Why Celtic’s Champions League Goal Market May Be Misjudged by Bookies

Celtic face off with RB Leipzig in their next Champions League fixture, and despite a recent 0-0 draw with Atalanta, stats and past performances suggest there’s value to be found in betting on goals. For punters looking to get ahead of the market, understanding the movement in the goal lines could offer opportunities to capitalise on potential high scoring.

Betting on Goals: Should We Ignore Celtic’s 0-0 Draw?

Celtic’s recent 0-0 draw against Atalanta may not reflect their typical Champions League encounters. Historically, Celtic’s European outings have been high-scoring affairs, especially when facing quality opposition. This year, they’ve already shown vulnerability, such as the 7-1 thrashing by Borussia Dortmund on Matchday 2, where their expected goals (xG) stats were 2.64 against 2.20.

Brendan Rodgers’ squad have consistently struggled against Europe’s elite, often conceding heavily on the road and at home. In past seasons, they suffered substantial defeats to clubs like Atletico Madrid and PSG, with games frequently delivering over 2.5 or even 3.5 goals. With Leipzig’s aggressive style and Celtic’s defensive inconsistencies, expecting goals here isn’t far-fetched.

Why the Market May Be Underestimating Goal Potential

The bookies have currently priced the 3.0 Asian Goal Line at 1.99 and the Over 3.5 Total Goals market at 2.37. These lines suggest a lower-than-expected scoring outcome, potentially influenced by Celtic’s recent 0-0 showing. But examining previous market shifts can provide insight.

For example, the Asian Goal Line of 3.25 for Celtic’s match against Atalanta was initially priced at 2.08, only to tighten to 1.86 by kickoff, reflecting significant money for goals. Similarly, for Dortmund vs Celtic, the line moved from 2.08 to 1.84. Given Celtic’s scoring patterns, there’s a strong case for similar market movements here as kickoff approaches. Monitoring shifts closer to game day could allow punters to secure better odds on higher goal counts.

RB Leipzig’s Attack vs Celtic’s Defence: A Recipe for Goals

RB Leipzig come into this fixture on the back of three losses in the Champions League, but their performances haven’t lacked attacking intent. Although they’ve faced tough opposition in Atletico Madrid, Juventus, and Liverpool, they still managed to score against Juve and pushed Liverpool to a narrow 0-1 defeat. Their direct approach could exploit Celtic’s defensive weaknesses, especially with the home side’s record of conceding early and often in European matches.

Given that Celtic’s defence has struggled with elite forwards, RB Leipzig are likely to create ample chances. For those looking to capitalise on the stats, betting on the Over 3.5 Total Goals or even the 3.0 Asian Goal Line may be worthwhile, with Leipzig positioned to convert against a Celtic side that’s historically leaky in Europe.

Conclusion: Don’t Overlook the Goal Potential

If current Champions League trends and Celtic’s historical patterns continue, there’s clear value in goal-based betting lines. Watching for further market moves before kickoff can provide added confidence in these selections. With Celtic’s defensive form and Leipzig’s attacking setup, expect an open, high-scoring affair at Celtic Park.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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