The Cards Column Tips: Scrapping For Automatics in League One

Matt Kirby had two winners last week and returns to give us his best card and bookings tips. There are only a handful of Premier League games due to the FA Cup, so he casts his eye over the Football League.

• Derby vs Bolton: 20+ Booking Points Each Team 
• Swansea vs Cardiff: Josh Tymon To Be Booked 
• Birmingham vs Watford: Watford 1+ Card in Each Half & Birmingham 1+ Second-Half Card

Referee Talking Points This Weekend: It’s Sunny in League Two

Darren England takes charge of Luton v Nottingham Forest. That could be a game to see cards with the official averaging 6.1 per game – that’s the second-highest figure of any ref across the four divisions.

In the Championship, David Webb has the South Wales derby between Swansea and Cardiff. While it’s Stephen Martin keeping control of things as Millwall travel to promotion-chasing Leeds.

There are a couple of big games towards the top of League One. Marc Edwards is at Pride Park for Derby’s clash with Bolton, while American Alex Chiolwicz has Peterborough v Portsmouth.

Sunny Gill completes his tour of the leagues with a game in League 2. Card-happy Ben Toner is tasked with the meeting of strugglers Forest Green and Sutton. Plus, there’s an EFL debut for Matthew Russell.

Derby vs Bolton: A feisty clash in the promotion race

England, League One, Saturday, March 16th, 15:00 (UK)

Sometimes there are matches on paper that could be quite explosive. And this falls into that category.

Derby sit in second, a point ahead of Bolton, so it’s the Rams who hold all the aces heading into the final stretch, with that automatic promotion spot. Whether that sees the hosts try to hold onto that advantage or Wanderers push to go for the overtake, I feel this could have fireworks.

Sadly Bet365 doesn’t offer card markets, so it’s to Sky Bet I go. If you use the bet builder feature, combine Derby and Bolton’s 20+ booking points lines for a 1.91 price. It’s slightly bigger than the usual market.

Now, Derby only average 1.9 cards per home game, and Bolton 2.05 per away match. But there’s that nagging feeling that with everything at stake, we should see the referee reaching into his pocket.

The Rams’ home game with leaders Portsmouth saw a 20-30 booking points split, while Paul Warne’s side picked up 20+ at home against play-off hopefuls Barnsley. It suggests when the chips are down, Derby get stuck in.

Bolton, meanwhile, have picked up 20+ booking points in eight of their last 12 away league games, including 45 at Blackpool and 30 in visits to Barnsley and Wigan.

Ian Evatt’s side edged the reverse fixture in September 2-1. But it was a controversial game that saw Derby keeper Joe Wildsmith see red. And in the end, the booking points total was 75, with a 30-45 split.

Referee Marc Edwards is a steady Eddie at this level, averaging 4.4 cards per game. He’s shown four or more cards in 15 of his 19 league games, which is a decent effort. And for our bet, he’s shown 2+ cards to each side in nine of those.

Those are decent enough numbers from the man in the middle. So, in front of a packed-out Pride Park, expect both teams to see a few cards with plenty at stake.

• Selection: 20+ Booking Points (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: Sky Bet
• Bookmaker: 1.91
• Stake: 10/10

Josh Tymon To Be Booked: A suspension looms

England, Championship, Saturday, March 16th, 12:30 (UK)

The weekend starts in south Wales for derby day. Cardiff travel to Swansea after their late heroics saw them defeat Ipswich, and it’s this game where a player angle stands out.

Swansea left-back Josh Tymon is on nine yellows for the season, so one more would see him incur a two-match ban for hitting 10.

Here’s the thing with Tymon. In his first 18 league appearances this season, he had a clean disciplinary slate. However, his next 16 have yielded those nine cautions.

Quite impressively, he’s seen yellow in five of his last six, including against Leeds and Blackburn games here at the Liberty.

So, nine cards in his last 16 and five in his last six means I wasn’t expecting to see him as big as 6.00 for another.

Cardiff players have managed to draw bookings from opposition left-backs in a couple of recent games. Stoke’s stand-in Jordan Thompson and Huddersfield’s left-wing back Brodie Spencer were both booked up against this Bluebirds’ right side.

David Webb has the cards and he booked Tymon when Swansea lost to Leeds here last month. Webb’s 4.1 cards per game average is roughly around the standard within the Football League. But, this is a derby after all, so things could get heated!

In a febrile atmosphere where the challenges could fly in, I’m more than happy to take Tymon to pick up his tenth yellow of the season at a huge 6.00 with Sky Bet.

• Selection: Josh Tymon to be Booked (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 6.00
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 5/10

Birmingham vs Watford: A bruising encounter in the second city

England, Championship, Saturday, March 16th, 15:00 (UK)

To wrap up this weekend, I’m having to get a bit inventive with this selection. But hear me out!

When looking through the numbers I saw that Birmingham rank second for fouls per 90 (12.8) with Watford in joint-third (12.7). However, that number rises for the Hornets in away games to 13.2, which is the highest figure.

So, we’ve got two teams who commit plenty of fouls. And they are both decent for cards – Waftord average 2.4 yellows and Birmingham 2.3.

The match line is set at 4.5, which is high enough despite the evidence above. So, I’ll opt for the creative angle by using the Bet365 Bet Builder. Combine these markets:

• Watford over 0.5 cards in the first half
• Watford over 0.5 cards in the second half
• Birmingham over 0.5 cards in the second half

Despite both sides changing their managers since the reverse fixture, there could be an edge to this after that clash at Vicarage Road. That saw nine cards, with Birmingham having Lee Buchanan dismissed. So, we could be in for a few more cards here.

The Hornets, who’ll have Tom Cleverly in charge, have seen a card in both halves during 11 away games this season. And I suspect Birmingham will have to go for this, given they hover above the drop zone.

Middlesbrough came to St Andrew’s in midweek and left with all three points, but Michael Carrick’s side picked up a card in each half. Something I suspect a Watford side, who earn more, can replicate.

The Blues have the live-wire Siriki Dembele, who ranks highly for draw fouls, while most of the visitor’s backline can be classed as ‘no-nonsense’.

Matt Donohue hasn’t been as prolific this season for cards, he’s been blowing hot and cold. But when he blows hot, it’s scorching, as he showed by brandishing eight yellows when Birmingham hosted Swansea in January.

Get creative with this bet, but it’s a game that could be pretty spicy, given the foul and card data.

• Selection: Watford 1+ Card in Each Half & Birmingham 1+ Second-Half Card
• Best Odds: 2.38
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Odds via bet365 and Skybet as of 21:00, March 14th. Odds may now differ.

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