Scott Thornton’s Premier League Props: More Woes For Manchester City

Scott Thornton brings you his Premier League props bets for match day 17.

Manchester City are looking to end their miserable run of form when they face Aston Villa in the early kick-off. Brentford vs Forest and Crystal Palace vs Arsenal are other games on Saturday. On Sunday, it’s Fulham vs Southampton and Manchester United vs Bournemouth at 14:00 before Tottenham host Liverpool.

• Aston Villa vs Manchester City: Over 1.5 Offsides For Manchester City
• Brentford vs Nottingham Forest: The Bees are Deadly on Home Soil  
• Crystal Palace vs Arsenal: Under 20.5 Tackles For Crystal Palace
• Fulham vs Southampton: Over 28.5 Throws In The Match
• Manchester United vs Bournemouth: Under 27.5 Shots In The Match
• Tottenham vs Liverpool: Over 33.5 Throws In The Match

Acca odds: 36.82

Aston Villa vs Manchester City: High Defensive Line Provides Opportunity

England, Premier League, Saturday, 21st December, 12:30 (UK)

Aston Villa have the chance to go above Manchester City in Saturday’s early game. The Villains beat the champions in this fixture last season and another win would be a huge boost to their Champions League hopes.

Pep Guardiola has been unable to come up with a remedy for Manchester City’s recent woes. They went ahead against United last weekend but succumbed to defeat thanks to two late goals. City have now won just one of their last 11 matches in all competitions. They are without a victory in their last seven away games. 

Since Unai Emery took over at Aston Villa, the team have been forcing the most throws in the Premier League with an average of 3.86 offsides per game. Those numbers have dropped this season but the average of 2.25 offsides per Villa game would still see out bet land. 

Manchester City’s offside numbers have dwindled this season but they were caught offside twice in their last away game in the league.  Pep’s side were also caught offside five times in this fixture last season. 

• Selection: Over 1.5 Offsides For Manchester City (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Brentford vs Nottingham Forest: The Bees are Deadly on Home Soil 

England, Premier League, Saturday, 21st December, 15:00 (UK)

The stark difference between Brentford’s home and away from is incredible. The Bees have picked up more points than any other team in the Premier League in front of their own fans and they will be hoping that continues here. They are unbeaten in their eight matches at the Gtech Community Stadium, winning seven.

Nottingham Forest beat Aston Villa last weekend to climb into the top four and continue their remarkable start to the season. Nuno Espirito took over with the team battling relegation last season but they are now above Manchester City after 16 matches of the current campaign. 

Brentford have looked dangerous going forward at home so we are backing them to have over 12.5 shots here. They are averaging 14 shots per game in front of their own fans and could find themselves chasing the game against a very capable Forest side, which would only help this bet.

Nuno’s side are conceding 13.31 shots per league game on average, which is above the line set here. The data looks even more promising in their away matches, where they are allowing their opponents to have 14.88 shots per game on average. 

• Selection: Over 12.5 Shots For Brentford (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal: No Need For the Eagles to Fly in 

England, Premier League, Saturday, 21st December, 17:30 (UK)

Crystal Palace were eliminated from the League Cup by Arsenal midweek but now they have the chance to exact revenge. Olive Glasner’s side are unbeaten in their last five league games, picking up nine points in the process. The good run of form has lifted them out of the bottom three. 

Mikel Arteta’s side came into the season wanting to win the title. They still have every chance of accomplishing that but the manager needs to address their problems in front of goal. Arsenal are overly reliant on set pieces and are struggling to make the most of opportunities in open play. They could only manage a 0-0 draw at home to Everton last weekend.

The Eagles had 30 tackles as they lost against Arsenal on Wednesday night but the league meeting between the sides tend to see fewer. Palace have had 18 tackles or less in their last fine league games against the Gunners with an average of 15.8 per game. Glasner’s men had 18 tackles against Manchester City in their last Premier League home game.

Arsenal are forcing an average of 19.75 tackles per league game on the road this season, just below the line set by the bookmaker.

• Selection: Under 20.5 Tackles For Crystal Palace (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Fulham vs Southampton: The Saints Are Less Passive 

England, Premier League, Sunday, 22nd December, 14:00 (UK)

Fulham have performed exceptionally well in the first part of the season. They are sitting 8th in the table and are capable of earning their best-ever finish in the Premier League, which was 7th back in the 2008/09 campaign. The Cottagers have lost just one of their last eight league games and managed to draw 2-2 at Anfield last weekend.

The outlook is far less positive for Southampton. A 5-0 defeat against Tottenham last weekend spelt the end for Russel Martin. The Saints are now searching for a new manager and are nine points from safety. 

Marco Silva’s side’s matches have seen plenty of throws this season with an average of 33.75 per game, above the league average of 32.96. This increases to 36.75 if we only include the data from their outings at Craven Cottage. There have been 29 throws or more in seven of their eight home matches.

Throws have been scarce in Southampton matches but there were signs that could change with Russel Martin no longer at the helm. There were 42 throws as they were beaten by Liverpool in the League Cup midweek. 

• Selection: Over 28.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Manchester United vs Bournemouth: Amorim Seeks Control 

England, Premier League, Sunday, 22nd December, 14:00 (UK)

Manchester United earned a memorable win over Manchester City at the Etihad last weekend but the future of Marcus Rashford has dominated the headlines over the past week. Ruben Amorim chose to leave the attacker out of the squad, along with Alejandro Garnacho. The new United boss will be hoping to see whoever he picks perform here.

Andoni Iraola has certainly made an impact. He came in ahead of last season and Bournemouth have gone from strength to strength since. They come into this clash on a run of four league matches unbeaten. The Cherries crushed United 3-0 in this fixture last season.

There were 30 shots in this fixture last season but Manchester United matches saw the most attempts in the league in that campaign thanks to the chaotic nature of Erik Ten Hag’s tactical setup. Things have changed under Amorim. His league games in charge of United have seen an average of 21.6 shots with this bet landing in three of those four matches. 

Bournemouth’s matches have seen an average of 29.75 shots per game, above the line we are betting under here. However, the home side should be capable of holding onto the ball and taking some of the sting out of the game. 

• Selection: Under 27.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 18/10

Tottenham vs Liverpool: Throw Count Trending Upwards at Tottenham

England, Premier League, Sunday, 22nd December, 14:00 (UK)

Tottenham secured all three points in this fixture last season but wins over Liverpool are rare. Ange Postecoglou has struggled to get a tune out of this Spurs team in the first part of this season. They are stranded in 10th place after 16 matches. 

Arne Slot has steered his team to the top of the Premier League and they are the odds-on favourites to win the title. However, Chelsea are hot on Liverpool’s tails after Slot’s men dropped points against Fulham last weekend. The long-time leaders could find themselves in 2nd place on Christmas Day if they drop points here. 

Spurs have hosted two of the traditional ‘big six’ in the Premier League this season and over 33.5 shots has won in both of those games. This bet has landed in their last three league games in front of their own fans.

Liverpool’s league outings have seen an average 35.07 throws per game. This increases slightly to 35.43 in their away matches. There have been 34 throws or more on the last five occasions that the Reds have played at this ground with those matches averaging 36.8 throws.

• Selection: Over 33.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Premier League Props Acca Tips Odds via bet365 as at 07:22, December 20th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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