Serie A Relegation Battle: New Managers’ Bounce Shakes Up Odds

The relegation fight in Serie A has reached new heights, with only newly-promoted Venezia currently occupying a spot in the danger zone. With just six points separating 13th-place Genoa from the bottom of the table, the stakes have never been higher, and the battle to stay up is set to be one of the tightest in Europe’s top five leagues.

A Tight Relegation Fight

The relegation scrap in Serie A is more intense than ever, with eight teams currently in danger. This narrow margin creates exciting opportunities for fans and bettors alike, as the final spots at the bottom of the table remain uncertain.

Our in-house projections suggest that 36 points will likely be enough for survival this season, which is higher than the usual “safe zone” of 40 points. Remarkably, despite the pressure, the teams fighting relegation are showing significant improvements, largely thanks to managerial changes.

Genoa’s Revival Under Patrick Vieira

Patrick Vieira’s arrival at Genoa has sparked a remarkable turnaround. When he took over, Genoa were lacking confidence, goals, and struggling near the relegation zone. However, under Vieira, the team has gone unbeaten in their last six Serie A matches, including a solid 0-0 draw against AC Milan at the San Siro.

While Genoa have struggled to find the back of the net—failing to score in two of their recent games—the team’s defensive structure, bolstered by Vieira’s tactical acumen, has been impressive. Sitting in 13th place with 16 points, Genoa are now in a much stronger position, and their recent form makes them a team to watch for bettors.

Lecce’s Transformation Under Marco Giampaolo

Similar to Genoa, Lecce have also benefited from a managerial change, with Marco Giampaolo leading a resurgence in form. Lecce have earned seven points from their last four matches, including a dramatic equaliser against Juventus. Despite injury setbacks, particularly in defence, Lecce’s resilient performances have kept them competitive.

Giampaolo’s tactical adjustments and the emergence of young talents like Medon Berisha have made Lecce a much tougher side to beat. Their recent revival makes them a dangerous team in the relegation race.

The Bottom Teams: Monza, Como, and Verona

Several other teams are fighting for survival, including Monza, Como, and Verona. Monza, despite flashes of brilliance from players like Caprari and Maldini, have been plagued by inconsistency and are currently sitting 11 points lower than at the same stage last season. Coach Alessandro Nesta’s future is uncertain as the pressure mounts.

Como, navigating their first Serie A season, have struggled but secured a vital win against Roma, their first since September. Based on expected goals (xG) data, Como would be comfortably mid-table, making them an interesting team to follow for bettors.

Verona, on the other hand, have seen their form collapse dramatically, conceding 39 goals—the second-worst defensive record in Europe’s top five leagues. With such defensive vulnerabilities, Verona are among the favourites to face relegation.

Betting on Relegation: Who Will Go Down?

According to our projections, Monza, Verona, and Venezia are the most likely candidates for relegation. Venezia, despite being bottom of the table, still have three crucial matches coming up against direct rivals Cagliari, Empoli, and Verona, which could make or break their survival hopes.

However, the gap between teams in the bottom eight remains tight, meaning relegation odds are expected to fluctuate throughout the season. Bettors should keep an eye on this fluid situation, as the odds for relegation could stay above 2.00 for much of the campaign.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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