The Cards Column Tips: Relegation rivals and Promotion Pushes

Our cards and bookings expert Matt Kirby continues his purple patch after another clean sweep last weekend. Both match picks landed in the Championship on Good Friday before Tyler Adams was booked for Bournemouth on Saturday.

That’s now ten winners out of his last 12! So, with just two weeks to go in the EFL, Matt returns with three of his favourite bets in the Championship relegation battle and League Two promotion race.

•     Preston vs Plymouth: Over 3 cards and each team over 0.5 second-half cards
•     Hull vs Derby: Craig Forsyth To Be Booked
•     Doncaster vs Bradford: 20+ booking points each 

Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two 

Chris Kavanagh gets the Premier League action underway on Saturday lunchtime when Chelsea host Everton. There’s a Midlands derby for Sam Barrott between Wolves and relegated Leicester. Barrott hit 105 booking points in his game at Selhurst Park last weekend.

Thomas Bramall will be on hand at Anfield, where Liverpool only need a point against Spurs to clinch the Premier League title. His Select Group 1 colleagues Jarred Gillett and Tim Robinson are in the Championship.

In that second tier, Matt Donohue and Stephen Martin are tasked with two key games in the battle to avoid the drop.

There are two important games in the League Two promotion race at 12:30pm. Ross Joyce has the Yorkshire derby, while Declan Bourne has Port Vale’s trip to AFC Wimbledon – more on one of those later. 

Neil Hair’s last EFL game saw him show a red card to both sides. He takes charge of Gillingham v Swindon. There’s also a return to action for Peter Wright, his first appointment of the 2024/25 season when he’ll lead the teams out at Highbury. 

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Preston vs Plymouth: Donohue to be in the thick of things

England, Championship, Saturday, April 26th, 15:00 (UK)

I always have a glance over the markets when they open on a Wednesday with bet365 and this was the game that stood out. The card line was 3.5, where overs looked a smash in my opinion. 

Those quick-fingered amongst us quickly snapped that up and the line has been readjusted to 4.5. I still expect a high card count but given the change in the line, I’m tailoring my angle into this game at Deepdale.

Let’s start with the permutations. Plymouth are bottom but have boosted their survival hopes after three wins in their last five. Yet things have started to get twitchy for Preston.

The Lilywhites head into the weekend in 18th, just three points off the bottom three. And come kick-off, 22nd-place Luton could have drawn level on points with them if they beat Coventry in the early game. A lot of ifs, buts and maybes, but Preston have certainly been dragged into the relegation picture.

Given the stage of the season, I tend to look for games with something on them. And this fits the bill perfectly. So, I’ll play one of my trusted angles, and I’ll break down how to build it with Bet365:

• Over 3 match cards
• Over 0.5 cards in the second half for Preston 
• Over 0.5 cards in the second half for Plymouth 

In the Championship this season, only Portsmouth (111) have picked up more yellows than Preston (110) – that’s an average of 2.5 cautions per game. Even on home turf, they aren’t card-shy, recording around 2.4 per match, which is the joint-most with Watford. 

Whenever I see Preston, I think cards, so this has to be a match made in heaven. And it’s no surprise that they rank joint-second for fouls at 12.8 per game as well.

And we have a visiting side with a decent enough average. The Pilgrims hit around 2.1 yellows on their travels. Two sides who are great for cards, both in need of points.

So far, so good. And this week, the powers that be have listened by giving us a good referee appointment. 

Matt Donohue will be in charge, and he’s brandished four reds in his last four Championship games. That run started when he dismissed Plymouth’s Matthew Sorinola in their win at Portsmouth last month.

That takes Donohue to eight reds for the season, three of which have gone to Preston players. He’s clearly taken a shine to the Lilywhites this season! 

My data has Donohue averaging 4.7 cards per game, with 3.6 coming in the second half, which is perfect for this angle. And there’s a good chance whichever side takes the lead will employ the dark arts in their bid to secure three points.

I’ve got a feeling this game could go off, especially after the break, so this 1.95 angle looks a solid way in.

•     Selection: Over 3 cards & each team over 0.5 second-half cards (TRACKED BET)
•     Best Odds: 1.95
•     Bookmaker: bet365
•     Stake: 8/10

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Check out our Championship BETSiE Projections: Predicting the Unpredictable

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Craig Forsyth To Be Booked: Play your cards right

England, Championship, Saturday, April 26th, 15:00 (UK)

Two sides sitting precariously in the Championship are Hull (20th) and Derby (21st). The Rams sit outside the relegation zone on goal difference heading into the weekend. But by the time this kicks off, they could be back in the bottom three if Luton get something against Coventry at lunchtime. 

Once again, it’s another key game at the bottom that could well explode into life as the anxiety rises. With the form of both sides, you’d be swayed to make a case for John Eustace’s Rams given their revival under his stewardship. 

So, I thought I’d delve into the data to try and find a player selection. There’s a bit of supposition here, but I landed on Craig Forsyth at 5.5 with Sky Bet. A much better price than the 2.63 with bet365.

Playing on the left side of a 3-4-3, the 36-year-old could find himself in the firing line of Abu Kamara, Lewie Coyle, and most importantly, a drifting Joe Gelhardt. 

One of Forsyth’s four yellows came in the reverse fixture for a late foul on Abdulkadir Omur, which is part of the case here.

But it’s more about how he could come unstuck against the right-sided players in this Hull side. Especially if Leeds loanee Gelhardt is given licence to roam by Ruben Selles.

Gelhardt is drawing 1.7 fouls per game – the joint-most in the Tigers ranks – since his arrival on Humberside. Here at the MKM Stadium, the nimble forward has drawn 4, 2, 2, 3, 2, 2, & 1, which shows just how much of a handful he is.

If he lines up in the 10, then the likes of Ebou Adams and Marcus Harness could well commit the fouls, but they’re short prices. So, after seeing him pop up on the right flank on several occasions in the game against Coventry, it’s a look at Forsyth. 

The ageing defender against the agile attacker. It can only end badly from a Derby perspective if they come face-to-face. And Forsyth’s last two bookings have come in away games at Middlesbrough and Swansea – the latter for delaying the restart at 0-0.  

Even if the Derby man doesn’t commit a foul, we’ve got time wasting on our side given the magnitude of the game. Something that Mr Muscle, Stephen Martin will keep an eye out for, as will the home faithful. 

I saw Martin take charge of Stoke v Sheffield Wednesday on Good Friday. He dished out two cards to each side, including a card each inside five minutes as Ben Pearson crunched Stephen Armstrong inside 90 seconds before Dominic Iorfa stopped a promising attack. 

The official averages 4.2 cards per game, although his counts have somewhat decreased in recent weeks compared to pre-Christmas. But a game such as this could bring out the cards, which makes the 5.5 on Forsyth the play. 

I also considered Nat Phillips (4.5 bet365) and the oldest-looking 28-year-old Matt Clarke (7.0 Sky Bet) as well given Gelhardt’s threat. Again, this is high up on the list for match cards!

•     Selection: Craig Forsyth to be booked
•     Best Odds: 5.5
•     Bookmaker: Sky Bet
•     Stake: 5/10

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Doncaster vs Bradford: Tensions to simmer between promotion & Yorkshire rivals 

England, League Two, Saturday, April 26th, 12:30 (UK)

The Championship relegation battle might be exciting (if your team isn’t involved), but the League Two promotion race is delivering in spades too! 

The two 12:30 kick-offs see first vs third and fifth vs second, so straight away I was drawn into these two games. But it’s the Yorkshire derby involving the league leaders that captures my eye with a market generously priced at 2.10.

Doncaster flew home to reach the play-offs last season. This time around, they lead the way by a point, with today’s opponents Bradford three points behind in third. 

Think back to a few weeks ago when Doncaster hosted AFC Wimbledon. That game saw a red card each, where I mentioned that some data goes out the window with so much at stake. That proved to be the case and can do so again here. 

Grant McCann’s side have picked up 20+ booking points in three of their last four home games, with those finishing with 20-0, 30-40, 25-45 & 10-65 – the latter seeing play-off chasing Colchester end with 10 men. 

20+ booking points should be straightforward for Bradford. They’ve hit that mark in 33 of their league games, including 12 of their last 14 away clashes. And when it comes to League Two, Bradford sit fourth for yellows per game at 2.55.

While Donny’s home data is improving, Bradford’s is generally solid. What also helps is that we’ve got the Yorkshire rivalry to play. Here are the booking points totals in their last five league meetings:

• October 2024: Bradford 30-50 Doncaster
• March 2024: Bradford 50-40 Doncaster
• December 2023: Doncaster 10-10 Bradford (some Christmas goodwill)
• February 2023: Doncaster 20-40 Bradford
• July 2022: Bradford 25-65 Doncaster (red each)

Four of the last five have seen 20+ booking points to each team, which is why the 2.1 looks rather appealing given that both sides are in the promotion mix. 

A slight stumbling block is the referee, Ross Joyce. The whistler hasn’t been as card-happy as he has been in recent seasons, averaging just 3.9 cards per game. A health warning now: his last three games have seen him show 1, 1 and 2 cards. 

However, when you look through his numbers, there are games with 11, 7 and 6 cards. Encouragingly, he showed nine yellows in Bradford’s 2-1 win over Gillingham in October. That ended with a 50-40 booking points split, showing he can reach into his pocket when necessary.

I expect this game to get spicy, given some of their recent head-to-head totals. Both sides are within the top seven for fouls committed in the division, so the 20+ booking points each at 2.1 with Sky Bet is my way in. 

I might also roll the dice on a red card in the game at 4.5 with the same firm. 

•     Selection: 20+ booking points each team (TRACKED BET)
•     Best Odds: 2.10
•     Bookmaker: Sky Bet
•     Stake: 7/10

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