Serie A Transfers Window Boosts Top-4 Odds

As one of the most action-packed winter transfer markets in recent years came to a close, it was clear that several Serie A clubs felt the need to bolster their sides and address past mistakes. 

Leading the charge were AC Milan and Juventus, both vying for that crucial fourth Champions League spot, essential for their financial stability. 

Our Italian football expert Daniele Fisichella assesses how January’s transfers have shaped the outright markets in Italy’s top flight.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

New firepower for the ‘Old Lady’ and the Rossoneri

In a bold mid-season move, both Milan and Juve strengthened their squads by acquiring new strikers.

Juventus’ acquisition of Kolo Muani has already paid dividends with three goals in two matches. 

The Bianconeri desperately needed somebody who could give Dusan Vlahovic some rest and help unlock tight defences (Juve are only fifth in Serie for xG, with 37.18). 

Defenders Alberto Costa, Renato Veiga and Lloyd Kelly were also brought in to add more depth to the squad. Since Gleison Bremer’s injury in early October 2024, the defence has only kept seven clean sheets in all competitions. 

Milan took things further by snapping up two centre-forwards: Santiago Gimenez, a €40 million investment who has scored 65 times for Feyenoord (incidentally AC Milan’s next opponent in the Champions League) in two and a half seasons.

Alongside him is Joao Felix, who hopes to rekindle the magic of his early Benfica and Atletico Madrid days. 

This reshuffle came at the cost of Alvaro Morata’s departure (who collected 0.39 xG per 90 minutes in Serie A), a bold admission from Milan of a failed investment last summer. 

BETSie gives Sergio Conceiçao’s side a 21% chance of securing a top-four finish, a figure notably higher than the implied probability of 18.2% from the current betting odds. 

Meanwhile, the ‘Old Lady’ boast a 50.6% likelihood of qualifying for next season’s Champions League, suggesting that wagering on even odds could be a wise choice.

Conte’s left with a gap to fill

Elsewhere, Atalanta handed the responsibility for Nicolò Zaniolo’s resurgence to Fiorentina and made important signings in Daniel Maldini and Stefan Posch. However, injuries to Ademola Lookman and Gianluca Scamacca have put pressure on Mateo Retegui as the sole striker.

Roma’s much-anticipated revolution fizzled out. While reinforcements like Devyne Rensch plugged gaps, they did little to revamp their starting lineup. This reflected poorly on summer investments, such as Enzo Le Fee or Samuel Dahl, who are now out on loan. 

At the other end of the table, both Venezia and Monza appear resigned to their fate, having sold some of their best players in a nod to anticipated relegation. 

BETSie projects that only 0.6 points will separate the two sides at the end of the season. Therefore, betting on the Lagunari to finish bottom of Serie A could be a shrewd move. 

The biggest disappointment, however, came from Napoli. 

The sale of fan favourite Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to PSG left Antonio Conte searching for quality replacements, such as Alejandro Garnacho or Karim Adeyemi. They ended up with surplus Noah Okafor from AC Milan, who has collected only 1.55 xG and 0.32 expected assists all season. 

While it could be financially beneficial, this move has raised concerns over their Scudetto aspirations. Despite this, they’re currently projected to finish just two points below Inter Milan in the final standings. 

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