Steve Wyss’ Top Five Ante-Post Outright Bets

Football expert Steve Wyss delves into various markets across Europe’s top leagues including La Liga, Ligue 1, and the Bundesliga, to find the best value Ante-Post bets.

Who is vulnerable after overachieving last season and who has the ambitions to launch themselves higher?

• To be Relegated: Las Palmas 
• Top Four Finish: Lyon
• To be Relegated: Heidenheim 
• To be Relegated: Monza
• Premier League Winner: Arsenal 

2024/25 Season Preview on The Football Betting Pod: Abundant Ante-Post Angles

We’re back, as host Daniel Jenkins is joined by bettingexpert Football Editor, Sam Ingram, and bettingexpert contributor, Jack Wright, who serve up fifteen selections between them.

The pair take a forensic look at the ante-post outright betting markets with the aim of serving up a number of value selections ahead of the return of domestic football in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two.

Las Palmas to be relegated: Islanders to be cast away at the bottom of La Liga

Spain, La Liga.

Somewhat remarkably, Las Palmas will head into this La Liga season winless in 15 consecutive matches. Their last victory was way back on 10th February, and they finished last season in shocking form, just managing to scrape over the survival line. As a newly promoted team, they achieved their main objective but now look ripe to go down in what could be a ‘second season syndrome’ factor.

The team from Gran Canaria finished second bottom of the points table, and their main overachievement was at the back. Their xGA of 59.73 was far worse than the 47 goals they conceded and owed much to the form of goalkeeper Alvaro Valles. He is set to leave the club, though, and at the time of writing, he is training with the reserves. Las Palmas have sold left-back Saul Coco to Torino for £7m, so another key part of the defence will be missing this season.

McPalmas

Their current transfer business into the club is hardly very inspiring. Former Ajax and Barcelona goalkeeper Jasper Cillessen looks set to start in between the sticks and has a big task to emulate Valles’ numbers. Ollie McBurnie has come in from Sheffield United, but La Liga feels too much of a step up for him. Las Palmas had the lowest xG of any side in La Liga last season anyway, and goal-scoring is a known struggle. The Islanders are the shortest-price favourite to be relegated but still look big at 2.20 to go down.

Other teams likely to be in the mixer are newly promoted Leganes and Valladolid. Playoff winners Espanyol look well set to survive, and sides who struggled last season, such as Rayo Vallecano, Celta Vigo and Sevilla, are likely to rebound this year. Las Palmas might pick up the odd win at home but are likely to struggle on the road away from their island base. It is hard to see them avoiding relegation in what should be a massively challenging year for the club. Taking them to go down looks like the best bet in La Liga for those looking for an outright punt.

• Ante-Post Selection 1: Las Palmas to be relegated
• Best Odds: 2.20
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Lyon top four finish: Big spending OL aiming for the Champions League

France, Ligue 1

One of the best-looking outright bets in Ligue 1 this season is for Lyon to break back into the top four. This time last year, Les Gones were a total mess, and things got even worse on the field, where they looked like a relegation contender for nearly half the campaign.

However, after several manager switches, they landed on academy coach Pierre Sage, who has done a tremendous job since taking over. His record is very impressive, with 15 wins in 22 Ligue 1 games, plus a run to the French Cup final, which was only lost narrowly against PSG. Lyon improved in all areas of the pitch under Sage but has also been aided by some off-the-field moves, which have helped settle the club down.

Nothing coy in Lyon

After new budget proposals were approved in January, Les Gones have not been shy in bringing in new players to the club. Their latest dealings include the permanent signings of Orel Mangala & Said Benrahma. Lyon have also now added impressive Georgian international Georges Mikautadze from Metz after they hijacked Monaco’s interest in him.

Ernest Nuamah and Moussa Niakhate have also been added, and at the time of writing, OL has spent well over £100 million this summer. With such costs come high expectations. The minimum objective for the club will be to get back into the Champions League spots, where they look overpriced at 2/1. Even if PSG and Marseille should be two teams locked in for the top four, other sides such as Brest & Lille could regress this season, whilst Lens and Nice have new managers needing to settle in. Lyon won 12 of their last 15 Ligue 1 games and could even contend for the title if they maintain that sort of momentum. They look like a solid pick to get back into the top four.

• Ante-Post Selection 2: Lyon top four finish
• Best Odds: 3.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Heidenheim to be relegated: Tough second season expected for Bundesliga minnows

Germany, Bundesliga

Heidenheim were one of the big stories of last season in the Bundesliga. Manager Frank Schmidt has taken the club from the fifth tier of German football into the UEFA Conference League courtesy of an 8th-place finish. All the stars aligned for Heidenheim last year, with key players performing and the club massively overachieving their metrics.

The trio of Tim Kleindienst, Eren Dincki and Jan-Niklas Beste were all absolutely brilliant but have now left the club and will be extremely difficult to replace. If Heidenheim do qualify for the Conference League group phase, they will have to juggle both domestic and European football, which would be a massive strain on them.

Despite qualifying for the Conference League, Heidenheim actually finished third bottom of the Bundesliga xPoints table last season. Only Leverkusen had a bigger overperformance in this category, and no team had a greater combined xG and xGA overachievement than Heidenheim. They kicked off last season as the clear favourite to go down, and we must remember that this is a club with limited resources and what now looks like a much weaker squad.

With key players having departed, this is set to be a difficult second season for the club, and they look for some value to being relegated down to Bundesliga 2. This bet includes relegation via the playoff match, and I consider this pick my best Bundesliga outright bet.

• Ante-Post Selection 3: Heidenheim to be relegated
• Best Odds: 3.25
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Monza to be relegated: Going off track? Monza could be surprise candidate to get dragged into trouble

Italy, Serie A

Monza finished a comfortable 12th position last season in Serie A, but a major part of their success was thanks to goalkeeper Michele Di Gregorio, who enjoyed a stellar campaign. He won the Goalkeeper of the Year award, and it was no surprise to see a big club like Juventus sign him this summer. He will be badly missed by Monza, and so will their manager, Raffaele Palladino, who has been snapped up by Fiorentina.

Taking over is legendary defender Alessandro Nesta, who finally makes the step up to the Serie A level after managing nearly 150 times in Serie B. Monza has also lost influential attacker Andrea Colpani, who followed Palladino to Fiorentina.

This is now their third season in Serie A so there might be hopes that Monza can become an established side at this level. But this could be a more tricky season than the bookies expect. It’s a surprise to see them as big as 12/1 to be relegated, and I would suggest they should be half that price at most. The likes of Cagliari, Empoli and the newly promoted sides will likely be in the mixer but I don’t see Monza as being comfortably safe.

Losing their highly-rated manager & best player from last season could be a challenge. They ranked inside the bottom six for xPoints and xGA, so there could be a natural regression. There might ultimately be three or four worse teams than Monza, but I definitely think the 12/1 on them to go down has some legs and is the type of Serie A outright bet which will have some longevity.

• Ante-Post Selection 4: Monza to be relegated
• Best Odds: 13.00
• Bookmaker: William Hill
• Stake: 2/10

Arsenal to win the Premier League: Third time lucky for Mikel Arteta in pursuit of title glory

England, Premier League

Arsenal have come up just short of the title in each of the last two Premier League seasons, but I think they can go one better this time around and lift the crown. The squad is nearly complete to Mikel Arteta’s desire. Riccardo Calafiori looks like a fantastic addition at the back and is the type of player who should suit their system perfectly. They are in the hunt for another midfielder, with Mikel Merino the most likely addition at the time of writing. Arsenal perhaps still lacks a centre forward of exceptional class, but this is also an area in which they are expected to bolster their ranks eventually. If Gabriel Jesus could stay fit the whole season, it would be a major boost, whilst Kai Havertz performed a lot better than most expected in the previous campaign.

Arsenal’s defensive numbers were exceptional last season, and they had by far the best xGA in the Premier League of any team (31.78). In William Saliba, they have arguably the best central defender in the world, and his partnership with Gabriel at the back has really blossomed. With Jurrien Timber fit and available, plus the Calafiori addition, they look completely watertight. There’s an old saying that ‘defences win championships’, and this is definitely an area in which they have an edge on Manchester City. With more experience than ever dealing with a Premier League title race, the North London outfit looks primed to go one better this time around.

Charges Looming

Anyone backing Manchester City must also consider the 115 FFP charges currently hanging over their heads. This process is taking a long time, and even upon an outcome, there would be likely appeals. But could this be the season that City are hit with a points deduction? The Gunners are capable of winning this league fair and square, but they look well clear of anyone else, so they should be in a position to pounce if off-the-field matters become a factor.

Liverpool looks like an exciting project under Arne Slot, but he might need at least a season to bed in properly at Anfield. The rest of the chasing pack, quite frankly, appears too light to offer a title challenge over the course of a whole season. Arsenal have improved year on year under Arteta and are hungry for success. It feels like it’s time again for the Gunners to fire back to the top of the table. The gap between themselves and City has closed, so the 2.88 on offer that they lift the title looks like a decent bet. Arsenal have traded much shorter than their original title odds in both of the last two seasons, so this bet offers investment and layoff potential for their backers as well.

• Ante-Post Selection 5: Arsenal to win the Premier League
• Best Odds: 2.88
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Steve Wyss’ Top Five Ante-Post Outright Bets Odds via bet365 & William Hill as at 9:47, August 5th 2024 – odds for best bets may now differ.

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