The Cards Column Tips: An early festive treat

If you’re looking for insight into cards and booking points, you’re in the right place, as Matt Kirby provides us with the latest insight.

Matt provided us with a 2.20 winner last weekend between Wolves and Bournemouth. This week, he’s found match picks in the Championship and League One. There’s also a player pick for one of Sunday’s games in the Premier League.

• Luton vs Swansea: Over 3.5 cards & over 1 Luton card 
• Leicester vs Brighton: Victor Kristiansen To Be Booked 
• Crawley vs Stevenage: 50+ booking points

Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: Oliver gets the Merseyside derby

The Premier League action kicks off on Saturday with a Merseyside derby, which will be the final one in the top flight to be played at Goodison Park. Michael Oliver has been tasked with that. On Sunday, it’s Spurs v Chelsea, who have had plenty of spiky affairs of late, so Anthony Taylor could be busy.

In the Championship, there’s a return to ‘Spy Gate’ with Derby visiting Leeds with Matt Donohue in control. Select Group 1 pair Craig Pawson and Thomas Bramall also find themselves in the second tier. Plus, there’s a game for Thomas Kirk, who seems to be well-favoured by the powers that be.

A card-happy Thomas Parsons oversees Birmingham’s trip to Barnsley. Seb Stockbridge, who showed 75 booking points on Tuesday night, has Steve Bruce’s Blackpool against Steve Evans’ Rotherham – one for the purists.

Simon Mather has the Monday night game between Northampton and Peterborough. While the big game at the top of League Two at Vale Park sees Ben Speedie in charge. And finally, there’s an EFL debut for Sam Mulhall when Colchester visit Notts County.

Luton vs Swansea: Bells and cards… it must be Christmas

England, Championship, Saturday, December 7th, 15:00 (UK)

This week’s Championship markets on Bet365 have quite a few attackable lines, even West Brom v Sheffield Utd on Sunday, where the low-issuing David Webb is in charge has potential.

However, my eye has been drawn to the game at Kenilworth Road, where Luton host Swansea.

The referee appointment of James Bell catches my eye. Bell has issued 4+ cards in eight of his 10 league outings (80%) and is averaging 6.1 cards per game after brandishing five red cards – that’s one in every two.

One of the red cards shown by Bell went to Luton’s Liam Walsh, not long after he came off the bench in the Hatters’ 2-2 home draw with Oxford in October. That game ended with six yellows (three each) on top of that red.

The match line at 3.5 looks on the low side based on that evidence, which is the starting point. Plus, Rob Edwards’ side averages 2.5 yellows per game, the next part of this double.

Luton cards are a must here for me for several reasons. They’ve picked up 2+ cards in 14 of their 18 league games, including seven of nine here at The Kenny. And, the referee doesn’t mind upsetting a home crowd by giving the hosts 2+ cards in eight of his 10.

The case for home cards can be strengthened. Luton sit third for fouls per game (12.9), while Swansea draw plenty. The Swans are the third-most fouled side in the second tier (12.7)

Luke Williams’ men have seen their opponents pick up 2+ cards on 13 occasions already, including West Brom at The Hawthorns (4), Sheffield Utd at Bramall Lane (3) and, more recently, Derby at Pride Park (3).

Given Luton’s foul and card data, they could quite easily catch the attention of referee Bell, so this 2.05 angle looks worthy to start this week’s column.

• Selection: Over 3.5 cards & over 1 Luton card (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.05
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Victor Kristiansen To Be Booked: Following the trend

England, Premier League, Sunday, December 8th, 14:00 (UK)

For this week’s player pick, I nearly went for someone in the ‘Next Manager Sacked derby’ at London Stadium. Whoever loses is likely to have their P45 waiting by lunchtime on Tuesday.

Despite my eye on plenty of midfielders there, I spotted something else that intrigued me. That was the number of left-sided players, especially defenders, booked against Brighton.

I’m writing this as the Seagulls are in action at Fulham, so we could have another victim by the end of the night. In the south coast club’s last 11 league games, we’ve seen cards for:

• Jurrien Timber
• Marc Cucurella
• Destiny Udogie
• Lewis Hall
• Rayan Ait-Nouri
• Rico Lewis

That’s six left-backs booked in those 11 (before Fulham). While in that Wolves game, Old Gold LCB Toti Gomes also saw yellow. Even Southampton’s LCB Kyle Walker-Peters saw yellow against the Seagulls the other week.

Now, Kristiansen has only seen one yellow in the Premier League. That came after he committed a couple of fouls at Fulham. He even gave away two in midweek against West Ham but escaped a sanction. Up against someone like Georginio Rutter, the Dane could have his hands full.

The best price is with Unibet at 4.6. They’ve generously allowed me to stake £4.31 on this bet. They must have seen the trend!

I don’t mind the 6.5 on Bilal El Khannouss with Bet365. He’ll be playing further forward on the left, where Antonie Semenyo saw yellow for Bournemouth against Brighton. And the former Genk man has come to my attention after committing seven fouls in his last two starts – five v Chelsea and two v West Ham – no card in either game.

• Selection: Victor Kristiansen to be booked
• Best Odds: 4.6
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stake: 5/10

Crawley vs Stevenage: Ring the Bell: Round 1

England, League One, Saturday, December 7th, 15:00 (UK)

When it comes to backing cards, you need two reliable sides. That’s what we have in this clash between Crawley and Stevenage.

It was during last month’s international break when I touched upon Crawley’s ill-discipline this season. The Red Devils average 2.67 yellows per game in League One – that’s the most. And that figure increases to 3.1 per home game.

Now they welcome a Stevenage side, who rank third for yellows per game this season (2.53). So, first v third in terms of cards makes this game a must.

Those averages give us around an expected 5.6 cards, equating to 56 booking points – that’s if we take for granted that they’re all yellows. So, the 1.91 for 50+ booking points looks a nice way in with Sky Bet.

Alex Revell’s visitors have been involved in 13 League One games that have hit this mark (76%). And that includes five of seven away games, featuring 80 in their trip to Burton, 70 away at Wigan and 60 (30 each) when they visited former manager Steve Evans’ Rotherham.

Only four of Crawley’s nine at home have hit this mark. But they do plenty of the heavy lifting after seeing team totals of 60 (of 90) against Mansfield and 75 (of 115) against Shrewsbury. In all, the Red Devils have seen 20+ booking points in 14 League One matches, which makes me believe they’ll continue that trend.

Both sides are decent for cards, while it’s the visitors that rank higher for fouls. Boro giving away 13.4 per 90, which is the fourth most in the division.

And it was Stevenage’s game in midweek that saw 85 booking points after Northampton’s Tom Eaves was dismissed after 28 minutes. That game also saw Revell see red, so he’ll be in the stands for this one.

Given what I’ve said about the sides, then I must introduce the referee. Oh look, it’s another Bell. This time it’s Elliot Bell, who seems to be going quietly about his business and seems to be impressing the PGMOL.

Bell has shown 50+ booking points in five of his nine league games (56%) and averages 4.3 cards per game. But he’s been more willing to reach into his pocket in recent outings.

The whistler took charge of two EFL games last season when pitched straight into League One. Those produced 11 yellows, an average of 5.5 per game.

This season saw Bell make a strong start, calming down for a few weeks, but his last couple have given us a few more scenes we like to see. His last three league games have produced booking points totals of 50, 85 and 60.

With Bell seemingly happy enough to reach for his cards, these two could produce a big old count. I don’t want to jinx it but some of the higher lines might be worth a bit of loose change too.

• Selection: 50+ booking points (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 7/10

Odds via bet365 and Skybet as of 20:30, December 5th. Odds may now differ.

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