The Cards Column Tips: MD25 Player Cards, Team Bookings and Data

It’s a big weekend of Premier League action, while the promotion races and relegation battles are heating up in the EFL. Our cards expert, Matt Kirby, is here to analyse the action and bring you his best cards and booking tips for the weekend slate.

• Millwall vs Sheffield Wednesday: Both teams 2+ Cards
• Birmingham vs Sunderland: Ethan Laird To Be Booked
• Portsmouth vs Reading: 30+ Reading Booking Points

This week’s bettingexpert Football Podcast looking ahead at the weekend’s schedule

And if you’d rather see the Podcast, Daniel Jenkins, and Sam Ingram in all their glory, here’s the YouTube video. 

Premier League and the Championship

Andy Madley has the weekend’s standout game as Man City host Chelsea. But the headline-grabbing appointment is that of Lewis Smith to Fulham v Aston Villa. The 30-year-old is one of the Development Group officials and makes his Premier League debut.

Select Group 1 ref Chris Kavanagh will take charge of the EFL Cup final in a couple of weeks. He’s having a game away from the spotlight, overseeing Championship leaders Leicester’s clash with Middlesbrough. Geoff Eltringham has a big game towards the bottom of the second tier.

League One and League Two

In League 1, Darren Moore takes charge of his first Port Vale game against former Valiants boss Darrell Clarke’s Cheltenham. It’s a relegation six-pointer for Sam Purkiss. Select Group 2 pair Dean Whitestone and Josh Smith both have important games.

Jeremy Simpson continues his comeback in Colchester v Accrington. His three games since his return have seen a total of 21 yellows and two reds. So, there could be cards in that one.

I’ll caveat this. These appointments were released on Monday, but on Tuesday night, Neil Hair went off injured during Stockport’s defeat to Crewe. At the time of writing, I hadn’t seen a change announced. Look out on my Twitter (@m_kirby95) for when I see it confirmed.

Millwall vs Sheffield Wednesday: War of attrition between relegation rivals

England, Championship, Saturday, February 17th, 15:00 (UK)

I noticed that a few Championship games this weekend have seen Bet365 set lines of 3.5 in the card market. And in all honesty, quite a few appeal.

But none more so than this massive game towards the bottom. Sheffield Wednesday are seven points adrift of safety. But with Millwall being the team sat above the dreaded dotted line, the Owls can reduce that on their visit to the capital.

You have to feel a win for Millwall could well see the bottom three being the trio that drop into League One next season. So, that brings with it plenty of significance.

Not only is there a lot at stake, but these two sides commit plenty of fouls. The Lions (420) have given away more free-kicks than any other Championship side. While Wednesday aren’t far behind in second with 405 fouls.

When there are fouls, there have to be cards. This leads me to both teams to receive 2+ cards at 2.25 with Bet365.

Now on the averages, Millwall pick up 2.1 cards per home game, while Wednesday collect 2.2 per away. If they can follow that, we should be in a good place.

Here at The Den, Joe Edwards’ side have had two or more players booked in 10 of their last 12 in the league. While they’ve done just that in 17 of their last 19 overall.

And the figures aren’t too dissimilar for Danny Rohl’s Owls. Wednesday have had 2+ cards in 16 of their last 19 league outings, proving they are happy to roll their sleeves up and scrap for survival.

The man in the middle is Geoff Eltringham. It’ll be his third Millwall game of the season having already booked four Lions players across his two previous matches.

In terms of the Select Group 2 officials, he seems to average a couple of more free-kicks per game than his colleagues (23.8). So, with these two teams giving away plenty, he could be a busy man.

Eltringham has shown 4+ cards in 13 of his 18 league games, which is solid enough. From those in which he’s dished out four-plus, eight have seen splits of at least two to each team. That’s the hope of an even split rather than a 3-1 going against us.

There’s plenty in this game to like, especially the magnitude, foul numbers and card data. All-in-all, it’s hard to ignore an odds-against quote for two each. It did happen when they met at Hillsborough!

• Selection: Both teams 2+ Cards (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.25
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Birmingham vs Sunderland: Lightning to strike twice for Laird

England, Championship, Saturday, February 17th, 15:00 (UK)

Tony Mowbray has managed pretty much every Championship club it seems. But the club that sacked him in December, Sunderland visit his current employer Birmingham on Saturday afternoon.

The veteran manager will know he ins-and-outs about the Black Cats for this clash. And I expect him to find a way to nullify the threat of Sunderland talisman Jack Clarke.

It’ll be a big job likely to be on the hands of Birmingham right-back Ethan Laird, who is the one I fancy for a booking.

Laird has returned to the starting eleven, featuring in all three Blues games this month. The full-back has only started 10 league games but has two bookings – one in the reverse and one against Blackburn in midweek.

In that reverse fixture in November, Laird saw yellow inside 18 minutes for bringing down Clarke. So, I’m trying to draw parallels from that where the tricky Sunderland winger causes the defender plenty of problems.

With no player being fouled more often than Clarke in the Championship (78), it’s worth taking history repeating itself.

Over this campaign, only Hull (408) have drawn more fouls than Sunderland (407). Birmingham (403) rank third for fouls committed. So, that could lend itself in our favour.

As does the referee Stephen Martin. He’s averaging 5.1 cards per game and is one of the higher card issuers in the Championship.

The Staffordshire-based official took charge of these two sides when they met at the Stadium of Light last April. Sunderland’s Dennis Cirkin was dismissed, but more importantly for us, Birmingham’s starting right-back Maxime Collin was booked.

Those who like a cheeky double might be tempted to pair Laird with Clarke to both see yellow at 21.00 with Bet365. However, for the single, take Laird at an appealing 5.50.

• Selection: Ethan Laird to be Booked (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 5.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Portsmouth vs Reading: Royals to get stuck in

England, League One, Saturday, February 17th, 15:00 (UK)

I’ll start by saying that I was caught in two minds with what to go for this to wrap up with. It was very nearly both teams 2+ cards in the Lancashire derby between Preston and Blackburn at 2.25.

However, I’ve been swayed by going for Reading to pick up 30+ booking points at 2.00 on Sky Bet.

The Royals have done incredibly well to put their off-the-field issues out of their minds to climb away from immediate danger. They sit four points above the relegation zone after going unbeaten in their last six. But they now face a tricky trip to the league leaders Portsmouth.

Ruben Selles’ men average 2.4 cards on their travels this season and have picked up 30+ booking points in six of their last seven away. They’re getting stuck in and aren’t afraid to employ the dark arts where needed.

What helps us is that Reading average 12.4 fouls per 90 – that’s the most in League One. Meanwhile, Pompey draw the most free-kicks from their opponents (12.6). So, with Reading fouling and Portsmouth winning fouls, we could be in a good position.

Select Group 2 ref Josh Smith has been up and down the leagues this season. He’s taken charge of games in the top flight, while his sole outing in League One saw him dish out six cards. That was Bolton v Stevenage, where he gave three to each team.

His last league game was a top-of-the-table clash in the Championship, where gave 30 booking points to Ipswich as they visited Leicester. Plus, in the FA Cup, he repeated the trick to the away side as Oxford lost at Coventry.

Reading could try to match Portsmouth with confidence in the camp high, which will hopefully lead to a few robust challenges. The visitors have seen plenty of cards in recent away games and when the sides met in October, the Royals picked up 65 booking points.

• Selection: 30+ Reading Booking Points (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: SkyBet
• Stake: 10/10

Odds via bet365 & Skybet as of 21:30, February 15th. Odds may now differ.

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