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Boxing The Cards Column Tips: Naughty Red Devils
After a 1.83 winner with his Crewe angle last weekend, Matt Kirby is back with the latest edition of The Cards Column.
There’s a full slate of fixtures for Matt to assess and pick out his three favourite card and booking points angles. He’s got his eye on a player selection in a Super Sunday game, plus match picks from League One and the Championship.
- Crawley vs Rotherham: 20+ Crawley booking points & Crawley most booking points
- Ipswich vs Man Utd: Liam Delap To Be Booked
- Luton vs Hull: Over 4 Asian cards
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To celebrate England and Wales’ respective promotions from the Nations League, host Daniel Jenkins is joined by three guests for this week’s episode of The Football Betting Pod.
Scott Thornton, Sam Ingram, and Daniele Fisichella are all on hand with at least two bets each before the boys join forces for the Pod Treble.
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(25:50) – Southampton vs Liverpool
Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: The card-happy crew
The Premier League returns between Leicester and Chelsea at lunchtime on Saturday, with Andy Madley appointed to oversee the game. There are also top-flight games for Tim Robinson, Sam Barrott and Simon Hooper, who have shown 4+ cards in all of their outings so far.
Farai Hallam gets his second taste of the Championship when he visits Ewood Park for Blackburn v Portsmouth. He seems to be trending as a low-card issuer. Select Group 1 official Thomas Bramall has his third league game. He’s already brandished 10 yellows and a red in his two matches
Select Group 2 ref Stephen Martin oversees Wrexham v Exeter in League One. While I’ll put Northampton and Cambridge players on watch as they have Alan Young in charge. The arbiter issued 10 yellows in his National League middle last weekend.
Steven Copeland has his second EFL game after last weekend’s debut that ended with 95 booking points. Plus, there’s an appointment for Ben Atkinson, who hit 105 booking points in AFC Wimbledon’s draw with Accrington on Tuesday night.
Crawley vs Rotherham: Devils by name, naughty by nature
England, League One, Saturday, November 23rd, 15:00 (UK)
There might be a full slate to sink our teeth into this weekend, so I’ll take you down a path less trodden. My first pick comes in League One, where two sides at the wrong end of the table collide at Broadfield Stadium.
The angle I’ve spotted in this one surrounds the hosts, as something caught my eye in the League One data. Let me outline the bet: 20+ Crawley booking points and Crawley most booking points.
For those not well versed, a yellow is worth 10 booking points, a red is 25 and a red for two yellows is 35.
Here’s the main logic for my reasoning. This fixture pits the team that collects the most cards at home (Crawley, 3.13) against an away side who average the fewest (Rotherham, 1.13).
In six of their eight away games, Steve Evans’ side have seen one card or fewer, which points towards why 20+ booking points for their hosts should be more than enough to land them the most in the 90 minutes.
What helps that is the fact that only three teams commit fewer fouls than Rotherham (10) in away games, which puts them 21st for fouls committed on the road.
So, what does that mean for Crawley? Their home average hints at somewhere around the 30 booking points mark – ideal for what I’d be looking for.
The Red Devils have definitely had a naughty streak this season, hitting 20+ booking points in 13 of their 16 league games. Narrowing that down to here at Broadfield, they’ve hit that 20+ booking points mark in six of seven matches, with totals of 40, 0, 20, 20, 60, 75, 20 & 20.
And Rob Elliot’s men rank 10th for fouls committed at home, while Rotherham (12.7) sit eighth for fouls drawn.
Matt Corlett is the man in the middle and he’s generally excellent for cards. He’s shown 4+ in six of his seven league games, with him showing the home side 20+ booking points in all seven. That’s a 100% strike rate I’m hoping he can roll over.
The referee took charge of two Crawley games last season. Those saw the Red Devils collect 30 and 40 booking points, which fits the bill.
I can’t say that it’ll be pretty on the eye stylistically given the usual Evans mould. But hopefully his side can ruffle a few home feathers to cause them to rack up the booking points, especially with Crawley’s tendency to a high home card count.
- Selection: 20+ Crawley booking points & Crawley most booking points (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.83
- Bookmaker: Sky Bet
- Stake: 7/10
Liam Delap To Be Booked: Eagle-eyed Taylor on Delap watch
England, Premier League, Sunday, November 24th, 16:30 (UK)
The wait is nearly over! Ruben Amorim will take charge of his first Man Utd game when the Red Devils visit Portman Road on Sunday.
I’ll be interested to see if any early patterns emerge from his style and set up despite the international break potentially shortening the time he’s had to work on his message to his new players.
But it’s their hosts, Ipswich, that interest me in this game, with them having the Premier League’s top fouler within their ranks.
Striker Liam Delap has committed 25 fouls in the top flight – more than any other player. And those infringements have seen him collect three cautions for his troubles, including one against Spurs before the international break.
I’ve had the joy, if that’s the right word, of watching Delap have a loan spell at my club, where he certainly put himself about. But that was more as a frustrated figure than anything else.
His move from Man City to the Tractor Boys is proving to be a successful one, where he’s showing his ability at the top level. But those recent foul numbers make me believe he can catch Anthony Taylor’s eye in this clash.
In his last eight appearances of 45+ minutes in the league, he’s committed foul counts of 4, 3, 1 (booked), 0 (booked), 1, 2, 3 & 5 (booked).
That game where he didn’t commit a foul but still saw yellow came against Aston Villa and just proves he can talk his way into the book as well. For what it’s worth, he’s a combustible character!
If Amorim hopes to get his United players to build from the back, Delap charging around to put pressure on or start the press could easily see him leave his foot in. And part of me feels there’s a chance we get some handbags between Delap and Lisandro Martinez – that’s just a battle that could easily go ‘bang’ at any stage.
Obviously I’m picking a player that’s seen a few recent cards and commits plenty of fouls. So, there are a couple of other Delap angles to potentially take. They are:
- 2+ fouls at 2.5 with Bet365.
- Goal and card double at 15.0 with Bet365
He’s netted six times, with five of those coming in his last six league apps. Plus, he’s landed this angle in two of those – home to Aston Villa and away to Spurs.
His foul stats are decent enough for the 2.5 angle, while I know a few like a longshot, so couldn’t put you off the goal/card double.
- Selection: Liam Delap to be booked
- Best Odds: 4.5
- Bookmaker: Bet365
- Stake: 5/10
Luton vs Hull: Managers on the brink with struggling sides
England, Championship, Saturday, November 23rd, 15:00 (UK)
Sometimes writing this I get the sense that you get to read my internal struggles when it comes to assessing the match/referee combinations.
There’s a strong feeling of that this week, where we have Preston v Derby and West Brom v Norwich in the Championship. Both matches look great for cards and appealing Asian card lines set at 4, but the referee appointments of David Webb at Deepdale and Lewis Smith at The Hawthorns are a bit meh. So, I’ve got to swerve them despite expecting decent totals.
Instead, I will stick in the second tier and head to Kenilworth Road for Luton v Hull. Rob Edwards has survived the sack after their drubbing against Middlesbrough before the international break, while the pressure builds on Tim Walter from the Tigers faithful.
These two sides are in 21st and 19th respectively, just outside the relegation zone on goal difference. So, with results becoming more important for both managers to remain in their positions, we could get something of a scrap.
Luton average 2.13 yellows per home game this season, with Hull at 2.29. Based on that alone, we’re seeing around the standard four cards mark. Given the inflation of cards this season, I was expecting a line of around 4.5 in this one.
But Bet365 have set their Asian Cards line at 4, which makes me feel overs is the way to go, especially in the knowledge that an exact number gives us a push.
The Hatters have played out 11 games with five or more cards so far, including five of eight here at the Kenny. While this angle has seen three full wins and two pushes out of Hull’s seven road trips.
Edwards’ side rank third overall for fouls in the Championship, but climb to second (13) when you narrow it down to games on their home turf. Despite sitting 14th in the away foul charts, Hull commit 12.4 on their travels, so a similar figure considering their ranking in this metric.
I mentioned above about the match/referee factor, and this one has a decent enough official to make me interested in trying to play my cards right.
Select Group 1 ref Thomas Bramall has recently returned to the fold. His first middle of the season came at this level, where he showed five yellows and a red in Middlesbrough’s defeat to Coventry.
Then, before the break, he was at Molineux for the Premier League ‘six-pointer’ between Wolves and Southampton. That game saw Bramall brandish five more yellows, so he’s averaging six cards per 90 in the early part of his campaign.
I wouldn’t be worried about when the cards come either. That Boro game saw six in the first half, while the bulk in Wolves v Southampton came after the break (four of the five).
Given the need for points for both sides as the pressure mounts on their managers, this could be something of a battle, despite Tim Walter’s style. I just hope Bramall continues his 5+ cards trend here by taking the over 4 Asian line.
- Selection: Over 4 Asian Cards (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.85
- Bookmaker: Bet365
- Stake: 5/10
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