Tight La Liga schedule offers a chance to bet against Barça

The Blaugrana will have less than 70 hours to prepare for the Catalan derby against Girona on Sunday, having hosted Osasuna on Thursday. 

The match against the team from Pamplona was originally set for March 8 but was postponed due to the passing of Barcelona’s first-team doctor, Carles Minarro Garcia. 

This situation, in a week when many international players will return from duty with their national teams, has sparked controversy in Spain. 

But does it also provide a chance to bet against La Liga’s leaders in these two home encounters? Our European football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has explored the best strategies.

Flick’s big boys are out

Given that Barça are still in contention for the treble and have virtually no available dates until April 23, Spain’s football governing body has rescheduled the match against Vincente Moreno’s men to this Thursday to ensure all three title contenders have played the same number of games heading into the season’s decisive phase. 

The rearranged fixture date poses significant challenges for Barcelona’s manager Hansi Flick, as he will have a number of players with little rest. 

Barça will be forced to face a match that could see them going three points ahead of Real Madrid in the table without Raphinha, third in Spain for goals plus assists (21) and centre-backs Ronald Araujo, both returning from South America, as well as Iñigo Martínez who’s injured. 

Robert Lewandowski (pictured above), the leader for expected goals (22.4), is also a major doubt for Thursday. 

In fact he asked to be substituted during Poland’s 1-0 victory over Lithuania on the first 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifier last Friday. After scoring the decisive goal the striker gestured to the bench, indicating he needed to come off the pitch. 

Back in September Barcelona were beaten 4-2 by Osasuna, in a game that Raphinha did not start and where the Culers only created 0.75 xG, their third worst tally of the season. 

This season, Barcelona have secured five La Liga home victories by more than a one-goal margin and have picked up two wins and a draw following international breaks. 

However, Flick has not fielded a starting eleven without both the Brazilian and the Pole this campaign. 

Conversely, the visitors have only suffered two away defeats by more than a two-goal margin. Therefore, backing Osasuna with a +2 Asian Handicap—which means your stake will be refunded if they lose by only two goals—could be a prudent strategy.

Derby upset is unlikely

This season there have been numerous instances where the big three clubs have played matches with exactly 72 hours of rest between kick-offs. 

Real Madrid have done this most frequently with 11 occurrences, compared to Barcelona’s eight and Atlético Madrid’s five. 

Barcelona faced a similar scenario against Villareal in September, playing with less than 72 hours of rest after their Champions League game against Monaco. Barça came out of “La Ceramica” with a triumphant 5-1 success. 

Other cases involving the Catalan side have their nuances. The period between the Copa del Rey fixture against Valencia on 6 February and the La Liga match against Sevilla on Sunday 9 February fell just short of 72 hours by half an hour. Also in that case Barça obtained a large victory (4-1). 

Girona suffered a 4-1 defeat in the reverse fixture this season and have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 matches across all competitions. 

Míchel’s side have scored just 11 times away from home and have lost all their away games against the other top-four La Liga sides by at least a two-goal margin. 

With their Brazilian star returning to the starting line-up on Sunday, the hosts are expected to comfortably win the regional derby. 

However, betting on under 3.75 goals asian handicap might be the wisest choice, considering that three of Barcelona’s last seven matches have yielded only two goals.

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