Underdogs Look to Upset Favourites in Knockout Cup Ties

Europe’s domestic cup competitions take centre stage in a packed mid-week schedule, offering opportunities for bettors to back the underdogs in both matches and outright markets.

From Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid to Bologna and Roma in the Coppa Italia, several outsiders are poised to surprise some of the big clubs.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Lack Of European Football Might Be Key

Stuttgart narrowly missed out on a Champions League playoff spot by just one point and will feel confident against an Augsburg side that trails them by six points in the Bundesliga. 

Just a month ago, Sebastian Hoeneß’s side secured a 1-0 victory over Augsburg in a match they dominated, posting 2.62 xG to Augsburg’s 0.34. 

Despite recent struggles, Stuttgart’s strong home form, where they have netted 25 times in the league, the fourth-best record, bolsters their chances against an Augsburg team lacking defensive solidity on the road (only two clean sheets).

With Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen competing for the Bundesliga title and advancing in the Champions League, teams like Stuttgart and RB Leipzig, both out of European competitions, along with Werder Bremen who face 3. Liga side Arminia Bielefeld, could offer solid value in the outright market.

A Surprise Result Before The Madrid’s Derby

Over in Spain, Atletico Madrid, having closed the gap at the top of La Liga to just one point behind Real Madrid, present a favourable option in the outright market at 4.50 odds. 

Hosting Getafe, Atletico are buoyed by their strong home form, having lost just once at the Wanda Metropolitano to Spanish opposition since April 2024. 

They previously defeated Getafe 1-0 in La Liga, boasting 1.84 xG to Getafe’s 0.24. 

José Bordalás’ men’s away struggle is stark, with the second-worst record in attack, managing only eight goals.

Real Madrid, meanwhile, seek to recover from last Saturday’s defeat to Espanyol, where they squandered numerous scoring opportunities. 

Likely to rotate their squad ahead of their Champions League showdown with Manchester City, Los Blancos travel to Leganes.

In a pivotal week for Spanish football, all eyes are on Sunday’s Madrid derby. 

However, potential upsets are on the cards, with Leganes, who have already secured victories over both Barcelona and Atletico this season, offering good value to score home against the reigning Champions League champions. 

Can ‘rested’ Roma maintain their record against AC Milan?

Roma manager Claudio Ranieri shuffled his squad significantly against Napoli last Sunday, opting to rest key players such as Paulo Dybala, Leandro Paredes, Mats Hummels, Alexis Saelemaekers, Artem Dovbyk, and Lorenzo Pellegrini. 

Despite this move, the Giallorossi only conceded 0.36 xG against the Serie A leaders and preserved some energy for their crucial match at San Siro. 

Currently sitting ninth in the table and with just a 0.7% chance of securing a top-four finish according to BETSiE, Roma’s main focus has shifted to their cup campaigns this season.

The visitors have managed only one away win this season, yet they’ve been resilient, with just two defeats in their last 12 matches. 

Meanwhile, Sergio Coniceçao’s men have struggled defensively, registering just one clean sheet in their past 10 outings. 

As a result, backing Roma with a +0.5 Asian Handicap, effectively offering a double chance, could provide solid value for bettors.

Bologna, seventh in Serie A with a game in hand, continue their remarkable improvement in recent months. 

They have lost just one of their last 14 matches across all competitions, including notable Serie A results against Inter Milan, Juventus, Fiorentina, and Roma, as well as an historic Champions League victory over Borussia Dortmund. 

With a strong cup competition pedigree, Italiano’s record, including a 48% win rate in knockout ties over the past two seasons, suggests Bologna could be the real surprise package of domestic cup competitions around Europe. 

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