Why Manchester City Remain Favourites Despite Ending Unbeaten Run

Manchester City’s impressive 32-match unbeaten streak in the Premier League came to an unexpected halt with a loss at Bournemouth, ending their record-breaking run. This defeat might cast doubt for some, but a deeper look at the stats suggests City are still strong contenders to clinch the title this season.

The Upside of a Broken Streak

After an exit from the League Cup last week, City’s loss to Bournemouth marks their first back-to-back defeats since September 2023. While this may seem like a setback, Premier League history shows that an unbeaten run’s end can actually set the stage for renewed focus and success. Arsenal’s famous 49-game streak was broken by Manchester United in 2004, after which they faltered in the title race. Conversely, Liverpool’s loss to Watford in 2020 led them to refocus and finish as champions. Chelsea, too, saw their 40-game unbeaten run snapped but bounced back to secure the title under Mourinho in 2026.

These precedents suggest that, while City’s streak may be over, they have the squad depth and tactical experience to use this loss as motivation for the season ahead.

Defensive Challenges Without Rodri

Manchester City’s defensive stability has been tested in recent games, particularly in the absence of key players like Rodri. Despite their early-season struggles, they still sit on 23 points from 10 games, just one point off their tally at this stage last season. However, advanced metrics reveal some potential areas of concern: City’s Expected Points (xPTS) is currently at 18.82, indicating they may be overperforming slightly.

The Expected Goals Against (xGA) figure points to a defensive vulnerability that City have rarely shown under Guardiola, as they’ve now conceded 11 goals. This season, their xGA has climbed above 1.0 per game, marking the first time this threshold has been breached during Guardiola’s tenure. Nonetheless, City’s ability to absorb pressure and their track record of bouncing back from setbacks keeps them in the running.

A Lower Points Race Still Favours City

This season’s title race might not require the 90-plus points typical of recent years, largely due to stronger competition among top-six teams. Liverpool’s current average of 2.50 points per game may not be sustainable, while City’s historic consistency often sees them surpassing the 90-point mark. Guardiola’s squad depth and the experience of players like Kevin De Bruyne, John Stones, and Ruben Dias will be critical as they aim to maintain momentum.

With an upcoming clash against Liverpool on December 1, City face a significant test, but the outcome may not be definitive. City’s 2017-18 season, where they set a record with 100 points, serves as a reminder of their title-winning potential, even when facing challenges.

Why Manchester City Are Still Title Favourites

Guardiola’s strategic approach, combined with City’s depth and adaptability, ensures they remain firm favourites for the Premier League title. Liverpool may lead the pack now, but City’s consistent high-level performance across seasons suggests they’re built for sustained success. Despite their recent loss, City’s statistical edge and tactical resilience underline why they remain top contenders to lift the trophy once again.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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