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Horse Racing The Cards Column Tips: Spreading Christmas cheer with cards
For the final Cards Column of 2024, our expert Matt Kirby takes us around the leagues to assess which games might see a shortage of Christmas spirit.
Matt’s three favourite picks are outlines, where he hopes they’ll lead to profit instead of frankincense and myrrh.
- Fulham vs Southampton: 30+ Southampton booking points
- Leicester vs Wolves: Oliver Skipp To Be Booked
- Doncaster vs Tranmere: Tranmere 20+ booking points & most booking points
Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: The pre-Christmas scrooges
The domestic referee appointments have been released up until New Year’s Day, so there’s plenty to go at for the officials barring injury/illness.
The Premier League action gets underway between Aston Villa and Man City with Peter Bankes in charge. Chris Kavanagh is on Merseyside, where Chelsea could go top if they beat Everton. And Sam Barrott has the big game on Sunday as Spurs host Liverpool.
In the Championship, Dean Whitestone will hope the Fratton Park floodlights remain on as Coventry visit Portsmouth. Matt Donohue has his third Preston game of the campaign – he’s already dismissed Sam Greenwood and Freddie Woodman. Darren Bond has another Sheff Utd game, just weeks after sending off Anel Ahmedhodzic.
There’s a belated EFL debut for Sam Mulhall after Storm Darragh saw his initial game postponed. Steven Copeland has been fairly busy in his two league games, hitting 50+ booking points in both. He’s on the Morecambe game. While low-card issuer Farai Hallam has the Monday night game between Crawley and Birmingham.
Fulham vs Southampton: Stopping the Saints from sinning
England, Premier League, Sunday, December 22nd, 14:00 (UK)
Craven Cottage is the destination for my first pick as managerless Southampton visit Fulham. Despite their form, one thing the Saints are good at is collecting cards.
On their travels, Southampton average 3.38 yellows per game, with only Nottingham Forest picking up more.
Sky Bet have chalked up 30 Southampton booking points at 1.91, which is the way to go for me. If you’re new to booking points – 10 for a yellow, 25 for a straight red and 35 for a red following two yellows.
Based on their average above, this should see the visitors hit around the 33.8 mark based on three yellows. On that logic, this line is worth taking, but it’s also backed up strongly.
The Saints have landed this 30+ line in 14 of their league games, including in seven of their eight away. Those are strong numbers proving why their line would be described as ‘high’ in years gone-by.
What aids the chance of cards is the referee, Tim Robinson. He’s shown 4+ in all nine of his league games and is averaging 5.7 per game. His only visit to Craven Cottage this season saw him hand West Ham 30 booking points as they held Fulham to a 1-1 draw.
When going deeper into those numbers, Robinson has shown the away side 30+ booking points in six of his nine middles (67%), which is strong enough to support this angle.
For those who like a juicier price, here are two other options:
- Fulham 20+ booking points & Southampton 30+ booking points: 2.75 with Sky Bet. This just adds Fulham to get 20+ bp on top of the main pick. Marco Silva’s side average 3.13 yellows per home game, hitting the 20+ line in 13 of their 16 Premier League games, including in all eight at home.
- Over 1 card to each team in the second half: 3.5 with Bet365. All the numbers point towards cards and referee Robinson certainly dishes them out. He averages 4.1 in the second half, so a good chance to take an angle solely on that period of play.
- Selection: 30+ Southampton booking points (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.91
- Bookmaker: Sky Bet
- Stake: 10/10
Oliver Skipp To Be Booked: Don’t Skipp on Oli!
England, Premier League, Sunday, December 22nd, 14:00 (UK)
It’s the matchday before Christmas, so there’s always speculation about which players would like Boxing Day off. So, who might fancy a big old Christmas dinner with plenty of turkey (and pigs in blankets) or an extra helping of Christmas pudding?
Thankfully, the excellent @MaccasValueBets has tweeted a list of every Premier League game this week featuring a player on four cautions. Check it out here.
I had narrowed that list down to two options that I could make a case for. The first one was Lewis Cook when Bournemouth go to Man Utd. He’s 5.0 for a card on Boylesports, which looks huge given his Leeds connection.
But I prefer the likelihood of Oliver Skipp to be booked as Leicester host Wolves in a six-pointer at the King Power Stadium. Partly because it’s a Midlands derby but because games like this tend to be midfield battles.
I’ve seen a few accusing Ruud van Nistelrooy of being a bit naive with his set-up at Newcastle last weekend, so I’m sure he’ll be out to solidify the Foxes midfield, where Skipp will be a key part.
The midfielder has collected his four yellows from just 10 apps in the Premier League, and his record shows a card every 159 minutes in the top flight this term.
He might not be the biggest fouler in the Premier League, but his fouls generally just overstep the mark, whether that might be due to their cynical nature or general robustness.
A few CMs have seen yellow against Wolves in recent weeks, but that was against a side set-up by Gary O’Neil, so it’ll be interesting to see how Vitor Periera revitalises and engages the Old Gold squad.
We also have Anthony Taylor in charge, who we all know about. A lot is said about his card record, but he has blanked in two games this season. However, I don’t expect this to be the case.
There’s a part of me feeling that this could see fireworks. If RvN does allow Leicester to be quite open and exposed, things could kick off in the middle third, where Skipp will be asked to protect.
It’ll be best to shop around for the best price, which at the time of writing is 4.00 with Unibet and BetMGM. If you want the cover of Impact Sub, he’s 3.00 with William Hill.
- Selection: Oliver Skipp to be booked
- Best Odds: 4.00
- Bookmaker:
- Stake: 10/10
Doncaster vs Tranmere: Troublesome Tranmere
England, League Two, Saturday, December 21st, 12:30 (UK)
Let’s head into Christmas with something in League Two when Doncaster welcome Tranmere to the Keepmoat Stadium – or whichever sponsor now has the rights!
In the battle of the Rovers, we have Doncaster in the red corner, who are in the promotion mix, while in the blue corner, Tranmere find themselves in the lower mid-table.
Grant McCann’s men rarely pick up cards at home. The game against Chesterfield somewhat blots their copybook, but it is just 13 yellows in 10 home outings. That’s 1.3 per game, which is a ridiculously low number in the current climate.
In contrast, Tranmere average 2.56 per away match, which sums up their battling qualities when they need to dig in and grind out a result.
Nigel Adkins’ side have picked up 20+ booking points 12 times this season, including in eight of their last nine. Strong numbers which look great when you look at their away figures.
They do have a couple of blanks on the road, but they’ve tended to hit 30+ more often than not – in six of nine that’s happened! Their totals include 40 at Port Vale and Colchester, 30 at Crewe, Cheltenham and Chesterfield (their last three away), plus 50 at Bromley.
That’s an illustration of their high numbers, especially ideal when Doncaster have had 20+ and under in eight of their 10 home league games. With that dynamic of the hosts keeping the ball, they shouldn’t need to commit many fouls. And Tranmere are among the sides who don’t draw them – they average 9.8 free-kicks per game, which is the joint-second fewest.
What also helps is that the last three meetings have seen Tranmere land this bet as well. The Wirral side have won the booking points counts 30-10, 30-20 and 30-10. Ideally, the two 30-10 figures both came at this stadium, if you believe in omens. A hat-trick?
American Alex Chilowicz has been a referee I’ve been looking to avoid with him only averaging 3.3 cards – one of the lowest figures on the circuit. His haul of 17 yellows across his last four gives optimism that he’s coming to the boil.
He came to Doncaster last season in his early days on the National List. That game against Newport saw 3-0 booking points in total, a 20-10 split that the Exiles took. A similar outcome will be very handy for this 1.91 angle!
- Selection: 20+ Tranmere booking points and Tranmere most booking points (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.91
- Bookmaker: Sky Bet
- Stake: 7/10
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