Roma, Nice, Freiburg: Is It Worth Backing Europe’s Most In-Form Teams?

Three teams across Europe’s top five leagues have grabbed the spotlight as the most in-form sides in recent weeks. 

Roma are unbeaten in their last 11 Serie A matches, while Nice have triumphed in five of their past six Ligue 1 fixtures. In the Bundesliga, Freiburg have emerged as dark horses in the race for the top four, thanks to their surprising recent results. 

With two months to go until the end of the domestic football seasons in Italy, France, and Germany, what are the best betting strategies for these sides? Our European football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has analysed the numbers case by case.

‘Sir’ Claudio hasn’t lost his Midas touch

When Claudio Ranieri came out of retirement to take charge of the Giallorossi in November 2024, Roma had already changed managers twice—Daniele De Rossi and Ivan Juric—and were languishing in 12th place, averaging 1.08 points per game, 12 points adrift of the fourth spot. 

Due to a poor start to the season, Roma were the third least profitable team with a -58.3% return on investment (ROI) for bettors placing level-stake wagers on them. 

Fast forward four months, and fortunes have dramatically improved. Roma have amassed 27 points in the past 11 games, more than any other team in Italy’s top flight, reducing the gap to fourth place, currently occupied by Juventus, to nine points.

When Ranieri took the helm for the third time, BETSiE projected Roma would finish the season with 54 points, averaging 1.57 points and 1.46 goals per game in the remaining 25 games. 

Now, with 11 matches left—including crucial clashes against Juventus and a derby with Lazio in April—Roma are projected to finish with 59.8 points. Their chances of reaching the top six, a position they’ve secured for the past three years, have increased from 4.6% in November to 20.4%.

Bettors who put their faith in the Rome-born manager to turn the club’s fortunes around have seen a 9.1% ROI at level stakes. This performance makes Roma the fifth most profitable Serie A team since Ranieri took charge.

The next three league fixtures look promising for Roma, with matches against Empoli, Cagliari, and Lecce, all battling for Serie A survival. 

However, the Giallorossi must also contend with the Europa League Round of 16. 

BETSiE projects a regression to the mean for Ranieri’s men, with an expected 1.52 points per game for the rest of the season. A sound strategy would be to bet on Roma to collect at least five points in these next three games, considering six of their remaining eight matches are against teams in the top half of the table.

Top-3 is a realistic goal for Le Gym

Over in France, Nice are enjoying a remarkable run with four consecutive victories. 

Since early December 2024, they have lost just once in 11 league matches, amassing 26 points—only three less than leaders PSG. 

However, there have been disappointments in cup competitions, as Franck Haise’s side bowed out of the Europa League without a single victory and suffered a shock exit in the Coupe de France, where fourth-tier Stade Briochin defeated them in the Round of 16.

Currently, just three points behind second-placed Olympique de Marseille, Nice are strong contenders for next season’s Champions League qualification. Having secured a spot in the Europa League this season with a fifth-place finish last year, their objective was to qualify for European football once again. 

Now, for the first time in the past two campaigns Nice are a profitable team (16.4% ROI) for bettors in the 1×2 market. 

Furthermore underlying expected goals data support BETSiE’s current projections, which give Nice a 74.7% chance of finishing in the top four. 

However the real betting value lies in backing Haise’s team to break into the top three. Which seems feasible given that BETSiE predicts less than two points will separate Marseille—currently in second—who have overperformed by 7.59 expected points, from Nice, projected to end fourth with 62.5 points, just one short of Monaco, whom they face at the end of March.

Nice’s odds of ending in the top three are 2.10, indicating an implied probability of 47.6%, slightly lower than BETSiE’s projected 47.1%, making this a potentially valuable bet. 

As for this weekend’s match, Nice have scored two or more goals in nine out of their 11 league matches at the Allianz Riviera. 

Considering that Lyon will travel to Bucharest on Thursday for the Europa League Round of 16 first leg, and all four of their following away league matches after playing in Europe have seen both teams score and averaged 3.5 goals, betting on an Over 2.75 Goals Asian Line appears a wise choice.

It’s time to bet against the Black Forest revelation

Freiburg are enjoying an impressive run, remaining unbeaten in their last five matches. 

Over the past six games, only Bundesliga leaders Bayern Munich—who edged past the Black Forest side with a 2-1 win at the end of January—have gathered more points (16) than Freiburg’s 13. 

Alongside Mainz, Freiburg has been one of the surprise packages of the season, having finished 10th and 13th respectively in the 2023/24 campaign.

Not being involved in European competitions has certainly benefited Julian Schuster’s team, though BETSiE projects their chances of a top-four finish at just 16.5%. 

Freiburg’s relatively modest tally of 34 goals, ranking them 12th in the league, suggests they’ve outperformed their expected points by 3.71 and should, based on underlying data, occupy seventh place, three points behind Stuttgart.

However, with Mainz projected to end the season in fourth place and secure a historic Champions League qualification with just 54.5 points—the lowest tally for the position since 2007/08—Freiburg’s prospects of making it into the Champions League, at odds of 4.50 (implying a probability of 22.2%), are worth considering. 

BETSiE forecasts that up to seven teams, from Mainz to Borussia 

Monchengladbach, will finish the campaign separated by no more than five points, suggesting that average points per game for most top-four contenders will decrease over the final 10 matches. 

Freiburg currently rank as the fourth most profitable team in the Bundesliga’s 1X2 market, boasting an ROI of 11.5%. This performance is reminiscent of the 2019/20 season when they finished eighth.

However, moving forward, they are projected to average only 1.29 points per game, suggesting that betting on them to win the majority of their remaining fixtures might not be the smartest strategy.

On Saturday Freiburg host RB Leipzig, who are two points behind them in the table but are projected to finish 0.7 points ahead by BETSiE. 

With a projected goal difference of 0.12 in favour of Leipzig, backing the visitors with a 0 Asian Handicap—meaning you’ll get your money back if the match ends in a draw—could be a smart move, potentially doubling your stake.

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