Chelsea’s recent inconsistent performances have coincided with their star player, Cole Palmer, enduring an unexpected goal drought. 

The 22-year-old has failed to find the net in Chelsea’s last nine matches across all competitions, marking his longest dry spell since moving to Stamford Bridge. 

His last assist in the Premier League was registered on 1 December 2024. The Blues, who accumulated 33 points from their first 16 games of the season, have managed just 15 from the subsequent 12 fixtures. 

They are now projected to finish outside the top four, averaging only 1.54 points per game if this trend continues. 

Can Palmer rediscover his scoring form and help Enzo Maresca’s side defy the odds? Our European football expert, Daniele Fisichella, delves into Chelsea’s predicament.

Change of style is affecting Palmer

Chelsea’s performance levels, as indicated by their expected goals (xG), have seen a notable shift recently. 

During the first 16 matches, the Blues averaged an impressive xG of 2.13, exceeding last season’s mark of 1.96 under Mauricio Pochettino. 

However, in the subsequent 12 Premier League fixtures, that figure has decreased to 1.86. 

Manager Enzo Maresca might accept this trade-off, as the team’s xG conceded has improved from 1.47 to 1.32. Yet, this tactical adjustment appears to have affected the form of their standout player, Palmer.

Initially, Chelsea’s number 20 capitalized on the open play and space available in the more dynamic games. 

Although he has squandered several chances, including a penalty against Leicester City, the increased tactical discipline in Chelsea’s play has allowed opponents more opportunity to double-mark him. 

Last season, Palmer was at the heart of nearly every decisive move, topping the Premier League with a combined tally of 33 goals and assists. This campaign, he has 20 goal involvements with 10 games still to be played, leaving plenty of room to equal his 2023/24 tally.  

Data suggest he’s getting hot again

But his statistics don’t tell the whole story. 

In fact excluding his four goals against Brighton and his three assists in the victory over Wolves, Palmer’s record stands at 10 goals and three assists, highlighting a lack of consistency compared to last season. 

He has managed to score or assist in just 12 games across all competitions so far. 

Also contributing to his reduced numbers is a drop in penalty conversions—from 41% of his goals last year to only 21% this term.

The England international is clearly eager to end his drought, in fact in the past five Premier League matches he’s had 23 shots in total, more than 27% of the entire shots he’s attempted so far in the season. 

Interestingly, Palmer’s underlying metrics have improved, with averages of 3.75 shots per game, a non-penalty xG90 of 0.44, and an expected assists per 90 minutes of 0.27. 

This results in a non-penalty expected goals involvement average of 0.71, a slight increase from last season. 

Despite these positive indicators, his challenge remains converting these chances into goals, as he’s currently underperforming his xG by 1.2. 

Redemption at the Emirates?

Chelsea’s upcoming fixtures in both league and European competition present Palmer with a chance to rediscover his form. 

The Blues are set to face Copenhagen in the second leg of the Conference League, a match in which they’re expected to find the net more than twice. Palmer, who was included in the squad for the first leg but failed to register a shot on target in Denmark, will be keen to make an impact.

However Maresca may opt to rest his best player on Thursday, with back-to-back London derbies against Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur on the horizon. 

Palmer has been a standout performer in these match-ups, contributing five goal involvements in his last five appearances against these rivals since the start of last season.

Despite Chelsea’s low projected chance of securing victory (22.2%) on matchday 29, and an expected goal tally just shy of one (0.98), Arsenal’s recent defensive wobbles could work in their favor. 

The Gunners have managed only two clean sheets in their last nine outings across all competitions, and with the Premier League title seemingly out of reach, they may turn their focus to the Champions League.

With betting odds of 3.60 to score and 2.37 to either score or assist, Palmer could be a smart choice for punters this weekend.

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