Underdogs Represent Superb Value in Europa League Knockout Playoff

The Europa League knockout playoff round takes place this weekend with several appealing underdogs, including Midtjylland, Roma, and Bodo/Glimt. 

Bookies have provided an array of value bets for this week’s fixtures.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Midtyjylland vs Real Sociedad

Midtjylland have only won one of their last four home matches. Two of those were played in November. Their form since the turn of the year is what really matters, and we’ve only got a couple of Europa League matches to go on. 

The hosts won away to Ludogorets and drew at home to a strong Fenerbahce team. Any rust has been played through, and they are well-rested for this fixture. Real Sociedad, meanwhile, have lost four of their last seven matches across all competitions.

La Real have lost four of their last five matches on the road. Their only win in that spell came against third-tier side Ponferradina in the Copa del Rey. 

Eintracht Frankfurt and Brondby are the only teams to win away to Midtjylland this season. Girona are the only team in the top half of La Liga to have lost at home to Real Sociedad this term. 

Progressing from this tie would be a major achievement for Midtjylland. They are deserving underdogs on reputation alone, but we think they’re worth backing at 4.00. Having beaten Lazio a couple of seasons ago, they are no strangers to upsets. 

Porto vs Roma

Porto are winless in their last three home matches, including a defeat to Olympiacos in this competition. Roma have a poor away record for the season, but they have won two of their last three on the road, and have won seven of their last 12 home and away across all competitions. 

In the league phase, Roma posted a +3.4 expected goal difference compared with Porto’s +2. It’s not a massive gap between the sides, but it is an indication that Roma shouldn’t be such clear underdogs for this match.

Porto are traditionally a formidable team at home. They are far from unbeatable at Estádio do Dragão, though. They have suffered several defeats at home in recent years, including a 4-0 hammering to Club Brugge in the 2022-23 Champions League, and heavy defeats to Atletico Madrid and Liverpool in the 2021-22 Champions League. 

Roma have shown us enough improvement on the road of late to be worth backing here. 

Twente vs Bodo/Glimt

Bodo/Glimt could have been rusty when the Europa League resumed last month. They haven’t played a domestic match in over two months. 

That wasn’t an issue on matchdays seven and eight of the league phase, however. A 3-1 win over Maccabi Tel Aviv and a draw away to Nice left them with four wins and two draws from eight matches in the first round. 

Twente have won three of their last eight across all competitions. They lost to nil at home to Lazio and Union St. Gilloise in the league phase. The hosts haven’t won a continental knockout tie in over a decade.

Bodo/Glimt have more experience at this stage of European competition, having knocked out Celtic and AZ Alkmaar three years ago. The visitors (-0.2) also had a slightly better expected goal difference than Twente (-1.7) in the league phase. The 55.6% implied probability on Bodo/Glimt to avoid defeat in the first leg is too low. 

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