Serie A Tight Title Race Is Bettors' Dream Scenario

Inter Milan have regained their stride, while Napoli faltered, setting the stage for a gripping conclusion to the Serie A season. 

With Atalanta also in the mix, the title race promises to remain electrifying till the very end. Our Italian football expert Daniele Fisichella has assessed each team’s chances. 

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

A crucial win for the Nerazzurri

Shaking off a recent defeat to Fiorentina, Inter demonstrated resilience with a gutsy 2-1 victory over the same opponents on Monday, closing the gap to just one point behind leaders Napoli. 

Initially looking at the prospect of being six points adrift of Antonio Conte’s side, the Nerazzurri have turned the tables with determination.

Despite missing Marcus Thuram, who came off injured after 28 minutes, and Hakan Calhanoglu, who was subbed off at half time, Inter managed to hold off Fiorentina. 

It was an important win, albeit with some difficulty—quite a change from the previous season when the reigning champions easily established and maintained their leads. 

The team’s offensive capabilities are undeniable, and their adaptability remains a significant strength, with Inter scoring a league-leading 58 goals, twenty more than Napoli.

However, Simone Inzaghi faces a challenge as his side has struggled to win on the six occasions in Serie A where they have conceded first. 

The need for additional players to contribute to the goals, beyond top strikers Lautaro Martinez and Thuram, has become apparent. 

Marko Arnautovic’s first Serie A goal provides a hopeful sign in this regard, as does the return of Francesco Acerbi to full fitness.The next two weekends could be decisive in the title race, with Napoli travelling to Lazio and Inter playing the ‘derby d’Italia’ against Juventus, ahead of the top of the table clash, in Naples, on 2 March. 

The margin for error remains slim for both teams.

Have Napoli peaked too early?

Following Inter Milan’s 3-0 defeat against Fiorentina last week, Napoli briefly emerged as the bookmakers’ favorites, with odds of 2.00, to claim the Scudetto for the first time this season. 

Currently, Napoli appears weary, struggling to change pace and stamp their authority on matches. Despite contributions from midfielders Scott McTominay and Zambo Anguissa (11 goals together), Conte’s men’s struggles in front of goal are evident, as they only have the fifth best conversion rate in Serie A. 

However, as Conte emphasized, their seven consecutive wins and two draws across the last nine games (with no defeats since early December) underline an extraordinary improvement from last season.  

The pressing question, however, is whether Napoli has hit its peak, both physically and tactically.

Lacking European commitments, Napoli can benefit from focusing solely on domestic fixtures—a strategy previously mastered by Conte during his successful stints with Juventus and Chelsea. 

BETSiE now gives Antonio Conte’s Napoli a 70% chance of finishing in the top two and a 28% chance of winning the Scudetto. 

This marks nearly a 6% drop from projections two weeks ago after Napoli dropped points in consecutive games against Roma and Udinese. 

Nonetheless, this is still a substantial increase from our projections at the start of the season, when Napoli was given just a 3% chance of winning the title. They’re now projected to finish the season with 80.4 points, trailing Inter Milan’s projected tally of 82.9 by 2.5 points.

Still a three horse race

Atalanta, while seemingly an outsider with just a 9.3% chance of winning the title, shouldn’t be overlooked. 

Gian Piero Gasperini’s team offers a compelling narrative, currently sitting five points behind the top and ranking second in terms of expected points ahead of Napoli. 

Projected to finish with 76.7 points, Atalanta could disrupt the establishment, especially with a favorable schedule with games against relegation-threatened teams Cagliari, Empoli, and Venezia. 

Their capacity to rotate the squad effectively, particularly amidst Champions League duties, will be crucial as they aim to narrow the gap at the top of the table. 

Yet, it’s Inter Milan that currently stands out, their title-winning probability jumping to 61.8%.

This marks a significant boost, nearly 4%, compared to two weeks ago despite them only collecting four points against AC Milan and their two encounters with Fiorentina. 

Ahead of their clash with Juventus, Inter Milan enjoys the rare benefit of a full week’s rest, an occurrence seen just once this season back in September when Inzaghi’s men secured a 3-2 victory in Udine following a 2-1 derby defeat. 

The Nerazzurri are not scheduled for Champions League action until early March, and this unusually light calendar could prove crucial as they aim to retain their crown. 

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