Why Bettors Should Beware of Arsenal’s Discipline Issues This Season

As Arsenal prepare for their high-stakes Premier League encounter with Liverpool, there’s a growing concern over the Gunners’ discipline issues and the absence of key defender William Saliba. Mikel Arteta’s side has already dropped seven points this season in games where they finished with 10 men. A defeat on Sunday could see them slip seven points behind their rivals, raising alarm bells for both Arsenal fans and bettors alike.

Can Teams with Frequent Red Cards Still Succeed?

William Saliba’s red card against Bournemouth marked Arsenal’s third sending-off in just eight league games this season. This worrying trend of indiscipline could severely hurt their title chances. Historically, only two teams—Chelsea in 2014/15 and Leicester City in 2015/16—have won the Premier League while picking up three or more red cards in a season since 2012.

Under Arteta, Arsenal have racked up 18 red cards since December 2019, more than any other Premier League side in that period. Bettors need to ask: is this an outcome of Arteta’s tactical approach, or are referees simply more stringent when officiating Arsenal matches?

Surprisingly, Arsenal’s discipline in European competition is significantly better. While in the Premier League, they see red almost once every 10 games, in Europe, it’s once every 40 games. This discrepancy raises questions about their playing style, as well as the league’s officiating standards.

Red Cards vs Yellow Cards: The Real Discipline Story

Despite their poor red card record, Arsenal rank among the teams with the fewest yellow cards this season, alongside Liverpool and Manchester City, with just 18 apiece. This statistic might surprise those who label Arsenal as a “dirty” team. Last season, Arsenal picked up 62 yellow cards—19th in the league—while Chelsea topped the chart with 105.

The key takeaway here is that while red cards are grabbing the headlines, Arsenal’s overall discipline, in terms of yellows and fouls, shows restraint. However, the red card risk is real, and it’s something bettors must factor into their strategies.

The Impact of William Saliba’s Absence

William Saliba has been a rock in Arsenal’s defence, with his 75.4% win rate in his first 65 appearances highlighting his importance. In his absence last season, Arsenal’s form faltered. They kept just two clean sheets in 11 matches without him, dropping key points and ultimately losing the title race to Manchester City.

This Sunday, Arsenal’s defence will be tested against Liverpool’s attacking prowess. Bettors should be cautious when evaluating Arsenal’s chances, especially considering their disciplinary record and the absence of Saliba.

Conclusion

For those placing bets on Arsenal this season, their disciplinary issues and Saliba’s absence should be considered red flags. History shows that teams with frequent red cards struggle to lift the title, and Arsenal’s track record under Arteta points to an ongoing issue. Though it’s possible for teams to overcome indiscipline, as Arsène Wenger’s title-winning sides demonstrated, bettors should remain wary of backing Arsenal without accounting for their discipline woes.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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