Week Of Cup Upsets Reminds Us The Value Is On The Underdogs
![Week Of Cup Upsets Reminds Us The Value Is On The Underdogs Week Of Cup Upsets Reminds Us The Value Is On The Underdogs](https://cdn.bettingexpert.com/assets/Queens-Park-goalkeeper-Calum-Ferrie-celebrates-their-victory-1024x576.webp)
Last week was full of surprise results across European football, particularly in cup competitions.
Serving as a reminder that there is always value in backing the underdogs, as highlighted by our in-house projections model, BETSiE.
Our European football expert Daniele Fisichella has looked at some value bets for this weekend.
BETSiE Best Bets (14-16 February 2025) | Odds |
Atletico Madrid vs Celta Vigo: Celta Asian Handicap +1.25 | 1.89 |
St Pauli vs Freiburg: Freiburg Asian Handicap +0.25 | 1.79 |
Monza vs Lecce: Monza Asian Handicap 0 | 1.92 |
Lens vs Strasbourg: Strasbourg Asian Handicap + 0.75 | 1.91 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
The ‘magic’ of the cup spreads across Europe
Sunday’s two biggest cup upsets took place in Scotland and England. Scottish Championship side Queen’s Park knocked Rangers out of the Scottish Cup with a 1-0 win at Ibrox. It was the first time in their history that Rangers lost a home Scottish Cup match against a lower-division side.
Despite 28 shots and an injury-time penalty for Philippe Clement’s side, they lost a match where bookmakers had given Queen’s Park just a 3.7% chance of victory.
Plymouth Argyle stunned Liverpool, the Premier League leaders, in another upset.
With odds as high as 12.14 (implied probability of 8.2%), the Championship’s bottom team defeated the Reds 1-0. One of the biggest FA Cup shocks ever considering that, according to BETSiE, Plymouth’s chances of avoiding relegation are just 7.3%, while Arne Slot’s men have a 92.5% probability of becoming English champions.
In France, the cup magic continued as Division Four side Stade Briochin knocked out Ligue 1 club Nice with a 2-1 win last Wednesday.
The odds for Stade Briochin were 9.28, and a treble bet on all three underdogs’ victories would have returned 3.056 units.
High-flying Freiburg offer good value on the road
In Europe’s top five domestic leagues, there are opportunities to back underdogs at high odds this weekend.
In La Liga, Atlético Madrid, assigned a 62.10% chance of winning by BETSiE, host Celta Vigo.
Los Colchoneros have only lost two league games this season, but have won by more than one goal in just one of their last six La Liga matches at the Wanda Metropolitano.
Celta Vigo have scored in their last four away games, therefore backing Celta with a +1.25 Asian Handicap, meaning if they lose by just one goal margin you’ll win half your stake, could be wise.
In Germany, Freiburg, currently sixth, visit newly promoted St Pauli, who are well above the relegation zone.
BETSiE gives Freiburg a 16% chance of finishing in the top five, whereas St Pauli’s chances of relegation are only 3.5%.
Alexander Blessin’s men are projected to score 0.89 goals this weekend, the lowest among Bundesliga home teams.
With a 31.1% projected chance of a draw, backing Freiburg with a +0.25 Asian Handicap offers value.
Monza’s last roll of the dice
In Serie A, bottom-placed Monza, who recently recalled manager Alessandro Nesta, host Lecce.
Under Salvatore Bocchetti, the Brianzoli earned just three points in six games and are 88.9% likely to be relegated, according to our projections model.
Lecce have lost only two of the last six games, but expected goals statistics suggest they should be bottom, with one point fewer than Monza.
The hosts chances of winning are high at 46.2%, and an Asian Handicap bet for Monza might double your stake.
Lastly, in France, Lens host Strasbourg on Sunday afternoon.
Separated by just three points, Lens have won only three of their last 10 home games. They’ve achieved a win by more than one goal margin twice this season at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis, including a xG-defying success against Montpellier.
Strasbourg are over-performing their expected points by 4.28 and are projected to score 1.37 goals, giving Lens a narrow goal difference advantage of 0.41.
As Strasbourg have only failed to score in one of their last six away games, it can be expected that they won’t suffer a heavy beating in Northern France.
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