Scott Thornton’s Premier League Props: Navigating Winter Breaks

Scott Thornton delves into Serie A and the French Super Cup with La Liga and the Bundesliga still on their winter break.

In Italy on Saturday, we have a bet on Fiorentina vs Napoli as Antonio Conte’s side look to stay ahead of the chasing back and keep pace with Atalanta. The Rome Derby takes place on Sunday as Lazio aim to stay ahead of their rivals. PSG and Monaco travel to Doha for their game and it promises to be entertaining.

• Fiorentina vs Napoli: Over 24.5 Shots In The Match
• Roma vs Lazio: Under 26.5 Shots In The Match
• PSG vs Monaco: Over 27.5 Shots In The Match

Acca odds: 6.25

The Football Betting Podcast, powered by bettingexpert: OUT NOW!

Scott Thornton, Sam Ingram, Daniele Fisichella and Daniel Jenkins return for the first show of 2025…

(02:00) – The Festive Period & Trent Alexander-Arnold
(07:35) – New Management in Milan and Betting Resolutions
(13:00) – FIRST BET: Liverpool vs Manchester United
(22:45) – SECOND BET: Tottenham vs Newcastle
(25:55) – THIRD BET: Fiorentina vs Napoli
(31:44) – FOURTH BET: Bournemouth vs Everton
(37:14) – FIFTH BET: Wolves vs Nottingham Forest
(40:48) – SIXTH BET: Roma vs Lazio
(45:00) – POD TREBLE

Fiorentina vs Napoli: Not So Electric

Italy, Serie A, Saturday, 4th January, 17:00 (UK)

Fiorentina are nine points off the top in Serie A. The team are 5th but they do have a game in hand on most of their rivals. La Viola lost their manager in the summer but will be delighted with the way Raffaele Palladino has taken to the role. They showed spirit as they scored a late equaliser in Turin last time out and they face another big team here.

Antonio Conte took over a Napoli side that missed out on European football and has turned them into title contenders. The lighter fixture list has helped the manager navigate the first half of the season in style so they are level on points with Atalanta in 1st.

La Viola have played four home matches against teams currently in the top half of the table. Over 24.5 shots has won in all of those games with an average of 30.75 per game. They are a very capable attacking side and they will want to take the game to the visitors here.

Napoli haven’t been the most electric team to watch this season. Their away matches have seen 22.22 shots on average but this game has the potential to open up. The meetings between these teams last season saw 29 and 28 shots and we could reach a similar mark once again if we see an early goal.

• Selection: Over 24.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Roma vs Lazio: Cagey or Not So Cagey?

Italy, Serie A, Sunday, 5th January, 19:45 (UK)

Claudio Ranieri has returned to Roma amidst a difficult season for the club. Daniele De Rossi was sacked early on and his replacement, Ivan Juric, was also dismissed. Now the club face a battle to qualify for any of the European competitions but there have been some signs of encouragement in recent weeks. The squad look United under the legendary boss and confidence would grow if they can secure three points against their local rivals.

Lazio are on course to qualify for the Champions League. Their only defeat in their last six competitive matches came against Inter. However, the manner of that 6-0 loss was cause for concern. Marco Baroni’s side are currently 4th in the table after drawing to Atalanta in their last game.

The Rome Derby is often a cagey affair so we are backing under 26.5 shots in this one. The last five head-to-heads between the sides have seen just four goals overall. Those matches have seen an average of 18.4 shots with this bet landing in all five.

Marco Baroni’s side’s matches have seen an average of 23.94 shots in Serie A this season, the fifth fewest in the division.

• Selection: Under 26.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

PSG vs Monaco: Back and Forth

France, French Super Cup, Sunday, 5th January, 16:35 (UK)

PSG, the reigning French champions, head to Doha to take on Monaco in the Super Cup. Luis Enrique’s side won the domestic double last season so they face the team that finished 2nd in the league. They are on course to win Ligue 1 with ease once again. Les Parisiens are currently 10 points clear of their rivals.

Adi Hutter has done remarkably well since taking over at Monaco but closing the gap to PSG is a tall order. The club are unable to match the champions in the transfer market so they are reliant on young players.

Les Parisien’s domestic fixtures this season have seen an average of 28.06 shots per game. They are often heavy favourites so they are contributing with 18.94 of those attempts but they face an opponent that is capable of causing problems here. There were 30 shots in PSG’s most recent match and we are banking on a wealth of shots here.

There were 32 shots when Monaco squared off against PSG last month so we are tipping over 27.5 shots here. This is a bet that has won in the last three clashes between the sides.

• Selection: Over 27.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

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