After just 10 matchdays, the Premier League is proving to be more competitive than ever, with a striking increase in matches ending in draws. So far, 28% of games have finished level—a notable rise from last season’s 21.58% and significantly higher than the historic low of 18.7% in 2018-19. This trend suggests that betting on draws could provide serious value for savvy punters.
Competitive Balance Shakes Up the Table
The English top flight is tighter than ever this season, with only 10 points separating league leaders Liverpool from a cluster of mid-table teams like Fulham, Newcastle, and Bournemouth. This narrow margin between teams has created a league where every game is fiercely contested, and even title favourites Manchester City are predicted to finish with as few as 80 points, far below recent benchmarks.
Despite the increase in draws, it’s worth noting that the Premier League isn’t turning into a defensive slog. Matches are averaging 2.87 goals per game, one of the highest rates in recent seasons, and only 5.7% of games have ended goalless. The competition remains intense, but the closeness of the teams has made it harder for anyone to pull away decisively.
Late Goals and New Rules Boost Draw Potential
The Premier League’s extended stoppage times and increased substitutions this season have changed the dynamics of holding onto narrow leads. Late goals are becoming more frequent, with eight outcomes reversed by goals scored after the 85th minute in the last two rounds alone. On average, each game now stretches beyond 100 minutes, creating additional opportunities for trailing teams to push for equalisers. Already this season, six equalising goals have been scored in second-half stoppage time, making up 11% of all levelling goals—a Premier League record.
These factors add up to a game where leads are more precarious, making late equalisers and, ultimately, draws more likely.
Teams Choosing the Safe Option: A Point is Valuable
The intense competition is also leading some teams to favour the strategic draw, recognising that every point could be critical. Sides like Ipswich Town and Nottingham Forest, with five and four draws respectively, have shown a preference for securing points consistently. Instead of risking late-game losses, these teams are settling for stalemates when the game hangs in the balance, preserving their place in the standings.
Betting Markets Overlooking Draw Value
Despite this rise in draws, betting markets often undervalue the potential for games to end level, due in part to fan loyalty and a preference for teams to win. As a result, odds for draws can present good value, often exceeding implied chances based on current trends.
This weekend, our in-house prediction tool has highlighted three games with strong draw potential, based on current form and historical data:
With odds ranging from 3.25 to 3.40, these games represent opportunities for punters looking to back the draw at favourable prices. This slight edge could provide value for those seeking an alternative betting angle.
Conclusion: The Draw Market Deserves Attention
With Premier League games becoming increasingly competitive, betting on the draw is shaping up to be a smart strategy this season. Whether it’s down to tactical shifts, new rules, or the close-knit league table, draw outcomes look set to remain a trend worth exploring for savvy punters.
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