Why Arsenal are Contenders for the Champions League

Arsenal’s hopes of winning the Premier League have all but evaporated following the draw at Old Trafford but they still have the chance to secure silverware this season. 

Mikel Arteta has transformed Arsenal since becoming the manager. His team has one foot in the quarter-finals of the Champions League, and returning players could be key to getting their hands on the trophy for the first time. 

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Arteta’s Arsenal Transformation

Arteta took charge of his 200th Premier League game at the weekend. Only Pep Guardiola, Jose Mourinho, Jurgen Klopp and Sir Alex Ferguson won more games than Mikel before reaching that milestone. The Spaniard only has the FA Cup, which he won in his first season in charge, to show for it. However, the club have finished 2nd in the past two seasons. It’s safe to say that the club have been on an upward trajectory under Arteta and that could culminate in Champions League success this season. 

Arsenal hammered PSV 7-1 in the first leg of their round of 16 clash. Arteta has been dealt a bad hand in terms of injuries of late, particularly in attack. Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus have all been absent. Mikel Merino has led the line in recent weeks, making the demolition in Eindhoven all the more impressive. With rumours circulating that Saka could return to the team at the end of this month, Arsenal fans have even more reason to be hopeful. 

During Arteta’s first full season in charge of the club, Arsenal conceded an average of 1.05 goals per game, the third fewest in the Premier League. The manager had the second half of the previous season to start putting his stamp on the team, which helped with defensive solidity, but they have continued to improve in that regard. The Gunners have conceded an average of 0.85 goals per game so far this season and are set ot have the best defensive record for a second consecutive campaign. Arsenal also average more possession and shots per game than they did back in the 2020/21 season. 

The Gunners have overhauled their squad in recent years. They have one of the most physically imposing teams in the Premier League, which has allowed them to pose a threat from set pieces. They have scored 10 goals from these situations this season, the fourth-most in the English top flight. The teams’ ability to remain solid and score via set pieces should help them get by until the likes of Saka and Martinelli return.

BETSiE Likes the Gunners’ Odds 

The Gunners are the fifth favourites to win the Champions League. They find themselves in the difficult half of the draw and will face the winner of the Madrid Derby in the quarter-finals. However, that round of fixtures doesn’t start until April 8th. Gabriel Martinelli will have returned to full fitness by then and Bukayo Saka will also be in line to feature. The dynamic pairing would provide more cutting-edge in attack. The fact that Arteta’s barebones attack was able to put PSV to the sword will also be a huge confidence boost with tougher tests to come. With that tie effectively over ahead of the game at the Emirates, Arsenal can afford to rotate their squad.  

Heading into the round of 16 second legs, BETSiE gives Arsenal an 18% chance of going on to win the Champions League, more than any other side in the competition. Their emphatic lead from the first leg is a factor but they certainly have what it takes to slug it out with Europe’s heavyweights. Barcelona, Real Madrid and Liverpool are the other three sides who have been given more than a 15% chance of winning the trophy by our in-house projection model. Of those four teams, Arsenal have the best xGD (expected goals difference) with +0.62. 

Arsenal were narrowly beaten 3-2 by Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals of last season’s Champions League. That experience should help them as they aim to navigate their way to the final this time around. 

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