The Cards Column Tips: Enzo’s struggle against the Reds

It might have been an international break last weekend, but it didn’t stop Matt Kirby from finding a winner in League Two. Salford v Grimsby saw 70 booking points for a lovely 1.83 winner!

This week, Matt turns his attention to the Premier League for his player pick from Anfield. Plus, a couple of match fancies where card-happy officials could hog the limelight.

For more from Matt and the charts with all the juicy data, check out his Twitter and give him a follow – @m_kirby95.

• Luton vs Watford: Over 1 card in the first half & over 3 cards in the match 
• Liverpool vs Chelsea: Enzo Fernandez To Be Booked 
• Man Utd vs Brentford: Over 4.5 cards 

Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: Oliver & Barrott to maintain 100% records?

The Premier League and Championship return after the international break. The big game comes from Anfield on Sunday, where leaders Liverpool host Chelsea. John Brooks has the whistle.

Michael Oliver and Sam Barrott have shown 4+ cards in all their games so far. Oliver is at Portman Road while Barrott heads to Old Trafford.

Select Group 1 ref Stuart Attwell finds himself in the Championship for Derby’s trip to Millwall. The card-happy Stephen Martin has what could be a spicy game between Luton and Watford.

Ruebyn Ricardo showed 10 cards (or 105 booking points) in his game last weekend. He has another League One outing, this time it’s Cambridge v Wigan. While Oliver Mackey’s second EFL game is also in the third tier.

League Two leaders Port Vale welcome Fleetwood, who are managed by former Stoke midfielder Charlie Adam. This game sees an EFL debut for John Mulligan, whose three National League matches have produced 7, 6 & 6 yellows. Select Group 2 ref Geoff Eltringham also finds himself in League Two.

Luton vs Watford: Martin to flex his muscles

England, Championship, Saturday, October 19th, 12:30 (UK)

I’m going to have to start at Kenilworth Road where Watford make the short trip to take on Luton in a Beds-Herts derby.

After relegation from the Premier League, things haven’t panned out the way many were expecting for Luton. The Hatters are languishing in 21st, just a point above the drop zone. While Watford have surprised many by their bright start and sit in sixth.

Given their geographical locations, there’s a bit of rivalry, which should make things heated from the first whistle. And we’ve got Stephen Martin, who loves showing his cards!

It’s his appointment to this fixture that sees me put together a Bet Builder of over 1 cards in the first half and over three cards in the match with Bet365.

The Staffordshire referee has taken charge of six league games so far, showing a whopping 42 cards – that’s an average of seven per game.

But even when you narrow it down to cards shown in the first half, he’s brandished 20 – that’s an average of 3.3 in the first 45 minutes. For this angle, we need two first-half cards, and that’s something Martin has done in all six of his league games.

So, with his high number of cards shown, here’s a look at his first and second half splits:

• FH: 2 + SH: 2 = 4 match
• FH: 2 + SH: 6 = 8 match
• FH: 3 + SH: 5 = 8 match
• FH: 2 + SH: 2 = 4 match
• FH: 6 + SH: 5 = 11 match
• FH: 5 + SH: 2 = 7 match

The two final games on that list have both been in the second tier and they’ve seen plenty of cards. In fact, they would have seen this bet pay out by half-time!

For further context, in Boro v Stoke, the first two cards were produced by the 27th minute. While during Norwich v Leeds, he cautioned a player from each side within the first 10! And that even saw two each by the half hour!

Luton and Watford both average over two cards per game this season. And while their last meetings were a couple of seasons ago, they did produce 14 cards to show that rivalry.

I’ve had to be inventive to find an angle into this one, but the numbers are solid enough to suggest we’ll get early cards from a referee who doesn’t mind riling the crowd.

• Selection: Over 1 card in the 1st half & over 3 cards in the match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.95
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Enzo Fernandez To Be Booked: CMs in the thick of the action

England, Premier League, Sunday, October 20th, 16:30 (UK)

The Premier League’s return sees leaders Liverpool welcome in-form Chelsea to Anfield. Can the Reds keep their noses in front of Arsenal and Man City? Or will the Blues cut the gap?

It’s going to be a fascinating watch for the neutral after both managers came in during summer and seem to have had positive impacts on their squads.

A lot of pundits have analysed Liverpool’s build-up and style under Arne Slot, so it got me to do some digging into a player pick for this huge game so early in the season.

It’s hardly an original selection, but I’ve got to have a nibble on the 3.6 available for Enzo Fernandez to be booked. This is with Paddy Power, so we’ll have the bonus of Super Sub in case the Argentine is subbed at any time.

He might have played 90 minutes in Argentina’s 6-0 thrashing of Bolivia the other night, but 72% possession for the World Cup winners shows it might have been a procession.

Despite what might be a late arrival back in the capital, you have to expect him to start. So, if carrying a bit of fatigue from his travelling, we could see some dangling legs or mis-timed challenges.

Fernandez may only have been booked in Chelsea’s win over Brighton so far, there’s still reasons to warrant placing this bet.

As I’ve touched upon, the pundits have shown Liverpool’s central build-up, which is likely to see Fernandez and Moises Caicedo in the thick of the action.

The basic point here is that plenty of CMs have been cautioned against the Reds in all competitions. I’m going to list those midfielders booked with their foul counts in brackets:

• Christian Norgaard (3)
• Kobbie Mainoo (2)
• Ryan Yates (1)
• Youssouf Fofana (1)
• Lewis Cook (1)
• Ryan Christie (2)
• Justin Kluivert (3) – played as a 10!
• Edson Alvarez (5) – dismissed
• Lucas Paqueta (1)
• Andre (1)
• Jefferson Lerma (2)
• Will Hughes (2)

League, cup, Champions League – whatever the competition, CMs get booked against this Liverpool side.

It’s hard to ignore either likely Chelsea player in that position here but it’s Fernandez that stands out. He seemed to struggle in this fixture last season and was booked in both league games against the Reds.

To make it even better, those cards last season against Liverpool came in the 32nd and 33rd minutes. Nice and early agin please, Enzo!

• Selection: Enzo Fernandez to be booked (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 3.60
• Bookmaker: Paddy Power
• Stake: 5/10

Man Utd vs Brentford: Barrott’s card streak to carry on

England, Premier League, Saturday, October 19th, 15:00 (UK)

One man delighted at seeing Thomas Tuchel announced as England manager was Erik ten Hag. The Man Utd boss remains in the Old Trafford hotseat and will be relieved to see one potential replacement taken out of contention.

Now the Red Devils welcome fast-starting Brentford to the Theatre Dreams. And if recent weeks are anything to go by, the vidiprinter could well read: Man Utd 0-1 Brentford (SCORER) 1.

There is hope on my part that this match follows a similar pattern to the meeting here 12 months ago. The Bees led for the majority of that before two 90th-minute Scott McTominay goals turned things in United’s favour.

That game produced five yellows – all going to Brentford players – while their 1-1 draw at the Gtech also saw five cautions – a 3-2 split to the Bees.

I do like the line being set at 4.5 for this game. Taking overs at 1.80 is quite appealing given the numbers in recent meetings.

But I’m quite keen to take cards in games refereed by Sam Barrott. This is his first full season on the Select Group 1 list and a few will argue he’s been fast-tracked into the position.

In five Premier League games, Barrott has shown 32 yellows – an average of 6.4 per game. That’s a huge figure for any ref! What’s startling to me is that he was one of the lower-card issuers across the whole of the leagues last season. Is that added pressure from the PGMOL or being in the top flight?

The Yorkshire official has match figures of 6, 6, 7, 7 & 6, which comfortably sails over this 4.5 line set. Given we’ve got a ref who’s dishing out six every 90, then it feels like this is a very achievable bet, especially if the game dynamics work out in our favour.

Turn the clocks back to August where Barrott oversaw Brentford’s opening game. The Bees beat Palace 2-1 in a game that saw six cards, with the Eagles collecting five of those.

Brentford could draw a few yellows from their hosts. United have seen 11 yellows in three home games – an average of 3.7 per 90, which makes you feel that if they hit that figure here, we’ll be well on our way.

Plenty of central defenders have entered the referee’s notebook against Brentford as well. Most recently it was Wolves’ Craig Dawson. But in that opening game Barrott took charge of Palace’s back three of Marc Guehi, Chris Richards and Joachim Andersen all saw yellow.

Admittedly, a lot of the heavy lifting here is done by a referee who has shown 5+ cards in 100% of his games. But, we’ve also got Man Utd’s hefty card tally at home to add into the mix.

With the Red Devils still spluttering along, the Bees could have some joy. And if that’s the case, a fascinating watch with plenty of cards could be in store.

• Selection: Over 4.5 cards
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stake: 10/10

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