The Cards Column Tips: Oh Pape, it’s another weekend of cards

Matt Kirby is back with his latest card and booking insights, hoping there’s not another storm about to do the rounds. This week he’s cast his eye over games in the Premier League and Championship for his selections.

You’ll find all of Matt’s data shared on his Twitter/X profile, with graphs for this week’s referee appointments.

• Middlesbrough vs Millwall: Millwall -0.5 Asian card handicap 
• Southampton vs Tottenham: Pape Sarr To Be Booked 
• Sheffield Utd vs Plymouth: Under 3 Sheff Utd cards & under 3 Plymouth cards

Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: Top refs get the big games

It’s no surprise to see Michael Oliver (Brighton v Crystal Palace) and Anthony Taylor (Manchester derby) in two of Sunday’s Premier League rivalries. Sam Barrott gets the Midlands derby on Saturday teatime when Aston Villa visit Nottingham Forest.

John Busby is in charge of Preston v Leeds which saw plenty of drama, and Illan Meslier sent off last season. Farai Hallam is back in the second tier with Sheffield Utd hosting beleaguered Plymouth.

Elliot Bell – a referee I mentioned in last week’s column – has Rotherham v Northampton. Alan Young, who showed 70 booking points last weekend has Lincoln’s trip to Huddersfield. While Thomas Kirk gets the north west rivalry on Monday night between Fleetwood and Accrington.

Middlesbrough vs Millwall: Lions to show claws on Harris’ farewell

England, Championship, Saturday, December 14th, 15:00 (UK)

After calling a section of his fans ‘thickos’ after their 1-0 home defeat to Coventry last Saturday, Neil Harris has decided to leave Millwall after the Lions’ trip to Middlesbrough. I’m sure the players will want him to leave on a high, so I’m expecting them to get stuck in.

Bet365 have the -0.5 Millwall Asian card handicap at 1.8, which looks backable with Harris’ men averaging 2.6 yellows per away game – that’s one card more than Boro average at home with 1.6.

Michael Carrick’s side also draw plenty of cards from their opponents at home. Visitors to the Riverside have collected 34 yellows – an average of 3.4 per game – which is more than anywhere else in the Championship. It helps when players like Ben Doak and Finn Azaz are a nuisance.

This bet has paid out in 11 of Millwall’s Championship matches this season, including in four of their last five away games, having won the card count 3-1 at Cardiff, 3-2 at West Brom, 4-1 at Swansea and then 4-0 at Cardiff.

Millwall won 1-0 at the Riverside last season. That game saw five yellows, four going to the Lions, while they also won the card count 3-1 when the sides met at The Den in January. In fact, this bet has paid out in five of their last six league meetings!

All we need is Geoff Eltringham to show more cards to the visiting side, something he’s done in four of his seven league games this season. He was a Championship regular last season but his sole second-tier middle this term saw Derby pick up three cards to Watford’s two on their visit to Vicarage Road in August.

On paper, it looks like a game where Millwall should rack up a few cards and the data from the season and recent meetings points in that direction as well. So, Millwall -0.5 on the Asian card handicap looks like a solid play.

• Selection: Millwall -0.5 Asian card handicap (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.8
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Pape Sarr To Be Booked: Sarr to clip a Saints’ wings

England, Premier League, Sunday, December 15th, 19:00 (UK)

Spurs continue to falter in the Premier League, but Ange Postecoglou’s charges have the chance to arrest the slide against Southampton on Sunday.

Despite this looking like a very winnable game on paper, Spurs will be without centre-back pairing Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven through injuries. Plus, midfield duo Yves Bissouma and Rodrigo Bentancur are suspended.

That means there’ll be a lot of responsibility on the shoulders of Pape Sarr. After being a bit-part player earlier in the season, the midfielder has been more involved.

He’s started six Premier League games since the start of last month, making 2, 0, 3, 1, 3 & 3 fouls. Plus, his last four apps have seen him rack up 3, 3, 2 & 3 tackles, so he’s an industrious player in the engine room.

Sarr has three yellows in the top flight this season, including in Spurs’ visits to Newcastle and Man City. Plus, he was carded in the first half of that crazy game against Chelsea last Sunday.

We all know that Russell Martin stands by his football philosophy, so that means Southampton will try to dominate possession. And opposition central midfielders generally find themselves pretty busy.

With that in mind, here are some key pieces of data:

• Man Utd’s 3-0 win at St. Mary’s saw Christian Eriksen and Kobbie Mainoo both booked
• Ipswich duo Sam Morsy and Jens Cajuste committed two fouls each without a card
• Bournemouth’s Ryan Christie escaped without a card despite four fouls
• Man City’s Mateo Kovacic = two fouls and booked
• Everton pair Idrissa Gueye and Orel Mangala gave away four fouls each but no card to either
• Brighton pair Matt O’Riley and Mats Wieffer both booked, while team-mate Yasin Ayari made six fouls but didn’t see yellow
• Chelsea’s Moises Caicedo, three fouls
• Aston Villa’s Boubacar Kamara, five fouls

That feels like overwhelming evidence to back a Spurs midfielder to be in the thick of the action, so with the squad issues that man is Sarr.

We’ve also got a referee who is more than happy to dish out the cards in Darren England. He’s averaging six per game from his seven league middles. And this will be his third Spurs game after Coventry in the League Cup (five yellows) and Ipswich in the league (six yellows).

A referee who likes his cheddar and a player who gives away free kicks should be a match made in heaven. So, the 4.33 on Sarr to be booked with Bet365 is the way to go for me.

• Selection: Pape Sarr to be booked (TRACKED BET)

• Best Odds: 4.33
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Sheffield Utd vs Plymouth: One-sided games equal few cards

England, Championship, Saturday, December 14th, 15:00 (UK)

The pressure is on Wayne Rooney at Plymouth, so the last thing he’d have wanted is an away game, especially one at Bramall Lane.

Sheffield Utd sit top of the Championship, with the Blades’ performances best described as efficient. But this is one game that should see them have a field day.

Plymouth seem to have travel sickness with recent away games seeing them suffer. The Pilgrims went to Leeds last month, lost 3-0 and didn’t have a shot. But, more importantly, for card backers, there wasn’t a single one in the game – a rare blank!

Since then, Rooney has taken his men to Norwich, where they got battered 6-1 and that game saw just one card – that went to Matthew Sorinola.

Even their midweek home defeat to Swansea saw only two yellows, both went to Swansea players.

With some heavy defeats on their travels, if the Blades get an early goal, the visitors could fold. So far this term, Plymouth average 1.8 yellows per away game, which is why I’m happy to take unders.

Although I’ve banged the drum in previous games for Sheff Utd cards, I’m going to contradict that logic. Yes, they average 2.9 yellows per home game, but the game state could, and probably should, see them in cruise control, therefore they shouldn’t need to commit many fouls.

But there’s another reason to go unders. Let me introduce former Stevenage academy player Farai Hallam.

It’s been a rapid rise for Hallam, but from what I’ve seen, he seems a safe pair of hands and quite reluctant to show his cards. The under 4 Asian cards line at 1.87 might interest a few as it’s landed in nine of his 12 games across the Football League and National League.

Hallam made his Championship debut last month when Bristol City won 2-0 at Norwich. That contest saw two yellows, so once again, low, low, low!

Digging deeper into those 12 games, this under three cards to each team angle has won in eight, while that Lancashire derby between Blackpool and Wigan, which saw five cards (2-3) looking like an outlier in his data.

If the Blades grab this by the scruff of the neck, then this could be another quiet afternoon in the middle for Hallam, so I’ll roll the dice on this 2.10 angle.

• Selection: Under 3 Sheff Utd cards & under 3 Plymouth cards
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stake: 5/10

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