Southampton vs Newcastle Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Josh Ingram is on hand to oversee a Southampton vs Newcastle prediction preview at St Mary’s as the basement boys desperately search for a win. Newcastle makes the long trek down south after their worst performance of the season at the hands of fellow seasiders, Bournemouth. The Magpies will be rampant and seeking a result to ensure that it was a solitary off day. It could end up being an extremely tiresome afternoon for Southampton, who are on course to be the worst side in Premier League history. 

Southampton vs Newcastle Prediction: Saints to be battered once again

England, Premier League, Saturday, January 25th, 15:00 (UK)

Newcastle’s impressive run was ended in empathic fashion by Bournemouth on the weekend, with many not predicting the away side to put four past the Magpies. After the game, Eddie Howe said, “I think, from our viewpoint, we looked fatigued, we looked tired. The game in midweek took a lot out of us. From minute one, we didn’t look ourselves… Our usual zip, bounce, and intensity wasn’t there, and we struggled to live with them.” Now, with a week of rest to lick their wounds, they should be up for it to get back to winning ways, and there is no better team to face at the minute than the worst side in the division. 

Newcastle’s price to win the game is not backable on its own. They are such heavy favourites, but an angle to get Newcastle onside is for them to have a field day at St Mary’s. Newcastle have netted three or more on five occasions this season, four of which were in their recent winning run. When Eddie Howe’s side faced the four worst defences in the league, the only team they failed to score three against was Southampton in the season opener, as they had 10 men for an hour but still managed to win 1-0. In the other three, they beat Ipswich and Leicester 4-0 and Wolves 3-0. 

When backing a side to score three or more, it’s optimal to do it against a team that is poor at the back, and Southampton is comfortably the worst in the division at defending. The Saints have conceded 50 goals now. The xGA supports that they’ve conceded a huge volume of chances in their games, with a 51.1 xGA from 22 matches. Even when defending with a back five, it never feels like they’ll stop teams scoring. The weekend’s hosts have conceded at least three times in 11 of their 22 Premier League games, a worrying trait.

The last thing the worst defensive side needs to face at the moment when staring down the barrel of relegation is Newcastle’s Alexander Isak. The Swedish forward has been in scintillating form the past couple of months, boosting his league goal total to 15 while assisting five times. He is doing exactly what you need from your main striker, scoring 40% of all of Newcastle’s goals. While they are only averaging 1.68 goals per game in the Premier League, the data tells a different story versus teams who were promoted. Including last season, six of the nine games have seen Newcastle score three or more goals. During those nine games, they have averaged  3.6 goals a game. 

• Southampton vs Newcastle Prediction: Newcastle Over 2.5 goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET) 

Southampton vs Newcastle Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, January 22nd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Southampton vs Newcastle Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups Prediction: Saints only shining light out and Newcastle squad depth

Tyler Dibling has been a breath of fresh air in this wretched Saints side, and he is sadly out until mid-February with an ankle injury. This is a massive loss, as he adds an extra dimension to their attack due to his ability to draw fouls at a high rate. The young English forward is third-best in the league when he is fouled, which ends in a shot-ending sequence. The only other regular first-team player, Jack Stephens, won’t feature again for another couple of weeks. While Ivan Juric has almost a full complement, the three at the back he has opted for recently have been breached a lot. It’s not just a personnel problem, but the system doesn’t work for the players at the club. 

One of the only positives for Eddie Howe’s squad from that 4-1 defeat to the Cherries is that no one picked up an injury, meaning there shouldn’t be a lasting negative impact from that game. The injury Harvey Barnes suffered recently, which puts him out until the middle of February, is more of a concern, as he has been a useful option in the front three, supporting Gordon and Isak. Injuries to bit-part players like Callum Wilson and Jamal Lascelles aren’t going to have a significant impact, with both seeing limited minutes when fit. It is possible they get this game put to bed early so Howe can make subs and rest players with the important upcoming games. The availability of Isak, Gordon and Guimares is crucial for that second leg against Arsenal. 

Southampton possible starting lineup:
Ramsdale; Sugawara, Bree, Bednarek, Harwood-Bellis, Walker-Peters; Downes, Aribo, Fernandes; Onuachu, Armstrong

Newcastle possible starting lineup:
Dubravka; Livramento, Schar, Burn, Hall; Guimares, Tonali, Joelintonl; Gordon, Isak, Murphy

Match Stats: Saints poor record and lack of goals

• Newcastle haven’t lost in the last six games between the two, winning five of these games. 
• In the reverse fixture, Newcastle held out for an hour with ten men and even managed to score. Ultimately, they won the game 1-0. 
• Southampton has four players who each scored two goals. The lowest top scorer for a club in the Premier League currently. 

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