The Cards Column Tips: Bookings in Camp

The first international break of 2024 means a reduced fixture list with the Euro 2024 qualifiers and the like taking centre stage. League One and League Two provide the only betting opportunities in the EFL, so, of course, Matt Kirby has plucked out his favourite cards and bookings tips from the weekend schedule.

1. Burton vs Port Vale: 20+ Booking Points Each Team
2. Stockport vs MK Dons: Callum Camps To Be Booked

Derby can move to within two points of the top in League One. Scott Oldham oversees their trip to Northampton. At the other end, there’s a Staffordshire derby between relegation rivals Burton and Port Vale for David Rock.

In League Two, there are a couple of games on TV, which means player markets. Simon Mather shows the most cards from all the data collected. He has Mansfield’s home game with Colchester. While Marc Edwards has Stockport v MK Dons.

Burton vs Port Vale: Relegation rivals do battle

England, League One, Saturday, March 23rd, 15:00 (UK)

Burton sit four points clear of the relegation zone in League One, so they have a bit of a buffer. But they can give themselves room to breathe with victory over Port Vale, who are six points adrift and struggling under Darren Moore.

Not only are these sides at the wrong end of the table, but they are Staffordshire rivals. They’ve met three times in league and cup already this season with those games producing 11 yellows and one red.

Their league clash ended in a 3-2 win for Burton in September and saw 50 booking points – a 30-20 split to the Brewers. While their initial FA Cup tie saw a booking points split of 25-40, once again in favour of Albion.

So, two of their three meetings have seen both sides pick up 20+ booking points. If you combine those two team markets using the Bet Builder on Sky Bet, you’ll get a 2.10 quote, which is decent enough.

Martin Paterson’s men have picked up 46 yellows in 18 home games – an average of 2.6, which is the most in League One. While the Valiants average a shade over two per away game. Again, both side’s numbers look solid enough for cards.

Referee David Rock also adds another level of intrigue to this angle. He averages 22.8 fouls and 4.3 cards per game. Plus, he’s shown 4+ cards in 15 of his 26 games, with 12 of those seeing a split of at least 20+ booking points each time.

That’s 80% of the time he hits 40+ booking points, there’s some sort of even split pointing toward this angle.

And Rock has done one game involving either side so far this season. He took charge of Port Vale’s forgettable opening-day defeat at Barnsley (7-0). Despite the scoreline, that saw eight yellows with a 60-20 split.

While his sole Burton game came here at the Pirelli when he showed 20 booking points to each team in a 1-1 draw.

Given both sides average over two cards per home/away game and their recent meetings, there’s enough to suggest referee Rock could be in the thick of the action.

• Selection: 20+ Booking Points Each Team (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 10/10

Callum Camps To Be Booked: Jack to be a Payne in Camps’ side

England, League Two, Saturday, March 23rd, 15:00 (UK)

The first task for the player pick was a toss-up between the two televised games – Mansfield vs Colchester or Stockport vs MK Dons. There’s a good chance the former sees the Stags steamroller their visitos, so I’ll head to Edgeley Park.

There could be some needle between Stockport and MK Dons after their meeting in September. County ran out 2-1 winners, with the game seeing seven yellows. Hopefully, we get a repeat as there’s just a point separating these two sides in the race for automatic promotion.

Now, it’s time to qualify the player angle. Both sides like to try and dominate the ball, especially the Dons since Mike Williamson came in from Gateshead.

Looking at some of the League Two data shows that Dons pair Max Dean and Jack Payne draw 1.7 fouls each per game, which ranks them highly in the fourth tier. So, that tends to draw my attention towards those who play in central areas for Stockport.

Kyle Wotton ranks 9th for fouls committed (1.7 per game) in the division. Depending on how the hosts line up, he might be worth a look, especially if starting in the ‘10 role’. He’s picked up five yellows across his 15 starts and eight sub appearances. There’s some scope around his 4.50 price on Bet365.

But I’m expecting Payne to be locked in a battle with Callum Camps, which takes me to the County midfielder. Camps has only been booked once across his 11 starts and nine apps from off the bench. However, he’s committed fouls in seven of his last nine and has started his last two, including away at Salford in a deeper position.

If that’s the case here, then the 5.50 on Bet365 looks good enough to take despite just one card. I’m basing that on his likely opponent in Payne drawing fouls. And it’s worth noting, Sky Bet hadn’t released a market at the time of writing, so they could be bigger.

I will say that I wasn’t surprised to see Dan Harvie as the shortest price on Bet365. The Dons man averages 1.4 fouls per game – second most in their ranks – and has seen seven yellows and a red already this term.

I’m hoping referee Marc Edwards makes amends after his blip let us down last weekend. His only game involving Stockport saw six yellows, as did his sole MK Dons outing. Hopefully, there’s a similar number here and we, as punters, get fireworks and plenty of cards.

• Selection: Callum Camps to be Booked
• Best Odds: 5.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Odds via bet365 and Skybet as of 20:00, March 21st. Odds may now differ.

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