The Cards Column Tips: Expect cards in League Two

It’s the final international break in 2024 leaving a limited fixture list for Matt Kirby to crunch the numbers. He’s picked out his favourite card and booking points angles across the games in Leagues One and Two, including a player pick in the televised game between Exeter and Lincoln.

• Doncaster vs Salford: 30+ Salford booking points 
• Exeter vs Lincoln: Millenic Alli To Be Booked
• Crewe vs Notts County: 40+ match booking points & 20+ Crewe booking points 

The Football Betting POD is out NOW: Eight Bets and Afters Regrets

Fresh off his failed first round interview for Match of the Day, host Daniel Jenkins returns with his tail between his legs to join Sam Ingram and Scott Thornton to run the rule over the international break.

The boys discuss the upcoming matches for England and Wales in a tip-happy episode of The Football Betting Pod:

Referee Appointments in League One and Two: Allison in League One & an EFL debut handed out

Exeter and Lincoln get their turn in the Sky Sports spotlight with an early kick-off on Saturday. Thomas Parsons will take charge of that. Select Group 2 referee Sam Allison is in League One when he oversees Crawley’s trip to Bristol Rovers.

There’s another good appointment for Thomas Kirk as he has Stockport v Wrexham in one of the weekend’s standout games.

In League Two, a clash towards the top between Crewe and Notts County sees Steven Copeland handed his EFL debut. While John Mulligan, Zac Kennard-Kettle and James Oldham all have games.

Doncaster vs Salford: Ammies to get stuck in

England, League Two, Saturday, November 16th, 15:00 (UK)

It’s in League Two we start this week, where Salford travel across the Pennines into Yorkshire to take on fourth-place Doncaster.

The one thing I’m hoping for is that Salford can keep this tight and frustrate Rovers. The longer this remains goalless, the hope Karl Robinson’s side will gain, but I can see them rolling their sleeves up and getting stuck in.

Whatever the game state, the numbers suggest that there’s a strong likelihood we’ll see the visitors pick up a few cards.

The Ammies have seen 31 yellows in seven away games – an average of 4.4 per game, which is the most in League Two. I was looking at a way to combine 20+ Salford booking points and Salford most match booking points, however they all come out short.

Instead, I’ll just play this with a straight bat and take 30+ Salford booking points at 1.83 on Sky Bet.

That average of 4.4 yellows per away match gives an indication of their style, with the Ammies seeing 30+ bp in six of their seven road trips already this season. And overall, this angle would have paid out in seven of their last nine league games.

With those card tallies, it’s no surprise that they rank third for fouls in the fourth tier (14 per game).

What helps is that Doncaster draw cards from their opponents. Their opponents have covered this line in eight of their last 10 league outings, including in each of the last six, with Notts County hitting 30 in last weekend’s draw.

The last league meeting between the sides came in February, which produced 60 booking points – 40 of which went to Salford. That furthers the case, as does the fact that Martin Woods oversaw that fixture, and he’s in charge again on Saturday afternoon.

I’ll also add that these two met in the League Cup back in August. Doncaster ran out 2-0 winners on the night, with Salford racking up 50 booking points. So, there’s that bit of recent history on our side.

Going back to referee Woods, he took charge of Salford’s opening game of the season, where he showed 20+ bp to each team. One more card to the Ammies this time, please Martin!

• Selection: 30+ Salford booking points (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 10/10

Millenic Alli To Be Booked: Alli to break his duck

England, League One, Saturday, November 16th, 12:00 (UK)

Earlier this week, Exeter published their disappointment about this game against Lincoln going ahead after Kamari Doyle’s late call-up meaning they have three players on international duty.

However, attention will be on St. James Park on Saturday lunchtime when these two play-off chasing sides meet. Lincoln occupy fifth place heading into this one, but a win for the hosts would see them draw level on points with the Imps.

Researching for this game earlier in the week saw a couple of players end up on my radar. Crab footballer, yes, that’s crab, and not something else, Ryan Woods has four yellows in his last six games in all comps. He’ll be part of the industry in the Exeter midfield.

While in the opposing ranks, Lewis Montsma is worth a mention. He’s only started twice in the league, but did see yellow in the draw at Bristol Rovers last weekend. In those two starts, he’s committed five fouls in total (3 & 2). While last weekend, he also drew five fouls, so despite being a centre-back could be heavily involved.

Despite those two nearly making the cut, I’m opting for one of the Grecian forwards who is likely to feature. That’s because Gary Caldwell is without Josh Magennis, Ilmari Niskanen and Kamari Doyle, so his attacking options will be limited.

With that, it leads me to Millenic Alli. You might ask why am I going for a player yet to be booked in League One this season. But there is some method to my madness (I hope).

Looking at the League One numbers on fbref.com, Alli has committed more fouls than any other player (33). And somehow a referee hasn’t felt the need to caution the Irish forward.

He’s given away two or more free-kicks in 10 of his 13 league apps, including four in 45 minutes at Wigan, three against Cambridge and Huddersfield, plus last weekend, he committed five fouls in 73 minutes of Exeter’s 1-0 win against Charlton. Yes, FIVE fouls and no card!

Luckily we’ve got a referee here in Thomas Parsons, who won’t stand any nonsense. He’s averaging 4.4 cards per league game and has shown 40+ booking points in seven of his nine middles.

In five of his last six games, Parsons has hit the 50+ booking points mark as well, which gives me hope there’ll be cards. Although, the caveat is Exeter tend to pick up few cards in home games.

That said, a Grecian who tops the foul charts could easily commit a late foul as Lincoln try to build from the back. Millenic Alli is 6.5 with Bet365 for a card, which I’m getting drawn into as a price-play given his foul data.

• Selection: Millenic Alli to be booked
• Best Odds: 6.50
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Crewe vs Notts County: Handbags between promotion rivals

England, League Two, Saturday, November 16th, 15:00 (UK)

Despite the lack of games due to the internationals, there were some attractive games to try and find angles. Sam Allison in Bristol Rovers v Crawley stood out as potential for cards, as does Cambridge’s match, with the U’s averaging three yellows for home game.

Newport (2.3 cards per home game) host Grimsby (2.8 cards per away game) at Rodney Parade – that’s another that can’t be forgotten.

However, I was most taken by this encounter at Gresty Road between fifth-place Crewe and third-place Notts County, with just two points separating the sides.

Lee Bell’s side have lost just one of their last nine league games and have progressed into promotion hopefuls once more after last season’s play-off final heartbreak. And the Magpies will be in contention come May, although they’re without Alassana Jatta, who’s away on international duty.

Given this proximity of the sides in the table, there’s likely to be an edge to this one. And some of that might come following last season’s meetings, which saw 70 and 80 booking points.

I’m not discounting that 50+ booking points is 2.00 with Sky Bet and that has legs solely on those meetings. But I’m combining two markets in a 1.83 Bet Builder.

They are 40+ match booking points along with Crewe to pick up 20+ booking points.

Let’s start with the Alex angle. They’ve had 20+ in 12 of their 14 league games, including five of seven at home. Plus, in those meetings with the Magpies last season, the Railwaymen collected 20 and 40.

I’m swayed to combine these two legs with Crewe committing 11.8 fouls per game. That’s unlike their opponents, as County give away the fewest free kicks per 90 (9.4). So, with the hosts likely to be a tad more aggressive, they could fall foul of the referee.

Talking of the man in the middle, we have Steven Copeland making his EFL debut. Across the 11 games he’s taken charge of this season, he’s dished out 46 yellows and four reds.

There’s definitely hope of cards from Copeland after his first four Nations League matches this term saw 70, 80, 100 and 70 booking points.

But looking closely at matching his numbers up with this bet, Copeland has shown 40+ booking points in nine of his 11 middles. While the home side has seen 20+ in six of those.

This is quite a fascinating match-up, where I’d expect the referee to have to be at the centre of things to keep a lid on proceedings. If there’s needle, he’ll be forced into his pocket and this 1.83 angle is what tempts me the most.

• Selection: 40+ match booking points & 20+ Crewe booking points (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 7/10

Odds via bet365 and Skybet as of 20:00, November 14th. Odds may now differ.

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