurtured correctly, the experience and creativity of Alexander-Arnold could be an asset that rejuvenates the Spanish giants in the longer term.

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