The Cards Column: Vying For Championship Stay

The winners continued to flow in last week’s Cards Column, with Matt Kirby finding two more winning match picks as League Two delivered. That’s seven of the last nine bets that have copped!

This week, Matt’s focus is on the Championship relegation battle on Good Friday before his player pick goes in the Premier League on Saturday.

• Derby vs Luton: 20+ booking points each team
• Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth: Tyler Adams To Be Booked
• Norwich vs Portsmouth: Portsmouth most booking points & Portsmouth 20+ booking points

Referee Appointments: Key games for Linington & Woods

There’s a Premier League debut for Andrew Kitchen on Saturday when West Ham host Southampton. He’s averaging 3.7 cards per game this season, but has shown just three cards in his last three Championship games.

Stuart Attwell takes charge of Leicester v Liverpool, which could see the Foxes relegated. Jarred Gillett heads to Villa Park for the key game in the race for European qualification between Aston Villa and Newcastle.

In the Championship on Good Friday, James Linington has the six-pointer as Derby welcome Luton to Pride Park. Craig Pawson has the Midlands derby between play-off rivals Coventry and West Brom, while card-shy Dean Whitestone has Leeds’ trip to Oxford.

Charles Breakspear takes his yellow cards to EFL Trophy winners Peterborough. The Posh welcome Stockport to London Road. Fellow card-happy whistler Thomas Parsons is in charge of Shrewsbury v Wigan towards the bottom.

In League Two, Martin Woods has the clash between relegation-threatened Carlisle and promotion-hopefuls Port Vale. Abigail Byrne has her fifth EFL outing after showing eight yellows last weekend.

For more from Matt, and those Easter Monday EFL referee appointments, give him a follow on X – @m_kirby95.

Derby vs Luton: The fear of the drop

England, Championship, Friday, April 18th, 12:30 (UK)

The game that kicks the Championship Good Friday programme off is one of the biggest of the day. Derby sit in 21st, a point above the drop, and welcome 23rd-place Luton to Pride Park.

Like I said last week, sometimes data goes out the window due to the game’s magnitude, which is huge for both sides. Who would have thought Luton would be facing back-to-back relegations?

Last weekend, Derby went to Portsmouth, who are also in the relegation picture. The line for that game was 4.5, which I turned down. However, it sailed home with nine yellows in the 90 minutes, so you have to feel this could be similar.

With that in mind, I was slightly surprised to see 2.1 quotes for 20+ booking points each team with Sky Bet. Given the nature of the game, it could be a hard-fought, close encounter, with plenty of niggly fouls.

These two average 1.95 and 1.98 cards per league game, which is around the mark we need. And another useful metric for us is fouls per match.

In that table, Luton sit fourth a 12.4 per 90, with Derby not far behind at 12.1, so we could get a decent foul count. And we all know fouls mean cards!

Eustace = Bookings

The Rams have recently seen an upturn in their card counts under John Eustace. They’ve hit the 20+ booking points mark in 10 of their last 12 league games, which is one factor behind this angle.

Luton’s away numbers are patchy. But when you look at teams around them in the table, they collected 65 booking points at Portsmouth, 40 at Plymouth and 30 at Oxford. Even their most recent away trip saw a split of 20 booking points each at Stoke, and that came with a referee in Dean Whitestone, who has a card allergy.

Now, here’s the bone I have to pick with the people who make the appointments. Why do you keep giving low-card issuers the crunch games?

This one will be overseen by the experienced James Linington, who averages 3.8 cards per 90. His numbers can be hit or miss, but his last three games have seen 65, 50 and 50 booking points, showing he will dish them out when required.

Part of me thinks the official will have his work cut out in a physical game, so that should force him to have to reach for his cards. I do expect the Hatters to take their time over the restarts to test the Pride Park faithful and the referee’s patience, so that could add to the card count.

With the foul charts pointing to a high total and what’s at stake, I’ll have to take both sides to pick up 20+ booking points.

• Selection: 20+ booking points each team (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 8/10

Tyler Adams To Be Booked: Persistent fouler to see yellow

England, Premier League, Saturday, April 19th, 15:00 (UK)

I was torn between players this week. Do I push the boat out and go for a midfielder in the Aston Villa v Newcastle game or stick with the fouls of Tyler Adams?

My thought was that Youri Tielemans could come unstuck against that Newcastle midfield, and he’s a decent price. But I just can’t ignore Adams with his recent numbers.

The Bournemouth midfielder has committed 20 fouls in his last seven games in all competitions. That’s a run of 4, 3, 2, 2, 2 (in a half), 4 and 3. Despite those counts, he’s only been booked once in that sequence – Monday’s win over Fulham.

That caution took him to five in the Premier League for the season. And given he’s in the side that commits more fouls than any other, he’s perfect for Andoni Iraola’s style.

Industrious and… mistimed?

We can occasionally glean fouls/cards from high tackle counts. Adams is an industrious player who averages 3.3 tackles per game. All it takes is one of those be be mistimed for him to enter the referee’s notebook.

Now, when it comes to the last four head-to-heads, there have been 49, 49, 42 & 42 tackles, which illustrates what we can expect with players putting themselves around.

Adams will be at the forefront of that. His defensive midfield position should see him tracking Palace pair Eberechi Eze and Ismaila Sarr, who are ideal candidates to be fouled with their dribbling and trickery.

Bournemouth still have the prospect of qualifying for Europe next season, so they still have something on the line. Therefore, Adams’ recent numbers in the foul column make him stand out as this weekend’s player pick.

I’m writing this on Wednesday. Only bet365 have released their market, so keep an eye out for bigger prices elsewhere.

• Selection: Tyler Adams to be booked
• Best Odds: 3.60
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

The Football Betting Podcast Is Out NOW!

Sam Ingram, Scott Thornton, Daniele Fisichella, Daniel Jenkins, and of course, BETSiE, returns for the weekly instalment of the Football Betting Podcast, powered by bettingexpert.

The Football Betting Podcast can be consumed on any of the three links below:

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/APPLE-BE
Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/SPOTIFY-BE
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheFootballBettingPodcast

Norwich vs Portsmouth: Feeling blue

England, Championship, Friday, April 18th, 15:00 (UK)

Writing this on Wednesday has meant that Sky Bet haven’t released any card markets for Leagues One and Two. A bit of a stumbling block for the final match pick, as there wasn’t too much that stood out.

So, I’ll follow a similar angle to what worked in Morecambe v Carlisle last weekend. That’s by taking Portsmouth to pick up 20+ booking points and the most in their game at Norwich.

It’s just one win in eight for Norwich, which has ended their season prematurely. So, while they kick back in their flip flops, Portsmouth are scrapping for every available point to keep their head above water.

I don’t think Pompey are too far from safety, but have some crunch games in the final weeks in case things do get tense. But they’ll hope to take something from this one to ease that pressure.

There’s plenty of key data to back up this 1.8 angle. But two key pieces are straightforward:

1. Only Preston (106) have picked up more yellows than Portsmouth (104).
2. Pompey rank second for yellows per away game at 2.7 per game.

John Mousinho’s men have collected at least 20 booking points in 16 of their 21 away games, including 40 at Luton, 40 at Millwall and 30 at Coventry in three of their last four road trips.

I might paint the picture that the Norwich squad are mentally on the beach. Their recent home games haven’t seen them go over the top, especially in terms of cards or fouls. For the latter, their last five home matches have seen them average 12 fouls per 90.

Canaries’ recent home booking splits

1. Norwich 0-10 Stoke
2. Norwich 0-20 Oxford
3. Norwich 0-40 Sheffield Wednesday
4. Norwich 10-0 West Brom
5. Norwich 20-40 Sunderland

It’s all very friendly on that evidence from Norwich, so if they are in the mindset of ‘our season is over’, then all the aggression will come from the players in blue shirts.

We’ve also got a referee in Thomas Kirk who has shown 20+ booking points to the away side in 88% of his 25 league games. Another reason that points towards Pompey picking up at least 20, if not the most.

If you want a slightly different approach for this bet, then bet365 go 2.7 on under 2 cards for Norwich and over 1 card for Portsmouth. As you can see above, it looks to have a pretty decent chance too.

• Selection: Portsmouth most booking points & 20+ Portsmouth booking points
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 10/10

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.