The Cards Column Tips: Take The Booking Points And A Feisty Forward

Welcome to your weekly preview of all things referees, cards and bookings. It is, of course, The Cards Column.

Matt Kirby has picked out three of his favourite angles, taking us from the Premier League to League Two. And his player pick is a feisty forward, who is edging closer to a two-game ban!

• Bournemouth vs Wolves: 20+ booking points each team
• Ipswich vs Tottenham: Liam Delap To Be Booked
• Bradford vs MK Dons: 50+ booking points

Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: Taylor at the Etihad and Breakspear’s back!

It’s all eyes on the Etihad on Sunday when Premier League leaders Liverpool head to Man City. Anthony Taylor has been handed the game. Elsewhere in the top flight, Rob Jones has the London derby between Fulham and Palace, while it’s Darren Bond at St Mary’s for Southampton v Brighton.

Elliot Bell takes charge of his second Championship game when Derby host Millwall. Low-card issuer David Webb has the tense tussle at the top of the table between Yorkshire rivals Sheffield Utd and Leeds. Surely his hand will be forced?!

Further down the leagues, Sam Purkiss has Bolton and Leyton Orient, which looks ripe for cards. Stuart Morland has his second EFL game after showing five on debut. He’s got Accrington v Doncaster. While there’s a return to action for cardshark Charles Breaksepar when Swindon entertain Chesterfield.

Bournemouth vs Wolves: A proper dust-up expected

England, Premier League, Saturday, February 22nd, 15:00 (UK)

Let’s start on the south coast, where I can’t get this game between Bournemouth and Wolves from my head. It just looks like the perfect storm for cards!

Only Chelsea and Southampton have picked up more cautions than Bournemouth’s 64. While Wolves are midway for yellows at 53. So, their respective averages are 2.56 and 2.2 per game.

So, I’m drawn to 20+ booking points to each team at 2.0 with Sky Bet. They’ve opened this market at a bigger price than Bet365’s 1.83, so it is definitely of interest.

The Cherries have played 12 home league games so far and have collected 20+ bp in 10 of those, with this bet landing on nine occasions. That’s a whopping 75% of games at the Vitality that have seen this 20+ bp each team land!

Old Gold meanwhile have seen 20+ bp in 77% of their away games – that’s a huge 10 of 13 road trips. What’s more, they draw plenty of cards from their hosts – only Spurs and Newcastle didn’t see two or more cards against this Wolves side, so tell me how Bournemouth don’t here!

Unhelpful appointment – does it matter?

Fouls are what we need to draw the cards and we’ve got two ideal teams. These sides rank first and second for fouls per game in the top flight at 13.6 and 13.4 respectively. That only furthers my interest.

With some Iberian spirit on and off the pitch, then there could be plenty to control for Michael Salisbury. He’s the only detractor to be honest. The official isn’t exactly the strictest, with him averaging just 3.8 cards per game. However, when your hand is forced, there’s nothing you can do!

If you go back to February 2023, Salisbury took charge of Bournemouth’s 1-0 win at Molineux. That game saw him produce 60 booking points – 30 to each team, so evidence he can reach into his pocket.

You could also play the over 4.5 Asian cards market with Bet365 at 1.93. It’s much of a muchness when you factor in the head-to-heads. At Molineux in November, there were six cards with a 5-1 split to Wolves.

While last season’s meetings saw booking points splits of:

• Wolves 40-35 Bournemouth (Milos Kerkez sent off)
• Bournemouth 45-60 Wolves (Lewis Cook sent off)

Despite the unhelpful referee appointment, it could be complete carnage based on the team data and the players on the pitch. Word of warning, Ryan Christie is on nine yellows – one away from a ban – yet is 4.33 for a card with Bet365!

• Selection: 20+ booking points each team (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 8/10

Liam Delap To Be Booked: A frustrated forward to snap

England, Premier League, Saturday, February 22nd, 15:00 (UK)

There’s a lot of talk about the three promoted clubs once again ending in the Premier League drop zone come May. Ipswich are the side who sit in 18th, just two points behind Wolves, going into their home game with Tottenham.

Kieran McKenna’s side have only won three matches since their top-flight return. But one of them came in the reverse, beating Spurs 2-1 in north London in November, so they’ll have no fear going into this one.

Spurs have been boosted with several key players returning to boost Ange Postecoglou’s squad depth. And last weekend’s win over Man Utd will slightly ease some of the pressure.

Given the dynamics of this game, you just have to look at some of the possession data. Only Man City and Chelsea average more than Spurs’ 57.5% in the Premier League, while Ipswich’s total sits at 39.7%, which is the joint-least.

Quite simply, Spurs should dominate the ball. That can only lead to Liam Delap cutting an isolated figure as he ploughs a lone furrow up front. If he doesn’t get much of the ball, or has the feeling Spurs are toying with him, he’s the sort of player who’ll get wound up. Perfect for a booking!

Isolated Figure

He’s chalked up at 4.33 with Bet365 (best price), while he’s 3.3 with Paddy Power for those who want the safety net of Super Sub.

I feel that’s decent enough for a player on eight yellows in the top flight and is averaging 2.2 fouls per game.

That 2.2 average creeps up ever so slightly to 2.31 in games at Portman Road, where some of Delap’s foul counts are staggering. He made four against Fulham, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace, as well as three against Leicester.

There is a chance that McKenna asks him to be a bit more aggressive in the press against teams in mid-to-lower table before telling his forward to drop into shape against the better sides. That could be the case with those numbers!

Delap did commit five fouls in the reverse fixture and saw yellow, which makes him a prime candidate in this one. He’ll harry and pressure this Spurs backline, who don’t mind steady build-up from the back.

We’ve got a decent ref in Tim Robinson, who averages 4.9 cards per game. He’s taken charge of two Ipswich games, producing a total of 11 yellows and a red.

So, with Spurs drawing around 2.6 cautions from their hosts, Delap’s tenacity could land him in hot water at Portman Road.

• Selection: Liam Delap to be booked
• Best Odds: 4.33
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Bradford vs MK Dons: Don’t discount punchy Bantams

England, League Two, Saturday, February 22nd, 15:00 (UK)

I’ll drop down into League Two to wrap up this week, where the appointment of Seb Stockbridge to this game caught my eye.

Bradford put in a valiant effort in the EFL Trophy in midweek but lost to runaway League One leaders Birmingham. After playing nearly 100 minutes at St Andrew’s, they might be a bit leggy.

Graham Alexander’s side are in the automatic promotion picture, sitting just two points from second-place AFC Wimbledon. And it’s their home disciplinary record that also draws my attention.

The Bantams have picked up the most yellow cards in home games in the division with 43 – an average of 2.7 per 90. That’s a solid enough foundation for the argument, but it’s only strengthened when you see some of the match booking point totals at Valley Parade.

From their 16 home games, 75% have hit the 50+ booking points line, which I’m taking at 2.1 with SkyBet. In nine of those, they’ve hit 30+ as a team too, only going to show they can mix it when they need to.

Given some of the totals and that 75% strike rate, I totalled up each of those home games. In the end, I got an average of 54.38 booking points per match at Valley Parade!

Foul Heavy Hosts

What also helps is that Bradford commit 13.1 fouls per home game – the third-most in League Two. While both sides rank midway at around 11 fouls drawn per match.

A lot has been said about the hosts, but MK Dons do get stuck in too. They might be marooned in mid-table, but they still average 2.1 per away game, which should help the total push close to the 50+ line we require.

Once again, the Dons’ team totals look very good for a cards perspective. In their last nine away league games, they’ve hit at least 20+, while they’ve gone 30+ in six of those.

With their respective home and away, you just have to fancy there to be cards here. And the added factor of referee Stockbridge only adds to the intrigue.

The silver fox has shown 50+ booking points in exactly half of his games (10/20). He had a strong start before calming down mid-season. But the recent evidence might suggest he’s going card-happy once more.

In two of his last three league games, Stockbridge has brandished 50 and 90 booking points, with the latter just last weekend when Birmingham beat Charlton in League One.

Now, he’s only been involved in one Bradford game this season. That was their FA Cup exit at Morecambe, where the Bantams picked up 35 of the 45 match booking points after Neill Byrne was shown a straight red. But if you take it back to last season, the ref showed 50bp in their 1-1 draw at Stockport.

And his involvement with MK Dons in the 2023/24 campaign must be noted. He did two of their games, showing 80bp and 60bp (the play-off semi-final second leg) respectively, where the Dons hit 40bp in each.

There’s a lot of numbers to get through there, but a referee who doesn’t mind having a high-card count cannot be ignored. So, with two sides who have solid home/away records, it’s worth taking this angle, plus you could look at some fancier lines at juicier prices!

• Selection: 50+ booking points (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: Sky Bet
• Bookmaker: 2.10
• Stake: 5/10

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