The Cards Column Tips: Who’s the home card magnet?

With FA Cup fifth-round action taking place this weekend, there are no Premier League matches. So, we’ve tasked our referee expert Matt Kirby to find some of his favourite cards and booking points angles from across the Championship and League Two. Here’s what he found:

• Luton vs Portsmouth: Over 4 Asian Cards
• Stoke vs Watford: Andrew Moran To Be Booked
• Chesterfield vs Crewe: 20+ booking points each team

Referee Appointments in the Championship, League One and Two: Bourne to be a ref

Will Finnie gets the Championship action underway on Friday night when Sunderland head to Sheffield Wednesday. Development Group ref Farai Hallam is tasked with late-scoring Leeds’ home game with West Brom, while Sam Allison has the battle of the strugglers when Luton entertain Portsmouth.

Ben Toner has the top-of-the-table clash at St. Andrews in League One. Declan Bourne has Bolton’s trip to Wrexham after showing 65 booking points in midweek. While Select Group 2 pair James Linington and Stephen Martin are also in the third tier.

There’s an EFL debut for Robert Massey-Ellis when Cheltenham play Grimsby. Sam Purkiss and Matt Corlett are both high up in the card tallies this season and find themselves with games in League Two. 

For more data, charts and insight, give Matt a follow on X – @m_kirby95. 

Luton vs Portsmouth: The fear of the drop

England, Championship, Saturday, March 1st, 15:00 (UK)

bet365 were slightly later releasing their card markets for the Championship games, but when they dropped, I was surprised to see some potentially low lines.

Given what’s at stake between Luton and Portsmouth at Kenilworth Road, I wasn’t expecting to see a main line at 3.5 and an Asian line at 4. 

Now, Luton haven’t had the instant impact they were hoping for by appointing Matt Bloomfield. The Hatters still prop up the Championship table and looked bereft of confidence and ideas during last Sunday’s 2-0 defeat to Watford. Back-to-back relegations loom!

Three wins in a row for Portsmouth gives them a healthy nine-point buffer from the drop zone. And on paper, this could be a cracking opportunity to pull even further clear. However, football isn’t played on paper!

There’s likely to be a bit of negativity in the air at Kenilworth Road, and maybe a bit of tension, so I’m happy enough to expect a minimum of four cards by taking the Asian line route at 2.0.

When the sides met in August, this angle would have paid out by half-time! In that one, Luton keeper Thomas Kaminski was booked for time wasting in the 29th minute before seeing a second yellow for a foul just minutes later.

After a total of five first-half cards, the referee took the names of three further players in the second half to finish with a total of eight and 3+ for each team. I’m not expecting exactly the same but Fratton Park and Kenilworth Road seem similar dimensions to make this a tasty tussle. 

Peaks and Troughs

Luton’s home games have had peaks and troughs across the campaign for hitting 4+ cards. The first six league matches here all went over before a lean spell. But more recently, this line would have had two payouts and two refunds across their last six here.

However, it’s been more generous in Portsmouth away games, with six full payouts and the same number of refunds from their 17 road trips in the second tier. There’s a proper mix with Pompey drawing four cards (five in the match) from promotion-chasing Sheff Utd, while picking up six themselves when they went to Watford, as an example. 

John Mousinho’s men also average 2.65 yellows per away game, which is the second-most in the Championship. That’s an ideal point for if they pick up three, we’ll be well on our way. Meanwhile, the Hatters average 2.06 across the campaign, which should get us to at least four.

Encouragingly as well, is that these sides rank fifth and sixth respectively for fouls per game at around the 12.3 mark, while Luton also sixth seventh for fouls drawn. So, there’s a chance this is a foul-heavy game, forcing the referee’s hand into his pocket.

Allison in the Middle

Speaking of that, Sam Allison is the man tasked with keeping a lid on things. He’s dished out at least four cards in 13 of his 22 league games (59%) and returned to form last weekend, showing five yellows at West Brom beat Oxford 2-0 at The Hawthorns. 

Given Allison’s taken charge of League Cup and Premier League matches, I narrowed his figures down to solely the Championship. From his 17 second-tier games, he’s shown 4+ cards in 10 of those after making a strong start to the season with his cards. 

His only involvement with Portsmouth came in a home defeat to Sunderland, where three Pompey players entered his notebook – four in total. And he booked two Luton players in his sole game involving the Hatters when they were defeated by champions-elect Leeds. 

Despite a recent lean streak, I’m hoping last week’s five card showing energises him for similar between two sides that rank highly for fouls. At a flat line of four, I’ll happily take the overs and expect the minimum of a refund.

• Selection: Over 4 Asian Cards (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Andrew Moran To Be Booked: The home yellow card machine

England, Championship, Saturday, March 1st, 15:00 (UK)

Last week’s selection was Liam Delap, who committed four fouls but avoided a card. Then, the former Man City striker decided to get involved at Old Trafford on Wednesday and obviously saw yellow. There’s been plenty like that this season sadly!

This week’s pick is a player that I put out a tweet about on Tuesday before Stoke’s defeat to Middlesbrough. That mentioned Andrew Moran’s record and the Brighton loanee saw yellow for a late challenge in the last 10 minutes. 

So, why not go again?!

The Potters sit precariously above the drop zone, and this campaign has just had a feeling that poor recruitment and mismanagement coupled with dire on-field performances with finally see them finish in the dreaded drop. 

Mark Robins has struggled to make an impact since his arrival and his starting to cut a frustrated figure on the touchline. He’s even made a few jibes about the attitude of the players in certain situations, and spoke about needing to tell a few harsh home truths after shipping four at Norwich last weekend.

However, one man that has featured quite a bit in different midfield areas for Robins is Moran. And the fact that he’s been chalked up at 5.0 for a card with bet365 just makes me want to back it once more as Watford visit the Potteries.

Team news first. There’s a chance that Wouter Burger and Ben Pearson return to the Stoke midfield, which could see Moran moved into the number 10 position, with Baker and Seko dropping out from Tuesday’s side.

If that’s the case, it’s definitely an angle to get on board with. Moran has been booked nine times in the Championship this season, so is closing in on a two-game ban. 

More for Moran?

But what I found more interesting was that seven of those nine cautions came in home games. That includes each of the Potters’ last two at the bet365 Stadium against Swansea and Middlesbrough. 

The majority of those have been for cynical fouls when he’s been caught out of position or he’s decided to take one for the team to stop the opposition from breaking. 

You might look at a 1.33 fouls per 90 average and think that’s low to back a player to be booked, but plenty of those are tactical in nature. Plus, his last three league games have seen foul counts of 4, 2 & 2, which is likely to put him in the referee’s vision.

Moran did commit two fouls in the reverse fixture, but escaped without a card from Tom Nield. And it’s the same match official who’ll take charge of this one.

The Vicarage Road clash saw four yellows – two to each team – while Nield is averaging exactly four cards across his league games so far. 

The referee has taken charge of two Stoke games since then and booked Moran as the Potters ran out 6-1 winners over Portsmouth in October. A home game and a card for Moran…hmm, sounds familiar. From a personal level, I’d love to see that scoreline on Saturday, however slim the possibility!

What furthers the potential here is Watford CB James Abankwah likes to get the ball and play out from the back. That can see him drive into midfield areas in possession, with the 21-year-old drawing eight fouls across his last league games (1, 2, 2 & 3). 

With Moran being something of a card magnet in Stoke home games, I’ll take the price on him to become the fifth Championship player to hit the 10 mark this season. 

• Selection: Andrew Moran to be booked
• Best Odds: 5.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Chesterfield vs Crewe: Play-off hopefuls Crewe clinging on

England, League Two, Saturday, March 1st, 15:00 (UK)

I nearly remained in the Championship for the final pick, where over 1.5 Oxford cards is priced at an appealing 1.8 with bet365. However, I’ll dip my toe into League Two waters.

Crewe currently sit in seventh, the final spot, with Grimsby hot on their heels. And it’s their trip to mid-table Chesterfield that catches my eye.

Paul Cook’s men rack up 2.38 yellows per home game, while the Railwaymen average 2.3 cautions per away match. Straight off the bat, that takes me to the 20+ booking points each team, which looks good at 2.0.

Here at the SMH Group Stadium, the Spireites have hit 20+ booking points in 11 of 15 league games, including this 20+ each landing in 10 of those! To me, that just screams cards!

The Alex are no shrinking violets either. They’ve hit the 20+ line in 14 of 17 away league games (83%). Plus, they’ve finished their last two road trips with 10 men after Jamie Knight-Lebel and Ryan Cooney have both seen red.

No Shrinking Violets

It’s slightly surprising that neither team ranks high up for fouls committed, but they do draw plenty. Only Grimsby (12.9) win more free-kicks than these two sides (12.7), so we could see some buying of set-pieces, which could frustrate either team.

Just like the Stoke v Watford game above, we’ve got a repeat appointment. August’s reverse fixture saw Chesterfield cruise to a 5-0 victory. But they still managed to pick up all four cards despite such a comfortable lead after being 3-0 up in 28 minutes.

Those cards came from Scott Tallis, who has been appointed to this reverse game. And it’s a fairly positive appointment. The whistler has shown at least four cards in 12 of his 16 league assignments, hitting 20+ booking points six times.

Tallis can be a bit uneven with his carding. That was highlighted last weekend when he showed six of his seven yellows to Fleetwood as they lost at Grimsby. Despite that, his overall record does have some high numbers, including 80 and 90 booking points, which shows he sometimes loses a bit of control.

With Crewe clinging on to that final play-off spot, there could be some dark arts from Lee Bell’s men if they’re leading late in the game. And if tensions do flare,we’ve got a decent referee to brandish ample cards.

• Selection: 20+ booking points each team
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 7/10

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.