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Horse Racing Villarreal vs Valencia Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview
Tom Winch is here with a Villarreal vs Valencia prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview. The pair meet on Sunday afternoon in La Liga.
The hosts have been on a decent run of form if you overlook the 4-0 Marseille thumping in the Europa League. They’ve not tasted defeat in any of their previous La Liga matches. Valencia performs poorly away from home. Just 12 of their 40 points have arrived away from Mestalla. It’s a fixture the home side usually enjoys, given recent results. Our Villarreal vs Valencia prediction is for Villarreal to win the match 2-1.
- Villarreal vs Valencia Tip 1: BTTS – Yes
- Villarreal vs Valencia Tip 2: Sorloth & Duro Over 0.5 Shots On Target
- Villarreal vs Valencia Tip 3: Alex Baena Anytime Assist
Villarreal vs Valencia Prediction 1: Getting With The Goals
Spain, La Liga, Sunday, March 17th, 15:15 (UK)
Villarreal are one of the more entertaining sides across Spain. A whopping 3.43 goals have arrived on average in their 14 matches at Estadio de la Ceramica. Marcelino Garcia’s men have found the back of the net in 12 separate outings whilst recording a single shutout. The hosts have conceded in 25 of their 28 matches this term. Only Granada has managed a smaller number.
Ruben Baraja’s men are a funny old side. Their home record is impressive. It’s a different story when Los Ches ventures away from Mestalla. The visitors have managed a single clean sheet in their 13 away days. Valencia has bagged in eight separate away trips, with 14 arriving in total.
The BTTS bet does appeal. This selection has won in 12 of 14 matches at this venue. Villarreal is vulnerable in defence. Granada and Almeria have conceded more. The pair are well adrift at the bottom.
Valencia can cause the home side problems. Hugo Duro is having an impressive campaign. Can we have faith in a side that’s kept one clean sheet in their last 20 outings? I struggle to see how. That shutout came against the lowest scorers in the entire league.
- Villarreal vs Valencia Prediction 1: BTTS – Yes (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.80
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 6/10
Villarreal vs Valencia Prediction 2: Doubling Down On Two Star
Alexander Sorloth has been incredibly consistent in recent weeks. The Norwegian has started 20 of 24 matches for Villarreal this season. He’s scored 13 times in 1670 minutes. That’s an average of 0.70 goals per 90. Sorloth has bagged more than any other Villarreal player in 23/24.
Valencia will be hopeful Hugo Duro can continue his fine-scoring season. The former Real Madrid man is having his best-ever goal-scoring season. The 24-year-old has found the back of the net 12 times this term from 51 attempts. Duro averages 0.48 goals per 90, a solid return for a side who set up with a cautious approach.
The pair are second and third favourites in the AGS market. They both have a great chance of finding the back of the net in this clash. However, I’m happy to combine the two into a bet-builder approach.
Villarreal’s man has recorded a shot on target in all nine previous La Liga matches. The 193cm striker appeared from the bench in a couple of those matches. He makes an impact.
Hugo Duro has scored 12 of Valencia’s 32 goals this term. He landed this part of the selection in seven of his nine league appearances in 2024.
These sides met in early January. The game ended 3-1 to Valencia. Duro forced a save from the Villarreal keeper. I expect both players to have joy in attack on Sunday.
- Villarreal vs Valencia Prediction 2: Sorloth & Duro Over 0.5 Shots On Target (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.05
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 5/10
Villarreal vs Valencia Prediction 3: Approaching Double Figures
Alex Baena leads the way when it comes to assists in La Liga. The 22-year-old has nine this season, two more than any other player. In a game where goals are likely, backing the Spaniard looks like a good bet.
Villarreal’s number 16 is very creative. He averages 0.43 assists per 90 across the current campaign. Alex is averaging 2.29 accurate long balls per outing. It’s an impressive 2.76 chances created per 90 with 1.95 successful crosses. With the giant Alexander Sorloth lurking in the box, I feel this could be a good angle to attack.
The hosts have scored 24 goals at this venue in 14 matches. They’re almost guaranteed to find the back of the net. Alex Baena is undoubtedly the most creative spark. He’s a talent, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is the one to produce some magic.
Only Rayo Vallecano have failed to score when hosting Valencia. The home side will get chances throughout the game. Baena is likely to play the majority of the 90. Let’s hope he can produce once for the tenth time this season.
- Villarreal vs Valencia Prediction 3: Alex Baena Anytime Assist (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: Awaiting Odds
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 2/10
Villarreal vs Valencia Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, March 12th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Villarreal vs Valencia Team News and Possible Lineups: Hosts Decimated By Injuries
Villarreal host Marseille here on Thursday night in the Europa League. They’re trailing the tie 4-0. I don’t expect they’ll make a comeback. They may rest and rotate several players ahead of this encounter.
Alberto Moreno is unavailable. Albiol, Terrats, Foyth, Suarez, and Pedraza will all miss this match with injuries. I expect the home side to set up in a 4-4-2 formation with Sorloth and Moreno leading the line.
Valencia have the majority of their squad fit and available. Hugo Guillamon faces a suspension for this clash. Mouctar Diakhaby will not play again this season. He suffered a horrific injury in the final stages of their draw with Real Madrid earlier this month.
Hugo Duro is a vital player for the visitors.
Villarreal possible starting lineup: Jorgensen; Kiko, Bailly, Mosquera, Cuenca, Traore, Parejo, Baena, Comesana, Sorloth; Moreno
Valencia possible starting lineup: Mamardashvili; Foulquier, Mosquera, Ozkacar, Gaya, Perez, Guerra, Pepelu, Canos, Duro; Yayremchuk
The Predicted Villarreal vs Valencia La Liga Standings by BETSiE
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the La Liga standings ahead of the Villarreal vs Valencia, currently 11th vs 8th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
Villarreal vs Valencia Standings Prediction
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Madrid | 38 | 27.0 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 76.3 | 27.4 | 49.0 | 88.6 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 38 | 24.0 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 80.6 | 47.7 | 32.9 | 80.3 |
| 3 | Girona | 38 | 23.8 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 79.5 | 49.1 | 30.3 | 78.9 |
| 4 | Atl. Madrid | 38 | 22.0 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 73.8 | 43.2 | 30.6 | 72.7 |
| 5 | Ath Bilbao | 38 | 20.1 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 66.0 | 39.1 | 26.9 | 70.0 |
| 6 | Betis | 38 | 14.8 | 15.0 | 8.3 | 47.6 | 41.6 | 6.0 | 59.3 |
| 7 | Sociedad | 38 | 14.8 | 13.3 | 9.9 | 49.5 | 38.8 | 10.7 | 57.7 |
| 8 | Valencia | 38 | 13.8 | 9.6 | 14.6 | 41.8 | 45.7 | -3.9 | 51.1 |
| 9 | Getafe | 38 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 48.1 | 53.8 | -5.7 | 50.0 |
| 10 | Las Palmas | 38 | 12.9 | 9.1 | 16.0 | 36.9 | 44.1 | -7.2 | 47.7 |
| 11 | Alaves | 38 | 11.8 | 11.1 | 15.0 | 40.8 | 46.2 | -5.4 | 46.6 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 38 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 16.7 | 43.6 | 56.2 | -12.6 | 46.1 |
| 13 | Villarreal | 38 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 16.4 | 56.6 | 70.2 | -13.6 | 43.8 |
| 14 | Vallecano | 38 | 9.4 | 13.2 | 15.4 | 35.9 | 50.2 | -14.3 | 41.4 |
| 15 | Mallorca | 38 | 8.4 | 15.3 | 14.3 | 37.0 | 48.0 | -11.0 | 40.5 |
| 16 | Sevilla | 38 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 17.2 | 44.5 | 55.8 | -11.3 | 38.5 |
| 17 | Celta | 38 | 8.9 | 10.8 | 18.4 | 44.9 | 58.1 | -13.1 | 37.4 |
| 18 | Granada | 38 | 6.0 | 11.3 | 20.7 | 42.0 | 68.1 | -26.2 | 29.2 |
| 19 | Cadiz | 38 | 4.6 | 14.1 | 19.3 | 26.8 | 55.8 | -29.0 | 28.0 |
| 20 | Almeria | 38 | 3.7 | 11.8 | 22.5 | 40.2 | 73.4 | -33.2 | 22.9 |
Match Stats: Home Dominance
- Valencia haven’t won at this venue since 2017, seven clashes ago.
- Only Jude Bellingham and Artem Dovbyk have more goal contributions than Alexander Sorloth.
- These two sides have managed just two clean sheets between them in 27 home and away days respectively.
- Valencia are averaging just 2.54 corners per game on their travels.
Villarreal Fixtures: Two Huge Encounters In A Row
- Vs Atletico Madrid (H)
- Vs Athletic Bilbao (A)
- Vs Almeria (A)
- Vs Rayo Vallecano (H)
- Vs Celta Vigo (A)
Valencia Fixtures: Tricky Tests, Home Contests Key
- Vs Mallorca (H)
- Vs Granada (A)
- Vs Osasuna (A)
- Vs Real Betis (H)
- Vs Barcelona (A)
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