Scott Thornton’s European Props: Six Best Bets

Scott Thornton singles out matches from the Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A for this week’s props bets.

In Germany, we look ahead to Bochum vs Dortmund and St. Pauli vs Freiburg before the heavyweight clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich. Real Madrid are looking to retain their advantage in La Liga when they face Osasuna on Saturday. We also have a tip for Villarreal vs Valencia. Our bet in Italy comes in Milan vs Verona.

• Bochum vs Dortmund: Over 13.5 Shots For Dortmund
• St. Pauli vs Freiburg: Over 12.5 Shots For St. Pauli
• Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich: Under 25.5 Shots In The Match
• Osasuna vs Real Madrid: Over 15.5 Shots For Real Madrid
• Villarreal vs Valencia: Over 23.5 Shots In The Match
• Milan vs Verona: Under 19.5 Shots For Milan

Acca odds: 33.33

Bochum vs Dortmund: Kovac Keen to Attack

Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, 15th January, 14:30 (UK)

Bochum are bottom of the Bundesliga and heading towards relegation. They have picked up just 13 points from their 21 matches after failing to win any of their first 13 games. Dieter Hecking’s side have picked up six points in seven matches since the winter break but it seems to be too little, too late.

Niko Kovac has taken over at Dortmund after a poor first half of the season under Nuri Sahin. The team were beaten 2-1 at home by Stuttgart last weekend despite restricting their opponents to just four attempts. They did manage to bounce back in the Champions League by beating Sporting 3-0. Kovac now needs his side to start winning in the Bundesliga if they are to have any hope of qualifying for Europe.

The Bundesliga’s bottom side are conceding an average of 14.86 shots per game, only three teams have conceded more. Bochum conceded 23 shots when they faced Dortmund earlier in the season. They allowed Dortmund to have 14 shots the last time they played at this ground so over 13.5 appeals.

Dortmund have racked up 16 shots in both of their competitive games under their new manager. They also hit the 16-shot mark in their most recent away game in the Bundesliga.

• Selection: Over 13.5 Shots For Dortmund (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

St. Pauli vs Freiburg: Plucky St.Pauli

Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, 15th January, 14:30 (UK)

Remaining in the top tier of German football is the aim for St. Pauli and they are well placed to do just that. The team are currently 14th, seven points clear of the relegation playoff. However, they have managed to win just two of their 10 home games in the Bundesliga, a record that must improve if they are to remain at this level long term.

Freiburg have their sights set on Europe. They are 6th, just six points off 3rd place Eintracht Frankfurt. Julian Schuster’s team have been very poor on the road. The 1-0 win over Bochum in their last away game was their first in nine.

St. Pauli racked up 10 shots in the reverse fixture but they held a 2-0 lead at the break. The newly promoted side went on to have just two shots in the second half but should have more in front of their own fans. Alexander Blessin’s side have had 13 attempts or more in three of their last four home games.

Breisgau-Brasilianer are conceding plenty of shots in away matches. Their last five Bundesliga games away from the Stade Europa-Park have seen them concede an average of 18.2 shots per match.

• Selection: Over 12.5 Shots For St. Pauli (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich: Tactical Battle at the BayArena

Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, 15th January, 17:30 (UK)

This is the headline act in the Bundesliga this weekend as the reigning champions take on a Bayern Munich side that are poised to regain their crown. Bayer Leverkusen won the title unbeaten last season and need a win here to have any hope of retaining the trophy.

Vincent Kompany was drafted in after a lengthy managerial search and the Belgian has restored confidence in Bavaria. Bayern have won their last five competitive matches and sit eight points clear in the league. They are also on course to reach the last 16 of the Champions League.

This promises to be an intriguing tactical battle so we are backing under 25.5 shots in the match. Bayer Leverkusen’s matches in the league have seen 26.05 shots on average but they have got 15.71 of those. Xabi Alonso’s side are unlikely to reach those numbers here.

Bayern Munich are conceding the fewest shots in the Bundesliga with their opponents averaging 5.38. They have already squared off against Leverkusen twice this season after being drawn together in the cup and those matches saw 19 and 21 shots. There were 23 shots the last time the teams played in Leverkusen.

• Selection: Under 25.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Osasuna vs Real Madrid: Ancelotti’s Mavericks Love to Shoot

Spain, La Liga, Saturday, 15th February, 15:15 (UK)

Osasuna have fought their way into the top half of La Liga and will have one eye on a place in Europe. However, they haven’t beaten Real Madrid since 2011 so a setback appears likely on Saturday.

Carlo Ancelotti’s side snatched victory at the Etihad midweek and look poised to progress in the Champions League. Los Blancos cannot afford to turn their full attention to the second leg with a closely contested title race in Spain so expect them to put on a strong showing here.

Los Rojillos aren’t conceding a great deal of shots with an average of 11.78 for their opponents in La Liga this season but this tends to go out of the window when they face Real Madrid. Ancelotti’s men racked up 18 attempts when the teams locked horns in November. In fact, Osasuna have conceded 16 shots or more in eight of their last nine meetings with Los Blancos.

Real Madrid have played 13 matches across all competitions in 2025 and are averaging 20.77 shots per game. They had 20 attempts at the Etihad midweek and their superb forward line should rack up a few once again.

• Selection: Over 15.5 Shots For Real Madrid (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Villarreal vs Valencia: Visitors Determined Not to Sink Against The Yellow Submarine

Spain, La Liga, Saturday, 15th February, 20:00 (UK)

Villarreal are 5th in La Liga, four points off a guaranteed Champions League place. Spain could well earn an additional spot in Europe’s elite club competition so increasing the gap could prove to be hugely important for the home side. They have won three of their last four games and earned a point away to Atletico Madrid.

Valencia are focused on avoiding the drop. Things were looking ominous at one stage but three wins in their last four league games mean they are now just a point from safety. A result against the Yellow Submarine would provide a huge boost.

Marcelino García Toral’s side’s matches have been the most shot-friendly in the league with an average of 26.87 per game. This increases to 28.18 if we only include the data from their home matches so over 23.5 looks a good bet here. There have been 24 shots or more in eight of their 10 home games in La Liga.

Shot numbers are far lower in Valencia matches but there were 31 attempts when they faced Villarreal earlier in the season. There were 27 shots the last time they played at this ground.

• Selection: Over 23.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Milan vs Verona: One Eye on the Champions League

Italy, Serie A, Saturday, 15th February, 19:45 (UK)

It’s been a tumultuous season for Milan. Paulo Fonseca was unable to get this team going so they have turned to Sergio Conceicao. Results have largely been good under the new man with seven wins in 12 matches across all competitions but making it into the top four looks a tall order.

Verona are 15th, three points clear of the bottom three. They have won three of their last five away games in Serie A with the only defeat coming against Napoli, who are top. Paolo Zanetti’s team are capable of shocking the home side here.

The Rossoneri will have one eye on the second leg of their Champions League clash with Feyenoord so their shot line looks high here. Milan have had 19 shots or fewer in 11 of their 12 games under Conceicao so unders is the way to go here. They have averaged 14.25 shots in those 12 games.

I Gialloblu are conceding an average of 14.54 shots per game in Serie A. They have conceded 19 shots or fewer in their last six league outings. This bet has also landed in their last eight games against Milan.

• Selection: Under 19.5 Shots For Milan (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

European Props Acca Tips Odds via bet365 as at 16:31, February 13th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

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