Taking Advantage of Welsh Woes in the Championship

Swansea and Cardiff have both enjoyed stints in the Premier League over the past decade but they are edging dangerously close to the Championship drop zone.

With the Welsh clubs continuing to struggle, Scott Thornton outlines why punters should back against them in the weeks to come. 

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Swansea’s Damning Data in 2025

Swansea enjoyed a seven-year spell in the top tier of English football. Their highest finish came in the 2014/15 season when they finished 8th. The club even managed to win the League Cup in 2013, which saw them play in the Europa League the following season. They were eventually relegated to the second tier in 2018 and things haven’t gone according to plan since. In fact, the team are in danger of dropping to League One if their poor form continues. 

The Swans have won just three of their 14 league matches since the start of the calendar year. During that dismal run, they have picked up just 11 points and it has left them 16th in the table, six points above the bottom three. Luke Williams was sacked amidst that woeful run. Alan Sheehan has since come in but the new manager bounce has worn off in recent weeks as the team succumbed to defeat in their last two outings.

The Welsh side’s issues stem from their inability to create chances. In 2025, they have scored an average of 0.66 goals per game. Only Luton, who are averaging 0.57 goals per game, have scored less over that period. Swansea also have the eight-lowest xG in the Championship over the course of the season with 48.26, so don’t expect a drastic turnaround in their attacking form. 

Swansea’s defensive record since the start of the year has also been a massive issue. They are conceding an average of 1.71 goals per game this calendar year, 0.02 less than Plymouth, who have conceded the most in the division. 

Alex Sheehan’s side head to Elland Road to take on Leeds United in their next match. Daniel Farke’s team have the firepower to carve Swansea’s shaky defence to pieces. They are the highest-scoring team in the Championship this season, netting an average of two goals per game. Therefore, we are backing over 2.5 goals for the home side. Leeds have netted 11 goals across their last three matches against Swansea with this bet landing in all of those clashes. BETSiE projects that this will be the most one-sided game in the league this weekend. 

Punters who love a longshot could be tempted to back the Swans to be relegated at odds of 81.00. There are currently five teams between Swansea and the relegation zone but the gap of six points could quickly evaporate if their form doesn’t improve. 

The Bluebirds Struggle to Fly Clear of the Bottom Three

Cardiff find themselves in an even more precarious position. They are just one point above the relegation zone after Derby won consecutive league matches. It’s been a rollercoaster ride under the ownership of Vincent Tan. The club have played in the Premier League as recently as 2019 but they are now in danger of dropping down to the third tier for the first time since 2003. 

The Bluebirds now have a must win home game against Sheffield Wednesday. Omer Riza’s team have lost their last two league games in front of their owns fans, the last of which was against 23rd place Luton.  Riza won his first four home matches in charge of Cardiff when he took over in October. Since then, they have managed to win just three of their 12 home games, scoring an average of one goal per game. They will have to remedy that issue quickly if they are to remain in the division.

Sheffield Wednesday have been better on the road of late. They have failed to win any of their last six home matches but they have secured four victories in their last six away matches. As a result, Sheffield Wednesday draw no bet appeals against a lacklustre Cardiff.

Worryingly for Cardiff, they also have a tougher run-in than two of the three teams below them in the table. The Bluebirds’ remaining opponents have picked up an average of 1.35 points per game, whereas Derby’s and Luton’s opponents have earned 1.24 and 1.33 PPG. That makes Cardiff odds of 3.00 to be relegated very backable.

Wales’ biggest clubs find themselves in a perilous position with just eight games remaining of the Championship season. Will they turn things around or are they destined to continue on their downward spirals? BETSiE projects that Cardiff will finish 19th and Swansea will end up 16th, but it’s getting a little close for comfort.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.