The Race For Europe in the Premier League

Just five points separate 4th and 10th heading into matchday 27 of the Premier League season. Manchester City have a slender advantage over the likes of Newcastle, Bournemouth and Chelsea in the race for the Champions League but there is plenty of football to be played. 

Our expert has delved into the data to identify value picks for a top four and five finish with the table extremely congested. 

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Race for the Champions League

Manchester City hold 4th place after their defeat against Liverpool. The decision to spend lavishly in the January transfer window wasn’t enough to see them progress to the round of 16 in the Champions League but it could be enough to see them return to Europe’s elite club competition next season. Pep Guardiola’s side are a short price to finish in the top four so we are focusing on Nottingham Forest to secure a place.

Nuno Espirito Santo came to the club in December 2023 with the team battling against relegation. He kept them in the Premier League with ease and now Nottingham Forest are eyeing up a return to the Champions League. Forest succumbed to a 4-3 defeat at St. James’s Park at the weekend but showed superb spirit as they attempted to fight back. The team are currently 3rd in the league, three points ahead of both Manchester City and Newcastle. 

Forest have plenty of talent in their ranks. Their attacking lineup has showcased how clinical they can be all season.  Anthony Elanga, Morgan Gibbs-White and Callum Hudson-Odoi have all proven they are capable of chipping in with goals. They support Chris Wood, who has netted 18 goals in the Premier League. Nuno’s super attack are the biggest xG overperformers in the division. Their ability to make the most of the chances that fall their way has allowed them to stay ahead of their rivals and that appears unlikely to change in the weeks to come.

Nottingham Forest face a difficult test in the form of Arsenal on Wednesday night but the result isn’t a foregone conclusion. Mikel Arteta’s side looked flat with a lack of attacking options against West Ham. Forest have no such problem. They have won six of their last seven at the City Ground across all competitions, scoring an average of 2.43 goals per game in the process. A result against the Gunners would be a massive boost in their pursuit of Champions League football. 

Race for the Europa League and Conference League

With Newcastle and Liverpool contesting the EFL Cup final, there are likely to be two Europa Conference League places on offer via the Premier League. The cohort of teams fighting for Europe will be aiming to finish as high as possible, with an additional Champions League place also a possibility and it is Newcastle who have the edge at this time. However, Bournemouth’s price appeals the most. 

Liverpool lead the way in terms of underlying data. Arne Slot’s side have an xPTS (expected points) of 61.07, the most in the Premier League. Unsurprisingly, Arsenal ranks second but it is Bournemouth who have the third-highest xPTS with 46.52. They also have the third-best xG in the division with 53.46.

Andoni Iraola has done a remarkable job since taking over at Bournemouth. The Cherries had a rocky start to last season when the manager first came in but he quickly turned things around. The team rank highly for chances created and high turnovers. A lot of this is owed to the player’s tireless work off the ball and how the manager sets them up. Iraola likes his players to be aggressive when pressing and look to play vertical passes when they win the ball back. 

Bournemouth have suffered just two defeats in their last 14 Premier League matches. Over that period, they have scored an average of two goals per game and conceded just 0.93. The manager has had to contend with a plethora of injuries during that period, particularly in attack. Evanilson and Enes Unal have been ruled out for a lengthy period but the unwavering style has meant there has been no drop-off.

The Cherries are a point behind Newcastle, who currently occupy 5th sport going into matchday 27. The Magpies face Liverpool next, giving Bournemouth the chance to move ahead of them in the table if they can get a result in Brighton. 

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