The Cards Column Tips: Cobblers and clumsy defenders

After a midweek round of games in the EFL, Matt Kirby has been busy compiling the data and crunching the numbers ahead of another weekend.

Matt fired in a 1.95 during Luton v Watford last Saturday, and he’s back for more. Read ahead for insight into the Premier League and EFL.

• Northampton vs Crawley: Each team 20+ booking points
• Arsenal vs Liverpool: Ibrahima Konate To Be Booked
• Sheff Utd vs Stoke: Under 3 cards in the first half & over 2 cards in the second half 

Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: Taylor with the big one

All eyes will be on the clash between title rivals Arsenal and Liverpool on Sunday. Anthony Taylor took charge last season and is back in control of this one. There are also top-flight games for Darren Bond and Tony Harrington.

In the Championship, card-happy pair Andrew Kitchen and Ben Toner both have games. Kitchen is in charge of Burnley’s home game with QPR, while for Toner, he has Stoke’s visit to Sheffield Utd.

Thomas Kirk has shown 40+ booking points in all his five league games. He has Northampton v Crawley in League One. Meanwhile, everyone’s favourite first-half cardshark Stephen Martin has Leyton Orient’s trip to Wycombe.

A Yorkshire derby between Bradford and Doncaster sees Ruebyn Ricardo try to keep a lid on things. He’s averaging 6.7 cards per 90 having shown 4+ in all six of his league games.

For more from Matt, check out his Twitter for the card charts and more referee insight and data – @m_kirby95.

Northampton vs Crawley: Kirk to bring the cards

England, League One, Saturday, October 26th, 15:00 (UK)

A rare foray into League One is on the agenda to start this week’s column. Not only do I have to point out referee Thomas Kirk’s numbers, but these two sides rank high in the card charts.

Crawley’s 37 yellows see them top those rankings with an average of 3.1 per game, with Northampton sitting joint-third at 2.6 per 90. Straight away I was looking towards 50+ booking points at 1.83 on Sky Bet, which has to be given strong consideration.

But I’m going to play the 20+ booking points each at 1.80 with the same firm. Obviously, we need the splits to go in our favour, but this bet has copped in five of Northampton’s six home league games, with both sides at Sxifields usually racking up the cards.

Just take their last two as an example of what to expect. Bolton came here and that game finished with 40 bp each, while Leyton Orien’ts visit saw both teams collect 30 each.

Overall, the Cobblers have picked up 20+ booking points in eight of their 11 league games, while the Red Devils have done the business in 10 of their 12.

What helps is a referee who has shown at least 40+ booking points in all five of his league games. Kirk’s games have produced tallies of 50, 70, 60, 60 and 40, which makes him a suitable referee to discipline players who overstep the mark.

From those matches, Kirk’s split have generally been favourable, with three seeing 20+ booking points each. Again, those breakdowns – 10-40, 40-30, 30-30, 30-30 & 10-30.

What I’ll also throw in is that the ref has done two League Cup games, they’ve had 40 and 60 booking points, with splits of 20 each in Fleetwood v West Brom and 20-40 in Blackpool v Sheff Wed.

Just two points and two places separate these sides in the table, which I’m hoping adds a bit of an extra edge to proceedings. With both likely to be in a relegation battle, every point matters, so I’m taking 20 each here and might have a nibble on 50+bp in case of a unfavourable split.

• Selection: 20+ booking points each team (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 7/10

Ibrahima Konate To Be Booked: Clumsy Konate to strike again

England, Premier League, Sunday, October 27th, 16:30 (UK)

Sunday’s feature game in the Premier League is another huge one. Title rivals Arsenal and Liverpool meet at the Emirates, and I’m hoping for similar chaos as this fixture last season.

The Gunners will be looking to move on following last weekend’s away day woe that saw William Saliba sent off, meaning Mikel Arteta will have to shuffle his pack.

But Liverpool continue to move along and lead the way. Arne Slot’s side have conceded the fewest goals and have the lowest xGA, which means I’m expecting something of a low-scoring encounter.

Anthony Taylor is in charge and his appointment interested me after he took charge of this last season. That saw Arsenal win 3-1 with nine yellows and a red.

The player who was given his marching orders was Ibrahima Konate, and I’m expecting him to find himself in hot water once more.

The Frenchman has seen yellow on five of his last seven starts in all comps. While in the league, he’s caught the referee’s eye after committing at least one foul in each of his last five.

If this pans out with Trent Alexander-Arnold pushing forward, we could get Gabriel Martinelli driving at Konate in the turnover. If that goes to plan, there’s only one winner. And it isn’t the big, clumsy Liverpool defender.

That five-in-seven record recently speaks volumes. One of those cautions came in Liverpool’s win at Molineux against Wolves, which Taylor refereed. Same again, Anthony!

• Selection: Ibrahima Konate to be booked
• Best Odds: 3.40
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stake: 5/10

Sheffield Utd vs Stoke: Lean towards the second half

England, Championship, Saturday, October 26th, 15:00 (UK)

There are plenty of prohibitive prices and high lines for this weekend’s action, so I’ve had to get a little inventive for my final pick.

I fear my Stoke side are in for a long afternoon at Bramall Lane with the Blades strong at the back and having quality attacking options. Oh, and former Potter Tyrese Campbell will be out to prove a point, albeit likely off the bench.

But another referee that catches my eye is Ben Toner. He’s dished out 4+ cards in nine of his 10 league games, averaging 6.3 per 90.

However, he’s generally quiet in the first half (1.5) before stamping his presence on the game after half-time. With that in mind, I will use the averages to guide my angle into this tussle.

To prove how Toner issues his cards, here’s a breakdown of his first/second-half card counts:

• FH: 1 + SH: 3
• FH: 1 + SH: 2
• FH: 2 + SH: 6
• FH: 0 + SH: 5 – Stoke v Hull
• FH: 3 + SH: 4
• FH: 2 + SH: 6
• FH: 1 + SH: 4
• FH: 1 + SH: 8
• FH: 3 + SH: 2
• FH: 1 + SH: 7

You can see that Toner generally gives one in the first half but showing plenty in the second. Taking this angle would have landed in seven of those matches so far (70%), and is something to note.

Chris Wilder’s side average three yellows per 90 on home turf, while Stoke sit third for away cautions accumulated at 3.80. I can see why the card line is so high, although I’m half expecting one-way traffic if Tuesday’s draw with Bristol City is anything to go by.

The Asian cards line is at 5.0 priced at 1.80. The team home/away averages combined with a referee who has shown 5+ in his last eight league games could make that backable for some. But I’m happy to take this 1.95 angle, which sees plenty of Toner in the second half.

• Selection: Under 3 cards in the first half and over 2 cards in the second half
• Best Odds: 1.95
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stake: 5/10

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