Venezia's unbeaten run shakes up Serie A relegation odds

Venezia’s recent performances have reignited the race to avoid relegation as six teams are separated by just seven points with 10 games to go. 

The Lagunari have secured their third consecutive positive result, clinching a draw against Como, with goalkeeper Iounut Radu being named player of the match for the second successive week.

Can Eusebio Di Francesco’s side stay afloat in Serie A this campaign? 

Our football expert Daniele Fisichella has analysed the relegation betting market in Italy’s top flight. 

xG data offer hope to the Lagunari

Venezia’s season seemed to turn for the worst at the beginning of February when goalkeeper Filip Stankovic, one of Serie A’s best shot stoppers with a 72.9% save percentage, suffered an injury against Udinese. 

However, Filippo Antonelli, the sporting director, executed a last-minute transfer window coup by acquiring 27-year-old goalkeeper Radu (pictured below) from Inter.

Previously overlooked in Milan, where Simone Inzaghi favoured Di Gennaro and later Calligaris as backups to Sommer and Martinez, the Romanian international has been excellent, conceding only four times in the past five matches and preventing 5.69 xG. 

The Lagunari have managed only three wins this season, with only Monza faring worse with two wins in Serie A, and have not secured three points since before Christmas. 

But Venezia’s home form offers some hope; with 13 points from their domestic games, they are averaging one point per game at Stadio Penzo. 

With six of their remaining ten league games to be played in front of their fans, the newly promoted side may yet escape the drop.

At Stadio Penzo, Di Francesco’s (pictured below) men have been particularly resilient, losing only one game by more than a goal margin (2-0 to Atalanta). However, with five of their remaining six home fixtures against teams in the top nine (Napoli, Bologna, AC Milan, Fiorentina, and Juventus), replicating this form will be crucial.

Currently sitting on 19 points, Venezia is projected to end the season with just 28, averaging less than a point per game until the the end of May. Three of their four away fixtures are against fellow relegation battlers Lecce, Empoli, and Cagliari. 

Unless Venezia, who are still winless on the road with just 11 goals away, improves these performances, relegation looks likely. 

Yet, underlying expected goals (xG) data suggests Venezia should actually be outside the bottom three, with 26.11 expected points. Will there be a regression to the mean for Venezia in these last two months?

A three-horse race also at the bottom

According to BETSiE, Venezia’s chances of not being relegated are below 20%. 

Lecce, Empoli, and Parma seem destined to fight for the last spot out of the relegation zone, with their survival chances estimated between 62.9% and 64.4%. 

Both the Salentini and the Ducali have changed managers mid-season, showing signs of improvement. Under Marco Giampaolo, Lecce have averaged a point per game since mid-November, while Parma’s new coach, former Champions League winner Christian Chivu (pictured below), has collected four points in three matches against higher-placed opponents (Bologna, Udinese, and Torino).

However xG data suggests Lecce should be second to last, narrowly tied with Monza, while Parma should be clear of danger with an additional six points. 

But as Verona, third from last in expected points, holds a 92% survival chance, it appears to be a three-horse race.

The best betting value currently rests with Lecce at odds of 4.00, as Serie A’s worst attack, with just 20 goals, leans heavily on Nikola Krstovic, who scored nearly half of them. Lecce have won only once at Stadio Via Del Mare this season, and challenging away matches against Juventus, Atalanta, and Lazio could see them finish below 33 points.

Empoli, winless since 8 December, face a slightly easier schedule but a busier one, with Coppa Italia semi-finals against Bologna. In the 2023/2024 season, the Tuscan club clinched survival at the last minute with a 2-1 win over Roma, but fortune may not favour them this time.

Finally, Parma, with upcoming matches against Monza and Verona, could gain an edge in the survival race if they maintain their current form under Chivu. 

However, if the Ducali fail to collect at least four points from these games, their fate could be sealed, as they face top teams like Inter, Napoli, Atalanta, Juventus, and Lazio in the final stretch.

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